The Fracture Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Mainframe 001
2x $0.13
Ultralight
1x $0.14
Runic
1x $0.15
Shredded
3x $0.26
Red Tide
2x $0.28
Rose Hex
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
20.0% $5.01
Glitched Paint
20.0% $2.96
Bleeding Edge
20.0% $2.10
Connexion
8.0% $0.70
Brother
8.0% $0.69
Monster Call
8.0% $0.67
Max Win
$5.01 (+108.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.28 (-4.8%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+67.4%
Cost
$2.40
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.40
Ask Price EV $2.28 (-4.8%)
Bid Price EV $2.10 (-12.4%)
Ask Profit $-0.12 (-4.8%)
Bid Profit $-0.30 (-12.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.18 (+7.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.12
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.30
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $5.01 (+108.6%)
Worst Case $0.64 (-73.3%)
Volatility +67.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$1.58
Avg Loss -$1.25
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.64 (-73.3%)
Std Dev $1.62
Avg Norm Float 0.4308
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 142h 7m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 12M 08S //TOTAL COST $2.40 //ASK PRICE EV $2.28 //BID PRICE EV $2.10 //ASK PROFIT $-0.12 (-4.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.30 (-12.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $5.01 //VOLATILITY +67.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$5.01
+$2.61
+108.6%
$4.66
+$2.26
+94.2%
$0.35
6.9%
—
WIN
20.0%
$2.96
+$0.56
+23.4%
$2.76
+$0.36
+15.0%
$0.20
6.8%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$2.10
-$0.30
-12.5%
$1.90
-$0.50
-20.8%
$0.20
9.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.70
-$1.70
-70.7%
$0.62
-$1.78
-74.2%
$0.08
11.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.69
-$1.71
-71.3%
$0.55
-$1.85
-77.1%
$0.14
20.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.67
-$1.73
-72.1%
$0.59
-$1.81
-75.4%
$0.08
12.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.67
-$1.73
-72.1%
$0.63
-$1.77
-73.8%
$0.04
6.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.64
-$1.76
-73.3%
$0.58
-$1.82
-75.8%
$0.06
9.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.32306250000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 5.0065,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 4.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.975888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.28860250000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 2.9619999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 2.92,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 2.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:26.086976Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.25845,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.1,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.888062Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.3446,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 0.704,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:10:38.898037Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.43075,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 0.6405000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 0.63,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 0.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:41:14.360896Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.43075,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 0.6705,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 0.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:49:03.275213Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.3446,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 0.6705,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 0.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:22:39.765010Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.43075,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 0.69,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 0.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T10:36:25.969052Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_fb9d1245df590fcad690040c",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "492724590625972629",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:10.767422Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "490472738292959487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:58.214595Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "503983537176426151",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:42:29.227956Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "646971516261106184",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:10.767422Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "496102290328488011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:55.747633Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "527627435178804896",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:55.747633Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "509613089304634059",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:10.505483Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "498353293087104787",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:10.505483Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "501731789730287357",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:41.092385Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:46.076673Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 20.0% $33.42 Glitched Paint 20.0% $17.22 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $16.98 Allure 8.0% $1.70 Monster Call 8.0% $1.58 Brother 8.0% $1.54 | $33.42 +153.6% | $14.11 +7.0% | 60.0% | +81.6% | $13.18 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.10 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.34 Monster Call 10.0% $0.74 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Brother 10.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +319.5% | $5.08 +33.8% | 50.0% | +134.3% | $3.80 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.59 Monster Call 6.0% $0.74 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Connexion 6.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +203.6% | $6.89 +31.1% | 70.0% | +97.8% | $5.25 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.10 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.34 Monster Call 14.0% $0.74 Allure 14.0% $0.74 Connexion 14.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +515.5% | $3.34 +28.8% | 30.0% | +175.1% | $2.59 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.34 Monster Call 4.0% $0.74 Allure 4.0% $0.74 Connexion 4.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +162.6% | $7.70 +26.9% | 53.3% | +83.3% | $6.07 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.59 Monster Call 2.0% $0.74 Allure 2.0% $0.74 Connexion 2.0% $0.70 | $15.94 +133.4% | $8.65 +26.6% | 60.0% | +70.7% | $6.83 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.59 Connexion 16.0% $1.28 Kitbash 16.0% $1.19 Monster Call 16.0% $0.74 | $15.94 +572.6% | $2.65 +11.8% | 20.0% | +162.7% | $2.37 | — |