The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Zubastick
3x $0.16
Dark Polymer
2x $0.20
Fragment
1x $0.24
Sky Mandala
1x $0.35
Fraise Crane
1x $0.37
Earth Mandala
1x $0.43
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
20.0% $7.91
Electrum
12.0% $3.09
Sleeping Potion
20.0% $2.61
Firebreathing
12.0% $2.02
Galigator
12.0% $1.98
Urban Sovereign
12.0% $1.40
Max Win
$7.91 (+180.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.29 (+16.6%)
Win %
32.0%
Volatility
+84.3%
Cost
$2.82
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.82
Ask Price EV $3.29 (+16.6%)
Bid Price EV $2.87 (+1.9%)
Ask Profit $0.47 (+16.6%)
Bid Profit $0.05 (+1.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.42 (+14.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.47
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.05
Risk
Win Probability 32.0%
Loss Probability 68.0%
Best Case $7.91 (+180.7%)
Worst Case $1.36 (-51.6%)
Volatility +84.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$3.29
Avg Loss -$0.86
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.36 (-51.6%)
Std Dev $2.38
Avg Norm Float 0.4498
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 139h 1m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 30S //TOTAL COST $2.82 //ASK PRICE EV $3.29 //BID PRICE EV $2.87 //ASK PROFIT $0.47 (+16.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.05 (+1.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 32.0% //BEST CASE $7.91 //VOLATILITY +84.3% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$7.91
+$5.09
+180.7%
$7.15
+$4.33
+153.5%
$0.76
9.7%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$3.09
+$0.27
+9.6%
$2.55
-$0.27
-9.6%
$0.54
17.5%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$2.61
-$0.21
-7.3%
$2.25
-$0.57
-20.2%
$0.36
13.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$2.02
-$0.80
-28.2%
$1.87
-$0.95
-33.7%
$0.15
7.6%
—
LOSS THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$1.98
-$0.84
-29.8%
$1.30
-$1.52
-53.9%
$0.68
34.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$1.40
-$1.42
-50.4%
$1.30
-$1.52
-53.9%
$0.10
7.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$1.36
-$1.46
-51.6%
$1.26
-$1.56
-55.3%
$0.10
7.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.314888,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.914499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 7.89,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 7.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:41.074809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.314888,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.6145,
"optimistic_value": 2.59,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:57.950743Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.44984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.0235,
"optimistic_value": 2.02,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 1.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:09:27.454296Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.44984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 1.9809999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.89,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T04:16:23.451221Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.44984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 3.0915,
"optimistic_value": 3.06,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 2.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:14:00.395844Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.44984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.364,
"optimistic_value": 1.35,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:56:26.565617Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.44984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.3975,
"optimistic_value": 1.38,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:33:34.503159Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_fb8391ada69612bc0c26d42a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "525375688036652335",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:56:29.517605Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "529879287550965708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:56:29.517605Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "493850490549435088",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:56:29.517605Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "496102290328937003",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:24.881558Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "507361289453072641",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:24.881558Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "528753387757060533",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:23.414224Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "491598690699352706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:50:56.227182Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "501731789729082221",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:47:48.054913Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "515242588554508309",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:00.906408Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "503983589619183691",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:15.230095Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:6+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Amberline 12.0% $1.88 | $13.38 +170.9% | $6.57 +33.1% | 40.0% | +95.3% | $4.94 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 20.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Electrum 12.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 12.0% $5.02 Amberline 12.0% $3.27 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $3.22 | $26.79 +123.2% | $12.89 +7.4% | 40.0% | +83.4% | $12.00 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Exothermic 20.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Electrum 12.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 12.0% $12.97 Galigator 12.0% $11.12 Amberline 12.0% $10.21 | $26.79 +53.4% | $17.92 +2.7% | 52.0% | +36.5% | $17.46 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Amberline 14.0% $1.89 | $13.38 +217.1% | $5.57 +31.9% | 30.0% | +105.7% | $4.22 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $7.57 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $2.61 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Amberline 16.0% $1.88 | $7.57 +193.4% | $3.06 +18.7% | 52.0% | +62.3% | $2.58 | — |