The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Focus
1x $1.34
Broken Record
2x $1.35
Red Wing
1x $1.45
Creep
2x $1.43
Aeolian Light
3x $1.92
The Daily Deagle
1x $3.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $26.93
Liquidation
8.0% $19.42
Trace Lock
30.0% $14.73
Cat Fight
8.0% $6.50
Angel Eyes
8.0% $6.27
Continuum
8.0% $6.14
Max Win
$26.93 (+50.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$16.05 (-10.1%)
Win %
38.0%
Volatility
+46.1%
Cost
$17.86
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $17.86
Ask Price EV $16.05 (-10.1%)
Bid Price EV $15.20 (-14.9%)
Ask Profit $-1.81 (-10.1%)
Bid Profit $-2.66 (-14.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.85 (+4.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.81
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.66
Risk
Win Probability 38.0%
Loss Probability 62.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+50.8%)
Worst Case $6.09 (-65.9%)
Volatility +46.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 32.0%
Avg Win +$7.49
Avg Loss -$7.51
Bottom 5% Outcome $6.09 (-65.9%)
Std Dev $8.23
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 144h 7m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Factory New
$1.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Factory New
$1.35 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Factory New
$1.38 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$1.45 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$1.92 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.11 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 17S //TOTAL COST $17.86 //ASK PRICE EV $16.05 //BID PRICE EV $15.20 //ASK PROFIT $-1.81 (-10.1%) //BID PROFIT $-2.66 (-14.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 38.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +46.1% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$26.93
+$9.07
+50.8%
$26.63
+$8.77
+49.1%
$0.30
1.1%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$19.42
+$1.56
+8.7%
$16.07
-$1.79
-10.0%
$3.35
17.2%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$14.73
-$3.13
-17.5%
$13.15
-$4.71
-26.4%
$1.58
10.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$6.50
-$11.36
-63.6%
$6.35
-$11.51
-64.4%
$0.15
2.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$6.27
-$11.59
-64.9%
$6.21
-$11.65
-65.2%
$0.06
1.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$6.14
-$11.72
-65.6%
$6.12
-$11.74
-65.7%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$6.09
-$11.77
-65.9%
$6.07
-$11.79
-66.0%
$0.02
0.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.052455,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.048958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 14.7335,
"optimistic_value": 14.66,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:24.219267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 6.27,
"optimistic_value": 6.27,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:43.003753Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 19.4155,
"optimistic_value": 19.37,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 16.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:11:14.220331Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 6.5005,
"optimistic_value": 6.49,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 6.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:37:05.762280Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 6.09,
"optimistic_value": 6.09,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 6.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:47.383085Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 6.1370000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:40.324662Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0eb190d98ba576bba2371f22",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "519746188258177352",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:56:00.349009Z"
},
{
"price": 1.35,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "490472790736724379",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:12.883372Z"
},
{
"price": 1.38,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "511864836540599481",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:12.883372Z"
},
{
"price": 1.45,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "498354089953558939",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:16.002064Z"
},
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "507361289453312365",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:37.051667Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "524248990833803271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:37.051667Z"
},
{
"price": 1.92,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "524249787961161591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:25.395526Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "520872088106386248",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:25.395526Z"
},
{
"price": 2.11,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "510738989040662074",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:25.395526Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:41.768837Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.43 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.13 Continuum 8.0% $1.09 Angel Eyes 8.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +156.2% | $5.67 +18.6% | 30.0% | +90.4% | $4.78 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 30.0% $14.73 Liquidation 8.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 8.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 8.0% $2.14 Ocular 8.0% $2.05 | $26.93 +120.9% | $13.79 +13.1% | 60.0% | +76.7% | $12.19 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 30.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.17 Liquidation 8.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 8.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 8.0% $0.74 Ocular 8.0% $0.74 | $6.12 +142.7% | $2.83 +12.4% | 30.0% | +84.8% | $2.52 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Liquidation 8.0% $2.49 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.17 Cat Fight 8.0% $0.96 Continuum 8.0% $0.93 Angel Eyes 8.0% $0.84 | $5.85 +118.3% | $2.89 +7.9% | 30.0% | +72.1% | $2.68 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.43 Liquidation 6.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 6.0% $1.13 Continuum 6.0% $1.09 Angel Eyes 6.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +131.9% | $6.34 +20.0% | 35.0% | +82.1% | $5.28 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.63 Liquidation 4.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 4.0% $1.13 Continuum 4.0% $1.09 Angel Eyes 4.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +106.1% | $7.08 +19.3% | 40.0% | +70.9% | $5.94 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.63 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Continuum 10.0% $1.09 Ocular 10.0% $1.04 | $12.25 +184.1% | $5.05 +17.2% | 50.0% | +97.9% | $4.31 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.43 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Continuum 12.0% $1.09 Angel Eyes 12.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +221.4% | $4.33 +13.8% | 52.0% | +106.0% | $3.81 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Liquidation 14.0% $7.67 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.43 Cat Fight 14.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 14.0% $2.14 Ocular 14.0% $2.05 | $12.25 +181.5% | $4.76 +9.5% | 44.0% | +81.1% | $4.35 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.63 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 16.0% $2.14 Ocular 16.0% $2.05 | $12.25 +190.9% | $4.27 +1.5% | 36.0% | +76.4% | $4.21 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  40.0% $27.17 Ice Coaled  20.0% $11.85 Smoking Kills  20.0% $10.31 Mirror Mosaic  20.0% $9.64 | $27.17 +94.5% | $17.23 +23.3% | 40.0% | +58.3% | $13.97 | — |