The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Zubastick
1x $0.15
Fragment
2x $0.19
Bock Blocks
2x $0.24
Fraise Crane
2x $0.39
Earth Mandala
1x $0.42
Sky Mandala
1x $0.42
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
25.0% $6.85
Electrum
10.0% $3.09
Sleeping Potion
25.0% $2.32
Firebreathing
10.0% $2.02
Galigator
10.0% $1.98
Urban Sovereign
10.0% $1.34
Max Win
$6.85 (+97.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.27 (-5.6%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+61.3%
Cost
$3.46
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.46
Ask Price EV $3.27 (-5.6%)
Bid Price EV $3.03 (-12.3%)
Ask Profit $-0.19 (-5.6%)
Bid Profit $-0.43 (-12.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.23 (+6.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.19
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.43
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $6.85 (+97.8%)
Worst Case $1.33 (-61.6%)
Volatility +61.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 65.0%
Avg Win +$3.39
Avg Loss -$1.38
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.33 (-61.6%)
Std Dev $2.12
Avg Norm Float 0.4498
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 14m
Oldest Output Price 150h 6m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 20M 03S //TOTAL COST $3.46 //ASK PRICE EV $3.27 //BID PRICE EV $3.03 //ASK PROFIT $-0.19 (-5.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.43 (-12.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $6.85 //VOLATILITY +61.3% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$6.85
+$3.39
+97.8%
$6.58
+$3.12
+90.2%
$0.27
3.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$3.09
-$0.37
-10.7%
$2.55
-$0.91
-26.3%
$0.54
17.5%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$2.32
-$1.14
-32.9%
$2.25
-$1.21
-35.0%
$0.07
3.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$2.02
-$1.44
-41.5%
$1.87
-$1.59
-46.0%
$0.15
7.6%
—
NUKE THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$1.98
-$1.48
-42.7%
$1.30
-$2.16
-62.4%
$0.68
34.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$1.34
-$2.12
-61.4%
$1.28
-$2.18
-63.0%
$0.05
4.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$1.33
-$2.13
-61.6%
$1.26
-$2.20
-63.6%
$0.07
5.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.314839,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 6.8455,
"optimistic_value": 6.59,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:49:40.765337Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.314839,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.3209999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 2.3,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:15.097240Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.44977,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.0235,
"optimistic_value": 2.02,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 1.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:09:27.454296Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.44977,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 1.9809999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.89,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T04:16:23.451221Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.44977,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 3.0915,
"optimistic_value": 3.06,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 2.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:14:00.395844Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.44977,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.33,
"optimistic_value": 1.33,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:33.340252Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.44977,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.335,
"optimistic_value": 1.3,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:50.169014Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0ca11ea5f14c80d3c984a4ac",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "497228243055051209",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:00:43.803232Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "527627540537821244",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:39.602421Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375740885165047",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:37.770744Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "516368436281402378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:39.602421Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375740885526919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:40.824174Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "503983642532810431",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:59.308831Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "496102237884557447",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:59.308831Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "529879235106122832",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:09:58.354856Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "519746188258250360",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:50.402243Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "512990841907814435",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:04:28.797795Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:5+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.87 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $10.31 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Amberline 10.0% $1.76 | $13.87 +141.2% | $7.30 +26.9% | 50.0% | +81.2% | $5.75 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 25.0% $26.72 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $22.69 Electrum 10.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 10.0% $5.02 Galigator 10.0% $3.29 Amberline 10.0% $3.16 | $26.72 +101.4% | $14.51 +9.3% | 50.0% | +73.1% | $13.27 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $10.38 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Amberline 12.0% $1.76 | $13.37 +166.9% | $6.25 +24.8% | 40.0% | +89.1% | $5.01 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $10.38 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Amberline 14.0% $1.76 | $13.37 +212.4% | $5.32 +24.2% | 30.0% | +98.6% | $4.28 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.51 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $10.31 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Amberline 8.0% $1.76 | $13.51 +97.0% | $8.15 +18.9% | 60.0% | +64.8% | $6.86 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.87 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $10.31 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Amberline 6.0% $1.76 | $13.87 +71.4% | $9.22 +13.9% | 70.0% | +52.9% | $8.09 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $10.38 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Amberline 16.0% $1.76 | $13.37 +247.3% | $4.38 +13.7% | 36.0% | +97.1% | $3.85 | — |