The Fracture Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Ol' Rusty
2x $0.31
Mainframe 001
1x $0.41
Gnarled
1x $0.47
Blush Pour
3x $1.53
Shredded
2x $1.78
Rose Hex
1x $1.86
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
20.0% $33.42
Glitched Paint
20.0% $17.22
Bleeding Edge
20.0% $16.98
Allure
8.0% $1.70
Monster Call
8.0% $1.58
Brother
8.0% $1.54
Max Win
$33.42 (+153.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$14.11 (+7.0%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+90.5%
Cost
$13.18
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $13.18
Ask Price EV $14.11 (+7.0%)
Bid Price EV $13.49 (+2.3%)
Ask Profit $0.93 (+7.0%)
Bid Profit $0.31 (+2.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.62 (+4.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.93
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.31
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $33.42 (+153.6%)
Worst Case $1.19 (-91.0%)
Volatility +90.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$9.36
Avg Loss -$11.72
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.19 (-91.0%)
Std Dev $11.92
Avg Norm Float 0.0932
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 142h 41m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.78 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$2.16 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 12M 09S //TOTAL COST $13.18 //ASK PRICE EV $14.11 //BID PRICE EV $13.49 //ASK PROFIT $0.93 (+7.0%) //BID PROFIT $0.31 (+2.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +90.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$33.42
+$20.24
+153.6%
$31.48
+$18.30
+138.8%
$1.94
5.8%
—
WIN
20.0%
$17.22
+$4.04
+30.7%
$16.69
+$3.51
+26.6%
$0.53
3.1%
—
WIN
20.0%
$16.98
+$3.80
+28.8%
$16.48
+$3.30
+25.0%
$0.50
2.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.70
-$11.48
-87.1%
$1.54
-$11.64
-88.3%
$0.16
9.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.58
-$11.60
-88.0%
$1.55
-$11.63
-88.2%
$0.03
1.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.54
-$11.64
-88.3%
$1.53
-$11.65
-88.4%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.28
-$11.91
-90.3%
$1.23
-$11.95
-90.7%
$0.04
3.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.19
-$11.99
-91.0%
$1.12
-$12.06
-91.5%
$0.07
6.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.0699075,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.062450700000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 17.2205,
"optimistic_value": 17.07,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:45.733892Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.055926,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.07456800000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 1.275,
"optimistic_value": 1.24,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 1.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:51:34.944987Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09321,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 1.7005,
"optimistic_value": 1.69,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 1.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:51:53.742445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09321,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 1.58,
"optimistic_value": 1.58,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 1.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:27:11.859503Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.07456800000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 1.1909999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.17,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:26:34.319129Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09321,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 1.54,
"optimistic_value": 1.54,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 1.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:27:04.328279Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_fb9d1245df590fcad690040c",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "508487189338851806",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:26.121433Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "511864836540298521",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:52.828308Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "500605889841250067",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:12.208333Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "643593816554451037",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:54.351815Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:28.349533Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:28.349533Z"
},
{
"price": 1.78,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "499479989896313401",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:33.801466Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "506235389468941512",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:33.801466Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:24.563657Z"
},
{
"price": 2.16,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "492724590626509821",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:09.205039Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.10 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.34 Monster Call 10.0% $0.74 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Brother 10.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +319.5% | $5.08 +33.8% | 50.0% | +134.3% | $3.80 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.59 Monster Call 6.0% $0.74 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Connexion 6.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +203.6% | $6.89 +31.1% | 70.0% | +97.8% | $5.25 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.10 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.34 Monster Call 14.0% $0.74 Allure 14.0% $0.74 Connexion 14.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +515.5% | $3.34 +28.8% | 30.0% | +175.1% | $2.59 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.34 Monster Call 4.0% $0.74 Allure 4.0% $0.74 Connexion 4.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +162.6% | $7.70 +26.9% | 53.3% | +83.3% | $6.07 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.59 Monster Call 2.0% $0.74 Allure 2.0% $0.74 Connexion 2.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +133.4% | $8.65 +26.6% | 60.0% | +70.7% | $6.83 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.59 Connexion 16.0% $1.28 Kitbash 16.0% $1.19 Monster Call 16.0% $0.74 | $15.94 +572.6% | $2.65 +11.8% | 20.0% | +162.7% | $2.37 | — |