The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Red Wing
1x $0.13
Caged
2x $0.14
Bullfrog
1x $0.19
Aeolian Light
4x $0.25
The Daily Deagle
1x $0.34
Grip Tape
1x $0.40
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $6.12
Trace Lock
30.0% $3.20
Liquidation
8.0% $1.36
Cat Fight
8.0% $0.80
Angel Eyes
8.0% $0.74
Ocular
8.0% $0.73
Max Win
$6.12 (+142.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.14 (+24.5%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+86.6%
Cost
$2.52
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.52
Ask Price EV $3.14 (+24.5%)
Bid Price EV $2.60 (+3.2%)
Ask Profit $0.62 (+24.5%)
Bid Profit $0.08 (+3.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.54 (+21.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.62
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.08
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $6.12 (+142.7%)
Worst Case $0.66 (-73.7%)
Volatility +86.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$2.14
Avg Loss -$1.66
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.66 (-73.7%)
Std Dev $2.18
Avg Norm Float 0.5442
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 143h 34m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 24M 50S //TOTAL COST $2.52 //ASK PRICE EV $3.14 //BID PRICE EV $2.60 //ASK PROFIT $0.62 (+24.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.08 (+3.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $6.12 //VOLATILITY +86.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$6.12
+$3.60
+142.7%
$5.33
+$2.81
+111.5%
$0.79
12.9%
—
PAPER WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$3.20
+$0.68
+26.8%
$2.35
-$0.17
-6.7%
$0.85
26.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.36
-$1.16
-46.0%
$1.17
-$1.35
-53.6%
$0.19
14.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.80
-$1.72
-68.1%
$0.66
-$1.86
-73.8%
$0.14
17.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.74
-$1.78
-70.6%
$0.63
-$1.89
-75.0%
$0.11
14.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.73
-$1.79
-70.9%
$0.62
-$1.90
-75.4%
$0.11
15.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.66
-$1.86
-73.7%
$0.64
-$1.88
-74.6%
$0.02
3.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.40812750000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 6.1165,
"optimistic_value": 5.91,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 5.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:45:27.628648Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.380919,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 3.1965,
"optimistic_value": 3.06,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:50:58.816197Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.54417,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 0.74,
"optimistic_value": 0.74,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 0.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T20:59:55.865803Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.54417,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 1.3605,
"optimistic_value": 1.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 1.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:14.514541Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.54417,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 0.8035,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T16:04:54.060260Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.54417,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 0.7334999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:47.025431Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.54417,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 0.664,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:06.297362Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0eb190d98ba576bba2371f22",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "499479989896194637",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:52.905599Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "519746188258875536",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:40.253371Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "494976390476880294",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:03:37.349803Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "510738989040754918",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:30.385069Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "526501587737062601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:48.662374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368488724825018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:48.662374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "508487136897723158",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:48.662374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "493850490550151956",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:48.662374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "520872088106937408",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:54.250205Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "511864888984776573",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:23.546908Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.28 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.13 Angel Eyes 8.0% $1.07 Continuum 8.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +155.6% | $5.62 +17.4% | 30.0% | +90.6% | $4.79 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 30.0% $14.71 Liquidation 8.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 8.0% $2.29 Angel Eyes 8.0% $2.14 Ocular 8.0% $2.05 | $26.93 +120.7% | $13.78 +13.0% | 60.0% | +76.7% | $12.20 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Liquidation 8.0% $2.49 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.19 Cat Fight 8.0% $0.96 Continuum 8.0% $0.93 Angel Eyes 8.0% $0.85 | $5.85 +118.3% | $2.90 +8.1% | 30.0% | +72.0% | $2.68 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 35.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 35.0% $3.20 Liquidation 6.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 6.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 6.0% $0.74 Ocular 6.0% $0.73 | $6.12 +123.2% | $3.52 +28.4% | 70.0% | +73.4% | $2.74 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.52 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Angel Eyes 10.0% $1.07 Ocular 10.0% $1.06 | $12.25 +197.9% | $5.02 +22.3% | 50.0% | +102.8% | $4.11 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.28 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Angel Eyes 12.0% $1.07 Continuum 12.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +224.8% | $4.30 +14.2% | 52.0% | +107.3% | $3.77 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.28 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Angel Eyes 14.0% $1.07 Continuum 14.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +260.1% | $3.64 +7.2% | 44.0% | +109.8% | $3.40 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.28 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 16.0% $2.14 Ocular 16.0% $2.05 | $12.25 +203.8% | $4.23 +5.1% | 36.0% | +79.9% | $4.03 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  30.0% $27.17 Ice Coaled  23.3% $11.85 Smoking Kills  23.3% $10.43 Mirror Mosaic  23.3% $9.64 | $27.17 +117.0% | $15.60 +24.6% | 30.0% | +60.8% | $12.52 | — |