The Fracture Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Ultralight
1x $1.41
Freight
2x $1.70
Runic
1x $2.59
Blush Pour
2x $1.53
Shredded
2x $1.78
Rose Hex
1x $1.86
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
20.0% $33.42
Glitched Paint
20.0% $17.22
Bleeding Edge
20.0% $16.98
Brother
8.0% $11.42
Allure
8.0% $8.88
Monster Call
8.0% $8.24
Max Win
$33.42 (+72.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$16.81 (-13.3%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+47.9%
Cost
$19.40
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.40
Ask Price EV $16.81 (-13.3%)
Bid Price EV $16.19 (-16.6%)
Ask Profit $-2.59 (-13.3%)
Bid Profit $-3.21 (-16.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.63 (+3.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.59
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.21
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $33.42 (+72.3%)
Worst Case $5.57 (-71.3%)
Volatility +47.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$14.02
Avg Loss -$6.74
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.57 (-71.3%)
Std Dev $9.29
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 142h 41m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Ultralight
—
Factory New
$1.41 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Freight
—
Factory New
$1.70 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Freight
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Factory New
$2.59 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.78 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$2.16 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Arsenic Spill
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 12M 01S //TOTAL COST $19.40 //ASK PRICE EV $16.81 //BID PRICE EV $16.19 //ASK PROFIT $-2.59 (-13.3%) //BID PROFIT $-3.21 (-16.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +47.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$33.42
+$14.02
+72.3%
$31.48
+$12.08
+62.3%
$1.94
5.8%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$17.22
-$2.18
-11.2%
$16.69
-$2.71
-14.0%
$0.53
3.1%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$16.98
-$2.42
-12.5%
$16.48
-$2.92
-15.1%
$0.50
2.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$11.42
-$7.98
-41.1%
$11.24
-$8.16
-42.1%
$0.18
1.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$8.88
-$10.52
-54.2%
$8.83
-$10.57
-54.5%
$0.05
0.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$8.24
-$11.16
-57.5%
$8.11
-$11.29
-58.2%
$0.13
1.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$7.01
-$12.39
-63.8%
$6.99
-$12.41
-64.0%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$5.57
-$13.83
-71.3%
$5.52
-$13.88
-71.5%
$0.05
0.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.052425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.04683300000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 17.2205,
"optimistic_value": 17.07,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:45.733892Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.04194,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.055920000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 7.0135,
"optimistic_value": 7.01,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 6.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:46.486364Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 8.8805,
"optimistic_value": 8.87,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 8.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:18.204243Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 8.243500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 8.24,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 8.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:51:31.589840Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.055920000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 5.567,
"optimistic_value": 5.56,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 5.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:38.637682Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 11.424,
"optimistic_value": 11.41,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 11.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:33:46.736523Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_fb9d1245df590fcad690040c",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.41,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "507360492281933533",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:56.614168Z"
},
{
"price": 1.7,
"skin_id": "skin-7e9cf6e60b9f",
"listing_id": "516368436282328550",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Freight (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Freight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7e9cf6e60b9f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:10.795878Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-7e9cf6e60b9f",
"listing_id": "510738989039482642",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Freight (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Freight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7e9cf6e60b9f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:10.795878Z"
},
{
"price": 2.59,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "496102237882527407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:18.120595Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:28.349533Z"
},
{
"price": 1.78,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "499479989896313401",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:33.801466Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "506235389468941512",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:33.801466Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:24.563657Z"
},
{
"price": 2.16,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "492724590626509821",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:09.205039Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"listing_id": "517494388633695730",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:58.669448Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 20.0% $33.42 Glitched Paint 20.0% $17.22 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $16.98 Allure 8.0% $1.70 Monster Call 8.0% $1.58 Brother 8.0% $1.54 | $33.42 +153.6% | $14.11 +7.0% | 60.0% | +81.6% | $13.18 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.10 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.34 Monster Call 10.0% $0.74 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Brother 10.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +319.5% | $5.08 +33.8% | 50.0% | +134.3% | $3.80 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.59 Monster Call 6.0% $0.74 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Connexion 6.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +203.6% | $6.89 +31.1% | 70.0% | +97.8% | $5.25 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.10 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.34 Monster Call 14.0% $0.74 Allure 14.0% $0.74 Connexion 14.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +515.5% | $3.34 +28.8% | 30.0% | +175.1% | $2.59 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.34 Monster Call 4.0% $0.74 Allure 4.0% $0.74 Connexion 4.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +162.6% | $7.70 +26.9% | 53.3% | +83.3% | $6.07 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.59 Monster Call 2.0% $0.74 Allure 2.0% $0.74 Connexion 2.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +133.4% | $8.65 +26.6% | 60.0% | +70.7% | $6.83 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.59 Connexion 16.0% $1.28 Kitbash 16.0% $1.19 Monster Call 16.0% $0.74 | $15.94 +572.6% | $2.65 +11.8% | 20.0% | +162.7% | $2.37 | — |