The Fracture Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Runic
2x $0.15
Ol' Rusty
1x $0.28
Ultralight
1x $0.29
Rose Hex
4x $0.34
Shredded
1x $0.47
Blush Pour
1x $0.65
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
20.0% $15.94
Glitched Paint
20.0% $7.11
Bleeding Edge
20.0% $5.58
Monster Call
8.0% $0.74
Allure
8.0% $0.74
Brother
8.0% $0.70
Max Win
$15.94 (+255.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.01 (+33.8%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+124.6%
Cost
$4.49
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.49
Ask Price EV $6.01 (+33.8%)
Bid Price EV $5.44 (+21.2%)
Ask Profit $1.52 (+33.8%)
Bid Profit $0.95 (+21.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.57 (+12.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.52
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.95
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $15.94 (+255.0%)
Worst Case $0.65 (-85.4%)
Volatility +124.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$5.06
Avg Loss -$3.79
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.65 (-85.4%)
Std Dev $5.59
Avg Norm Float 0.1997
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 140h 40m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 16M 06S //TOTAL COST $4.49 //ASK PRICE EV $6.01 //BID PRICE EV $5.44 //ASK PROFIT $1.52 (+33.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.95 (+21.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $15.94 //VOLATILITY +124.6% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$15.94
+$11.45
+255.0%
$14.54
+$10.05
+223.8%
$1.40
8.8%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$7.11
+$2.62
+58.4%
$6.21
+$1.72
+38.3%
$0.90
12.7%
—
WIN
20.0%
$5.58
+$1.09
+24.3%
$5.14
+$0.65
+14.5%
$0.44
7.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.74
-$3.75
-83.4%
$0.69
-$3.80
-84.6%
$0.05
7.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.74
-$3.75
-83.6%
$0.69
-$3.80
-84.6%
$0.05
6.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.70
-$3.79
-84.4%
$0.66
-$3.83
-85.3%
$0.04
5.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.68
-$3.81
-84.9%
$0.62
-$3.87
-86.2%
$0.06
8.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.65
-$3.84
-85.4%
$0.63
-$3.86
-86.0%
$0.02
3.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.14974500000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.9415,
"optimistic_value": 15.91,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:07.329445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.1337722,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 7.1125,
"optimistic_value": 7.06,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:32.000337Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.119796,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.581,
"optimistic_value": 5.49,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:45.829558Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.159728,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 0.678,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:21:24.721781Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19966,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 0.737,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T15:35:31.747771Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19966,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 0.744,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T10:06:18.050993Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.159728,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 0.6535,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 0.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:57:32.857848Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19966,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 0.7004999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:23:53.086862Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_fb9d1245df590fcad690040c",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "503983537176426151",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:24.474087Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "503983589619445987",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:47.349225Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "524249735516767095",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:57:18.582179Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "514116688948786470",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:41:04.666285Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:00.384170Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:00.384170Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "520872088105717584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:31.514694Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "526501535293744649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:23.438894Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "519746188258477016",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:29.591932Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "521997935570553426",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:29.591932Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 20.0% $33.42 Glitched Paint 20.0% $17.42 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $16.98 Allure 8.0% $1.71 Monster Call 8.0% $1.58 Brother 8.0% $1.54 | $33.42 +160.5% | $14.15 +10.3% | 60.0% | +83.8% | $12.83 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.11 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.58 Monster Call 6.0% $0.74 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Brother 6.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +204.8% | $6.89 +31.8% | 70.0% | +98.2% | $5.23 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.11 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.58 Monster Call 14.0% $0.74 Allure 14.0% $0.74 Brother 14.0% $0.71 | $15.94 +520.3% | $3.36 +30.6% | 30.0% | +176.8% | $2.57 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.11 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.58 Monster Call 4.0% $0.74 Allure 4.0% $0.74 Brother 4.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +162.6% | $7.78 +28.1% | 53.3% | +82.6% | $6.07 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.11 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.58 Monster Call 2.0% $0.74 Allure 2.0% $0.74 Brother 2.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +131.0% | $8.66 +25.5% | 60.0% | +69.9% | $6.90 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $7.11 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.58 Connexion 16.0% $1.33 Kitbash 16.0% $1.19 Monster Call 16.0% $0.74 | $15.94 +569.8% | $2.66 +11.8% | 20.0% | +162.0% | $2.38 | — |