The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Zubastick
1x $0.55
Fragment
1x $0.66
Bock Blocks
2x $1.64
Dark Polymer
1x $2.12
Warm Blooded
5x $2.26
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
25.0% $26.72
Sleeping Potion
25.0% $22.69
Electrum
10.0% $19.50
Firebreathing
10.0% $12.97
Galigator
10.0% $11.08
Amberline
10.0% $10.24
Max Win
$26.72 (+38.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$18.73 (-3.0%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+34.3%
Cost
$19.31
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.31
Ask Price EV $18.73 (-3.0%)
Bid Price EV $17.49 (-9.4%)
Ask Profit $-0.58 (-3.0%)
Bid Profit $-1.82 (-9.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.24 (+6.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.58
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.82
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $26.72 (+38.4%)
Worst Case $10.00 (-48.2%)
Volatility +34.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$4.53
Avg Loss -$8.24
Bottom 5% Outcome $10.00 (-48.2%)
Std Dev $6.63
Avg Norm Float 0.0689
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 150h 12m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.55 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.64 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Factory New
$2.12 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.26 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.59 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 19M 24S //TOTAL COST $19.31 //ASK PRICE EV $18.73 //BID PRICE EV $17.49 //ASK PROFIT $-0.58 (-3.0%) //BID PROFIT $-1.82 (-9.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $26.72 //VOLATILITY +34.3% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
25.0%
$26.72
+$7.41
+38.4%
$26.22
+$6.91
+35.8%
$0.50
1.9%
—
WIN
25.0%
$22.69
+$3.38
+17.5%
$19.86
+$0.55
+2.8%
$2.83
12.5%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$19.50
+$0.19
+1.0%
$17.32
-$1.99
-10.3%
$2.18
11.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$12.97
-$6.34
-32.8%
$11.57
-$7.74
-40.1%
$1.40
10.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$11.08
-$8.23
-42.6%
$10.78
-$8.53
-44.2%
$0.30
2.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$10.24
-$9.07
-47.0%
$10.09
-$9.22
-47.7%
$0.15
1.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$10.00
-$9.31
-48.2%
$9.98
-$9.33
-48.3%
$0.02
0.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.048215999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.724,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:46.683954Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.048215999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 22.685000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 22.37,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 19.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:45.820467Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06888,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 12.967,
"optimistic_value": 12.89,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 11.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:51.443586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06888,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 11.0835,
"optimistic_value": 11.08,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 10.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:06.445485Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06888,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 19.4975,
"optimistic_value": 19.34,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 17.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:57.497142Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06888,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 10.237,
"optimistic_value": 10.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 10.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:06.075952Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06888,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 10,
"optimistic_value": 10,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 9.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:30.147222Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0ca11ea5f14c80d3c984a4ac",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.55,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "529879287552057552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:52:04.576366Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "491598743580519002",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:16.088265Z"
},
{
"price": 1.64,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "509613142167961707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:49:24.514821Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375688036694203",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:49:24.514821Z"
},
{
"price": 2.12,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "519746241188345048",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:18.377877Z"
},
{
"price": 2.26,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "526501640650543289",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:38.573900Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "503983589620254115",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:38.573900Z"
},
{
"price": 2.48,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "500605724248646447",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:38.573900Z"
},
{
"price": 2.59,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "518620235868493708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:38.573900Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:38.573900Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:5+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.87 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $10.31 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Amberline 10.0% $1.76 | $13.87 +141.2% | $7.30 +26.9% | 50.0% | +81.2% | $5.75 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 25.0% $26.72 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $22.69 Electrum 10.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 10.0% $5.02 Galigator 10.0% $3.29 Amberline 10.0% $3.16 | $26.72 +101.4% | $14.51 +9.3% | 50.0% | +73.1% | $13.27 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $10.38 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Amberline 12.0% $1.76 | $13.37 +166.9% | $6.25 +24.8% | 40.0% | +89.1% | $5.01 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $10.38 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Amberline 14.0% $1.76 | $13.37 +212.4% | $5.32 +24.2% | 30.0% | +98.6% | $4.28 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.51 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $10.31 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Amberline 8.0% $1.76 | $13.51 +97.0% | $8.15 +18.9% | 60.0% | +64.8% | $6.86 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.87 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $10.31 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Amberline 6.0% $1.76 | $13.87 +71.4% | $9.22 +13.9% | 70.0% | +52.9% | $8.09 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $10.38 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Amberline 16.0% $1.76 | $13.37 +247.3% | $4.38 +13.7% | 36.0% | +97.1% | $3.85 | — |