The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Zubastick
1x $0.15
Fragment
2x $0.19
Bock Blocks
2x $0.24
Fraise Crane
2x $0.39
Earth Mandala
2x $0.42
Sky Mandala
1x $0.42
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
25.0% $6.85
Electrum
10.0% $2.61
Sleeping Potion
25.0% $2.32
Firebreathing
10.0% $1.83
Galigator
10.0% $1.63
Urban Sovereign
10.0% $1.39
Max Win
$6.85 (+99.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.15 (-8.2%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+63.5%
Cost
$3.43
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.43
Ask Price EV $3.15 (-8.2%)
Bid Price EV $2.90 (-15.4%)
Ask Profit $-0.28 (-8.2%)
Bid Profit $-0.53 (-15.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.25 (+7.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.28
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.53
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $6.85 (+99.6%)
Worst Case $1.10 (-67.9%)
Volatility +63.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 65.0%
Avg Win +$3.42
Avg Loss -$1.51
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.10 (-67.9%)
Std Dev $2.18
Avg Norm Float 0.4579
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 150h 10m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 20M 19S //TOTAL COST $3.43 //ASK PRICE EV $3.15 //BID PRICE EV $2.90 //ASK PROFIT $-0.28 (-8.2%) //BID PROFIT $-0.53 (-15.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $6.85 //VOLATILITY +63.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$6.85
+$3.42
+99.6%
$6.58
+$3.15
+91.8%
$0.27
3.9%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$2.61
-$0.82
-23.8%
$2.03
-$1.40
-40.8%
$0.58
22.3%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$2.32
-$1.11
-32.3%
$2.25
-$1.18
-34.4%
$0.07
3.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.83
-$1.60
-46.7%
$1.77
-$1.66
-48.4%
$0.06
3.1%
—
NUKE THIN BID
10.0%
$1.63
-$1.80
-52.3%
$1.10
-$2.33
-67.9%
$0.53
32.7%
—
NUKE THIN BID
10.0%
$1.39
-$2.05
-59.6%
$1.03
-$2.40
-70.0%
$0.36
25.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.10
-$2.33
-67.9%
$1.01
-$2.42
-70.6%
$0.09
8.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.320551,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 6.8455,
"optimistic_value": 6.59,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:49:40.765337Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.320551,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.3209999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 2.3,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:15.097240Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.45793,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 1.8275000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.81,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:05:44.702216Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.45793,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 1.6345,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T01:11:40.185893Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.45793,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 2.614,
"optimistic_value": 2.6,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 2.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:26.454846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.45793,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.1015,
"optimistic_value": 1.07,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:36.744419Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.45793,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.385,
"optimistic_value": 1.35,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T23:48:41.454498Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0ca11ea5f14c80d3c984a4ac",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "497228243055051209",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:00:43.803232Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "527627540537821244",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:39.602421Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375740885165047",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:37.770744Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "516368436281402378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:39.602421Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "515242588554681613",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:37.770744Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "503983642532810431",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:59.308831Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "496102237884557447",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:59.308831Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "529879235106122832",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:09:58.354856Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "519746188258250360",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:50.402243Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "517494441498019138",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:53.128696Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:5+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.87 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $10.31 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Amberline 10.0% $1.76 | $13.87 +141.2% | $7.30 +26.9% | 50.0% | +81.2% | $5.75 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 25.0% $26.72 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $22.69 Electrum 10.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 10.0% $5.02 Galigator 10.0% $3.29 Amberline 10.0% $3.16 | $26.72 +101.4% | $14.51 +9.3% | 50.0% | +73.1% | $13.27 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $10.38 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Amberline 12.0% $1.76 | $13.37 +166.9% | $6.25 +24.8% | 40.0% | +89.1% | $5.01 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $10.38 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Amberline 14.0% $1.76 | $13.37 +212.4% | $5.32 +24.2% | 30.0% | +98.6% | $4.28 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.51 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $10.31 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Amberline 8.0% $1.76 | $13.51 +97.0% | $8.15 +18.9% | 60.0% | +64.8% | $6.86 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.87 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $10.31 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Amberline 6.0% $1.76 | $13.87 +71.4% | $9.22 +13.9% | 70.0% | +52.9% | $8.09 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $10.38 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Amberline 16.0% $1.76 | $13.37 +247.3% | $4.38 +13.7% | 36.0% | +97.1% | $3.85 | — |