The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Bock Blocks
2x $0.40
Fragment
2x $0.49
Zubastick
1x $0.55
Warm Blooded
5x $1.05
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
25.0% $26.72
Sleeping Potion
25.0% $22.69
Electrum
10.0% $7.00
Firebreathing
10.0% $5.02
Galigator
10.0% $3.29
Amberline
10.0% $3.16
Max Win
$26.72 (+101.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$14.51 (+9.3%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+78.0%
Cost
$13.27
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $13.27
Ask Price EV $14.51 (+9.3%)
Bid Price EV $13.45 (+1.3%)
Ask Profit $1.24 (+9.3%)
Bid Profit $0.18 (+1.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.06 (+8.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.24
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.18
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $26.72 (+101.4%)
Worst Case $3.10 (-76.6%)
Volatility +78.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$11.43
Avg Loss -$8.96
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.10 (-76.6%)
Std Dev $10.35
Avg Norm Float 0.0998
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 150h 3m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.55 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.26 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 20M 21S //TOTAL COST $13.27 //ASK PRICE EV $14.51 //BID PRICE EV $13.45 //ASK PROFIT $1.24 (+9.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.18 (+1.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $26.72 //VOLATILITY +78.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$26.72
+$13.45
+101.4%
$26.22
+$12.95
+97.6%
$0.50
1.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$22.69
+$9.42
+70.9%
$19.86
+$6.59
+49.7%
$2.83
12.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$7.00
-$6.27
-47.3%
$5.93
-$7.34
-55.3%
$1.07
15.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$5.02
-$8.25
-62.2%
$3.97
-$9.30
-70.1%
$1.05
20.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.29
-$9.98
-75.2%
$3.18
-$10.09
-76.0%
$0.11
3.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.16
-$10.11
-76.2%
$3.13
-$10.14
-76.4%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.10
-$10.17
-76.6%
$3.08
-$10.19
-76.8%
$0.02
0.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.06985999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.724,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:46.683954Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.06985999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 22.685000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 22.37,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 19.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:45.820467Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 4.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.2855000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 3.24,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 3.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:54.667881Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 6.997,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 3.1605,
"optimistic_value": 3.15,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 3.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:55.195740Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.1035,
"optimistic_value": 3.1,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:42.928188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0ca11ea5f14c80d3c984a4ac",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375740885526919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:40.824174Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "492724643507472789",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:40.824174Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "493850490551072548",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:16.088265Z"
},
{
"price": 0.55,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "529879287552057552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:52:04.576366Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "491598743580519002",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:16.088265Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "526501640650831289",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:27.297782Z"
},
{
"price": 2.26,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "526501640650543289",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:38.573900Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "503983589620254115",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:38.573900Z"
},
{
"price": 2.48,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "500605724248646447",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:38.573900Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:38.573900Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:5+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.87 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $10.31 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Amberline 10.0% $1.76 | $13.87 +141.2% | $7.30 +26.9% | 50.0% | +81.2% | $5.75 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $10.38 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Amberline 12.0% $1.76 | $13.37 +166.9% | $6.25 +24.8% | 40.0% | +89.1% | $5.01 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $10.38 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Amberline 14.0% $1.76 | $13.37 +212.4% | $5.32 +24.2% | 30.0% | +98.6% | $4.28 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.51 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $10.31 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Amberline 8.0% $1.76 | $13.51 +97.0% | $8.15 +18.9% | 60.0% | +64.8% | $6.86 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.87 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $10.31 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Amberline 6.0% $1.76 | $13.87 +71.4% | $9.22 +13.9% | 70.0% | +52.9% | $8.09 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $10.38 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Amberline 16.0% $1.76 | $13.37 +247.3% | $4.38 +13.7% | 36.0% | +97.1% | $3.85 | — |