The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Caged
1x $0.20
Bullfrog
1x $0.26
MAGnitude
1x $0.36
Broken Record
1x $0.39
Grip Tape
3x $0.34
The Daily Deagle
2x $0.43
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $12.25
Trace Lock
30.0% $4.43
Liquidation
8.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
8.0% $1.13
Continuum
8.0% $1.09
Angel Eyes
8.0% $1.05
Max Win
$12.25 (+156.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.67 (+18.6%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+94.5%
Cost
$4.78
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.78
Ask Price EV $5.67 (+18.6%)
Bid Price EV $5.25 (+9.8%)
Ask Profit $0.89 (+18.6%)
Bid Profit $0.47 (+9.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.42 (+8.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.89
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.47
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $12.25 (+156.2%)
Worst Case $1.04 (-78.2%)
Volatility +94.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 32.0%
Avg Win +$7.47
Avg Loss -$1.93
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.04 (-78.2%)
Std Dev $4.52
Avg Norm Float 0.1993
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 144h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | MAGnitude
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.74 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 22S //TOTAL COST $4.78 //ASK PRICE EV $5.67 //BID PRICE EV $5.25 //ASK PROFIT $0.89 (+18.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.47 (+9.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $12.25 //VOLATILITY +94.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$12.25
+$7.47
+156.2%
$11.36
+$6.58
+137.7%
$0.89
7.2%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$4.43
-$0.35
-7.3%
$4.10
-$0.68
-14.2%
$0.33
7.5%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$4.01
-$0.77
-16.0%
$3.61
-$1.17
-24.5%
$0.40
10.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.13
-$3.65
-76.3%
$1.04
-$3.74
-78.2%
$0.09
8.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.09
-$3.69
-77.3%
$0.96
-$3.82
-79.9%
$0.13
11.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.05
-$3.73
-78.1%
$1.00
-$3.78
-79.1%
$0.05
4.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.04
-$3.74
-78.2%
$1.01
-$3.77
-78.9%
$0.03
3.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.149445,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.14,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.139482,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.431,
"optimistic_value": 4.34,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:04.381304Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19926,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 1.0485,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:01.039484Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19926,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 4.0145,
"optimistic_value": 3.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:12.174520Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19926,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 1.1305,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T20:16:13.485553Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19926,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 1.044,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:47.457806Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19926,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 1.087,
"optimistic_value": 1.08,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:16.440233Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0eb190d98ba576bba2371f22",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "518620235869812748",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:16:05.925745Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "505108692500795132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:35.410472Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-e8947585ba24",
"listing_id": "506235389469351588",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8947585ba24.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:17.438127Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "641341944860654767",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:15.580465Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "491598690699908402",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:58.437797Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "490472625090080439",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:10.279595Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "491598690699020822",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:10.279595Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "523123888072460710",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:16:17.311700Z"
},
{
"price": 0.74,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620288313743780",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:21.438604Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "506235337025136948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:16:17.311700Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 30.0% $14.73 Liquidation 8.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 8.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 8.0% $2.14 Ocular 8.0% $2.05 | $26.93 +120.9% | $13.79 +13.1% | 60.0% | +76.7% | $12.19 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 30.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.17 Liquidation 8.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 8.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 8.0% $0.74 Ocular 8.0% $0.74 | $6.12 +142.7% | $2.83 +12.4% | 30.0% | +84.8% | $2.52 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Liquidation 8.0% $2.49 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.17 Cat Fight 8.0% $0.96 Continuum 8.0% $0.93 Angel Eyes 8.0% $0.84 | $5.85 +118.3% | $2.89 +7.9% | 30.0% | +72.1% | $2.68 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.43 Liquidation 6.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 6.0% $1.13 Continuum 6.0% $1.09 Angel Eyes 6.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +131.9% | $6.34 +20.0% | 35.0% | +82.1% | $5.28 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.63 Liquidation 4.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 4.0% $1.13 Continuum 4.0% $1.09 Angel Eyes 4.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +106.1% | $7.08 +19.3% | 40.0% | +70.9% | $5.94 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.63 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Continuum 10.0% $1.09 Ocular 10.0% $1.04 | $12.25 +184.1% | $5.05 +17.2% | 50.0% | +97.9% | $4.31 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.43 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Continuum 12.0% $1.09 Angel Eyes 12.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +221.4% | $4.33 +13.8% | 52.0% | +106.0% | $3.81 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Liquidation 14.0% $7.67 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.43 Cat Fight 14.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 14.0% $2.14 Ocular 14.0% $2.05 | $12.25 +181.5% | $4.76 +9.5% | 44.0% | +81.1% | $4.35 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.63 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 16.0% $2.14 Ocular 16.0% $2.05 | $12.25 +190.9% | $4.27 +1.5% | 36.0% | +76.4% | $4.21 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  40.0% $27.17 Ice Coaled  20.0% $11.85 Smoking Kills  20.0% $10.31 Mirror Mosaic  20.0% $9.64 | $27.17 +94.5% | $17.23 +23.3% | 40.0% | +58.3% | $13.97 | — |