The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Red Wing
3x $0.65
Broken Record
1x $1.35
Grip Tape
1x $0.87
Creep
3x $0.93
Aeolian Light
2x $0.94
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
30.0% $14.73
Liquidation
8.0% $7.67
Cat Fight
8.0% $2.29
Angel Eyes
8.0% $2.14
Ocular
8.0% $2.05
Max Win
$26.93 (+120.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$13.79 (+13.1%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+81.5%
Cost
$12.19
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $12.19
Ask Price EV $13.79 (+13.1%)
Bid Price EV $13.12 (+7.6%)
Ask Profit $1.60 (+13.1%)
Bid Profit $0.93 (+7.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.67 (+5.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.60
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.93
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+120.9%)
Worst Case $2.00 (-83.6%)
Volatility +81.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$8.64
Avg Loss -$8.96
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.00 (-83.6%)
Std Dev $9.93
Avg Norm Float 0.0933
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 143h 56m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Minimal Wear
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Minimal Wear
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Factory New
$1.35 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$1.45 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$0.93 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 22S //TOTAL COST $12.19 //ASK PRICE EV $13.79 //BID PRICE EV $13.12 //ASK PROFIT $1.60 (+13.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.93 (+7.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +81.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$26.93
+$14.74
+120.9%
$26.63
+$14.44
+118.5%
$0.30
1.1%
—
WIN
30.0%
$14.73
+$2.54
+20.9%
$13.15
+$0.96
+7.9%
$1.58
10.7%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$7.67
-$4.52
-37.1%
$6.71
-$5.48
-45.0%
$0.96
12.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.29
-$9.90
-81.2%
$2.04
-$10.15
-83.3%
$0.25
11.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.14
-$10.05
-82.4%
$2.03
-$10.16
-83.3%
$0.11
5.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.05
-$10.14
-83.2%
$2.03
-$10.16
-83.3%
$0.02
1.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.00
-$10.19
-83.6%
$1.99
-$10.20
-83.7%
$0.01
0.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.065324,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 14.7335,
"optimistic_value": 14.66,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:24.219267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09332,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 2.14,
"optimistic_value": 2.14,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 2.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:16:16.128659Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09332,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 7.667,
"optimistic_value": 7.66,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 6.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.771865Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09332,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 2.2944999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:16:03.376000Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09332,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 2.0505,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 2.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:57:54.887920Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09332,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 2,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:55:23.906474Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0eb190d98ba576bba2371f22",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "514116636505205970",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:59:54.572228Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "519745391330807492",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:59:54.572228Z"
},
{
"price": 1.35,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "490472790736724379",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:12.883372Z"
},
{
"price": 1.45,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "498354089953558939",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:16.002064Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "506235337025136948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:16:17.311700Z"
},
{
"price": 0.93,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "525375688037345119",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:37.051667Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620288313427412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:21.438604Z"
},
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "507361289453312365",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:37.051667Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "524248990833803271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:37.051667Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "520872088106386248",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:25.395526Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.43 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.13 Continuum 8.0% $1.09 Angel Eyes 8.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +156.2% | $5.67 +18.6% | 30.0% | +90.4% | $4.78 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 30.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.17 Liquidation 8.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 8.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 8.0% $0.74 Ocular 8.0% $0.74 | $6.12 +142.7% | $2.83 +12.4% | 30.0% | +84.8% | $2.52 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Liquidation 8.0% $2.49 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.17 Cat Fight 8.0% $0.96 Continuum 8.0% $0.93 Angel Eyes 8.0% $0.84 | $5.85 +118.3% | $2.89 +7.9% | 30.0% | +72.1% | $2.68 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.43 Liquidation 6.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 6.0% $1.13 Continuum 6.0% $1.09 Angel Eyes 6.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +131.9% | $6.34 +20.0% | 35.0% | +82.1% | $5.28 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.63 Liquidation 4.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 4.0% $1.13 Continuum 4.0% $1.09 Angel Eyes 4.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +106.1% | $7.08 +19.3% | 40.0% | +70.9% | $5.94 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.63 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Continuum 10.0% $1.09 Ocular 10.0% $1.04 | $12.25 +184.1% | $5.05 +17.2% | 50.0% | +97.9% | $4.31 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.43 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Continuum 12.0% $1.09 Angel Eyes 12.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +221.4% | $4.33 +13.8% | 52.0% | +106.0% | $3.81 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Liquidation 14.0% $7.67 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.43 Cat Fight 14.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 14.0% $2.14 Ocular 14.0% $2.05 | $12.25 +181.5% | $4.76 +9.5% | 44.0% | +81.1% | $4.35 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.63 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 16.0% $2.14 Ocular 16.0% $2.05 | $12.25 +190.9% | $4.27 +1.5% | 36.0% | +76.4% | $4.21 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  40.0% $27.17 Ice Coaled  20.0% $11.85 Smoking Kills  20.0% $10.31 Mirror Mosaic  20.0% $9.64 | $27.17 +94.5% | $17.23 +23.3% | 40.0% | +58.3% | $13.97 | — |