← Results

The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Battle-Scarred +12.4%Factory New -10.1%Field-Tested +18.6%Minimal Wear +13.1%Well-Worn +7.9%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Red Wing
P2000 | Red Wing
1x $0.13
Bullfrog
P250 | Bullfrog
1x $0.17
Caged
SCAR-20 | Caged
2x $0.18
Aeolian Light
P90 | Aeolian Light
3x $0.25
Grip Tape
P2000 | Grip Tape
2x $0.34
The Daily Deagle
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
1x $0.41
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
30.0% $5.85
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
8.0% $2.49
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
30.0% $2.17
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
8.0% $0.96
Continuum
UMP-45 | Continuum
8.0% $0.93
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
8.0% $0.84
Max Win
$5.85 (+118.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.89 (+7.9%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+75.3%
Cost
$2.68
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGE
Total Cost $2.68
Ask Price EV $2.89 (+7.9%)
Bid Price EV $2.55 (-4.7%)
Ask Profit $0.21 (+7.9%)
Bid Profit $-0.13 (-4.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.34 (+12.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.21
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.13
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $5.85 (+118.3%)
Worst Case $0.84 (-68.8%)
Volatility +75.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 32.0%
Avg Win +$3.17
Avg Loss -$1.06
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.84 (-68.8%)
Std Dev $2.02
Avg Norm Float 0.4485
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 144h 2m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Battle-Scarred
P2000 | Red Wing (Battle-Scarred)
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 22S //TOTAL COST $2.68 //ASK PRICE EV $2.89 //BID PRICE EV $2.55 //ASK PROFIT $0.21 (+7.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.13 (-4.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +75.3% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.336375,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
      "realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 5.77,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
      "conservative_value": 4.91,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.31395,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
      "realistic_value": 2.1705,
      "optimistic_value": 2.16,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
      "conservative_value": 2.14,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:45:10.287711Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.08,
      "output_float": 0.4485,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
      "realistic_value": 0.8434999999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 0.84,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
      "conservative_value": 0.83,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:05.979024Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.08,
      "output_float": 0.4485,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
      "realistic_value": 2.4935,
      "optimistic_value": 2.49,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
      "conservative_value": 2.2,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:16.804583Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.08,
      "output_float": 0.4485,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
      "realistic_value": 0.964,
      "optimistic_value": 0.95,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
      "conservative_value": 0.82,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T05:51:56.092922Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.08,
      "output_float": 0.4485,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
      "realistic_value": 0.837,
      "optimistic_value": 0.83,
      "output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
      "conservative_value": 0.81,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:15.833977Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.08,
      "output_float": 0.4485,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
      "realistic_value": 0.9305,
      "optimistic_value": 0.92,
      "output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
      "conservative_value": 0.82,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:07.840943Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_0eb190d98ba576bba2371f22",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.13,
      "skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
      "listing_id": "500605889841671339",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:18:42.135214Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.17,
      "skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
      "listing_id": "510738989040919942",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:35.410472Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
      "listing_id": "494976390476880294",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:16:05.925745Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.2,
      "skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
      "listing_id": "518620235869812748",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:16:05.925745Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.25,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "526501587737062601",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:07.949413Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "529879287550318068",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:07.949413Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "508487136897723158",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:07.949413Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "491598690699908402",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:58.437797Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
      "listing_id": "502857689861492308",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:10.279595Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.42,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "507361123687773313",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:58.437797Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
30.0% $12.25
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
30.0% $4.43
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
8.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
8.0% $1.13
Continuum
UMP-45 | Continuum
8.0% $1.09
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
8.0% $1.05
$12.25
+156.2%
$5.67
+18.6%
30.0%+90.4%$4.78—
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
30.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
30.0% $14.73
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
8.0% $7.67
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
8.0% $2.29
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
8.0% $2.14
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
8.0% $2.05
$26.93
+120.9%
$13.79
+13.1%
60.0%+76.7%$12.19—
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
30.0% $6.12
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
30.0% $2.17
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
8.0% $1.36
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
8.0% $0.80
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
8.0% $0.74
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
8.0% $0.74
$6.12
+142.7%
$2.83
+12.4%
30.0%+84.8%$2.52—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
35.0% $12.25
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
35.0% $4.43
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
6.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
6.0% $1.13
Continuum
UMP-45 | Continuum
6.0% $1.09
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
6.0% $1.05
$12.25
+131.9%
$6.34
+20.0%
35.0%+82.1%$5.28—
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
40.0% $12.25
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
40.0% $4.63
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
4.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
4.0% $1.13
Continuum
UMP-45 | Continuum
4.0% $1.09
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
4.0% $1.05
$12.25
+106.1%
$7.08
+19.3%
40.0%+70.9%$5.94—
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
25.0% $12.25
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
25.0% $4.63
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
10.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
10.0% $1.13
Continuum
UMP-45 | Continuum
10.0% $1.09
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
10.0% $1.04
$12.25
+184.1%
$5.05
+17.2%
50.0%+97.9%$4.31—
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
20.0% $12.25
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
20.0% $4.43
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
12.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
12.0% $1.13
Continuum
UMP-45 | Continuum
12.0% $1.09
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
12.0% $1.05
$12.25
+221.4%
$4.33
+13.8%
52.0%+106.0%$3.81—
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
15.0% $12.25
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
14.0% $7.67
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
15.0% $4.43
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
14.0% $2.29
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
14.0% $2.14
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
14.0% $2.05
$12.25
+181.5%
$4.76
+9.5%
44.0%+81.1%$4.35—
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
10.0% $12.25
Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation
16.0% $7.67
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
10.0% $4.63
Cat Fight
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
16.0% $2.29
Angel Eyes
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
16.0% $2.14
Ocular
Nova | Ocular
16.0% $2.05
$12.25
+190.9%
$4.27
+1.5%
36.0%+76.4%$4.21—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4
Restricted → Classified Field-Tested
The End
AWP | The End
40.0% $27.17
Ice Coaled
AWP | Ice Coaled
20.0% $11.85
Smoking Kills
MP7 | Smoking Kills
20.0% $10.31
Mirror Mosaic
Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic
20.0% $9.64
$27.17
+94.5%
$17.23
+23.3%
40.0%+58.3%$13.97—
FS

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