The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Bock Blocks
2x $0.24
Dark Polymer
1x $0.31
Zubastick
2x $0.41
Fraise Crane
2x $0.48
Earth Mandala
2x $0.57
Warm Blooded
1x $1.11
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
25.0% $13.37
Sleeping Potion
25.0% $10.07
Electrum
10.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
10.0% $2.79
Galigator
10.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
10.0% $1.73
Max Win
$13.37 (+141.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$7.11 (+28.5%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+86.8%
Cost
$5.53
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.53
Ask Price EV $7.11 (+28.5%)
Bid Price EV $6.43 (+16.2%)
Ask Profit $1.58 (+28.5%)
Bid Profit $0.90 (+16.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.68 (+12.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.58
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.90
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $13.37 (+141.7%)
Worst Case $1.67 (-69.7%)
Volatility +86.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$6.19
Avg Loss -$3.03
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.67 (-69.7%)
Std Dev $4.80
Avg Norm Float 0.2135
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 149h 7m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Field-Tested
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.57 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.11 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 18M 45S //TOTAL COST $5.53 //ASK PRICE EV $7.11 //BID PRICE EV $6.43 //ASK PROFIT $1.58 (+28.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.90 (+16.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $13.37 //VOLATILITY +86.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$13.37
+$7.84
+141.7%
$12.05
+$6.52
+117.9%
$1.32
9.8%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$10.07
+$4.54
+82.1%
$9.29
+$3.76
+68.0%
$0.78
7.8%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$4.11
-$1.42
-25.7%
$3.61
-$1.92
-34.7%
$0.50
12.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.79
-$2.74
-49.6%
$2.32
-$3.21
-58.0%
$0.47
16.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.19
-$3.34
-60.5%
$1.74
-$3.79
-68.5%
$0.45
20.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.73
-$3.80
-68.8%
$1.63
-$3.90
-70.5%
$0.10
5.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.67
-$3.86
-69.7%
$1.63
-$3.90
-70.5%
$0.04
2.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.14948499999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.366,
"optimistic_value": 13.24,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:55.206363Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.14948499999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 10.071,
"optimistic_value": 9.84,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:11.711026Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.21355,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.21355,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.21355,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.21355,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.6744999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:38.285256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.21355,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.7269999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:25.623704Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0ca11ea5f14c80d3c984a4ac",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375740885165047",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:58:20.088692Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "518620341242870212",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:39.267745Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375740885526919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:16:59.606135Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "500605942755482003",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:41.244740Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "491598743580366974",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:41.244740Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "494976443341966002",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:13.646471Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "491598743580280754",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:13.646471Z"
},
{
"price": 0.57,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864723318275141",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:08.770568Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "528753440604836613",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:03.461147Z"
},
{
"price": 1.11,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "507361342333714381",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:56:16.100393Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:5+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 25.0% $7.16 Electrum 10.0% $3.09 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.34 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.02 Galigator 10.0% $1.98 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.34 | $7.16 +135.5% | $3.35 +10.2% | 35.0% | +71.0% | $3.04 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 25.0% $7.16 Electrum 10.0% $2.61 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.34 Firebreathing 10.0% $1.83 Galigator 10.0% $1.63 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.39 | $7.16 +140.3% | $3.24 +8.7% | 25.0% | +74.1% | $2.98 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 25.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $22.71 Electrum 10.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 10.0% $5.02 Galigator 10.0% $3.29 Amberline 10.0% $3.15 | $26.79 +100.4% | $14.53 +8.7% | 50.0% | +72.7% | $13.37 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $10.07 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.73 | $13.37 +175.0% | $6.18 +27.2% | 40.0% | +90.9% | $4.86 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $10.07 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $1.73 | $13.37 +219.0% | $5.26 +25.6% | 30.0% | +99.6% | $4.19 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $10.07 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.73 | $13.37 +107.9% | $8.03 +24.9% | 60.0% | +68.0% | $6.43 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $10.07 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.73 | $13.37 +79.9% | $8.95 +20.5% | 70.0% | +55.2% | $7.43 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $7.15 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $2.38 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $1.73 | $7.15 +190.5% | $2.95 +19.8% | 42.0% | +62.2% | $2.46 | — |