The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Zubastick
4x $0.61
Bock Blocks
2x $0.77
Warm Blooded
3x $1.05
Earth Mandala
1x $2.24
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
20.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
20.0% $24.63
Electrum
12.0% $7.00
Firebreathing
12.0% $5.02
Amberline
12.0% $3.27
Urban Sovereign
12.0% $3.22
Max Win
$26.79 (+123.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$12.89 (+7.4%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+87.9%
Cost
$12.00
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $12.00
Ask Price EV $12.89 (+7.4%)
Bid Price EV $11.94 (-0.5%)
Ask Profit $0.89 (+7.4%)
Bid Profit $-0.06 (-0.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.95 (+7.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.89
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.06
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $26.79 (+123.2%)
Worst Case $3.20 (-73.3%)
Volatility +87.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$13.71
Avg Loss -$7.66
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.20 (-73.3%)
Std Dev $10.55
Avg Norm Float 0.1000
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 138h 58m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.74 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.77 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.58 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.26 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 31S //TOTAL COST $12.00 //ASK PRICE EV $12.89 //BID PRICE EV $11.94 //ASK PROFIT $0.89 (+7.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.06 (-0.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $26.79 //VOLATILITY +87.9% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$26.79
+$14.79
+123.2%
$25.85
+$13.85
+115.4%
$0.94
3.5%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$24.63
+$12.63
+105.3%
$22.28
+$10.28
+85.7%
$2.35
9.5%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$7.00
-$5.00
-41.7%
$5.93
-$6.07
-50.6%
$1.07
15.2%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$5.02
-$6.98
-58.2%
$3.97
-$8.03
-66.9%
$1.05
20.9%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$3.27
-$8.73
-72.8%
$3.11
-$8.89
-74.1%
$0.16
4.9%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$3.22
-$8.78
-73.2%
$3.12
-$8.88
-74.0%
$0.10
3.0%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$3.20
-$8.80
-73.3%
$3.16
-$8.84
-73.7%
$0.04
1.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.06999299999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:42.529770Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.06999299999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.09999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 4.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.09999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.2045,
"optimistic_value": 3.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 3.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:47.930075Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.09999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 6.997,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.09999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 3.27,
"optimistic_value": 3.27,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 3.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:56:46.510510Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.09999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.218,
"optimistic_value": 3.19,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 3.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:09.311154Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_fb8391ada69612bc0c26d42a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "511864888984632825",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:45:50.909217Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "496102124624078867",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:45:50.909217Z"
},
{
"price": 0.74,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "496101493259171339",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:45:50.909217Z"
},
{
"price": 0.77,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525374890948044523",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:21.656462Z"
},
{
"price": 0.83,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "632334745617362111",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:45:50.909217Z"
},
{
"price": 1.58,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "490472790736368303",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:09:13.752688Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "519746188258403972",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:13.017626Z"
},
{
"price": 1.26,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "510738823413937978",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:13.017626Z"
},
{
"price": 2.24,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "523123888072205182",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:52.986960Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472790737055183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:6+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Amberline 12.0% $1.88 | $13.38 +170.9% | $6.57 +33.1% | 40.0% | +95.3% | $4.94 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 20.0% $7.91 Electrum 12.0% $3.09 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $2.61 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.02 Galigator 12.0% $1.98 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.40 | $7.91 +180.7% | $3.29 +16.6% | 32.0% | +80.9% | $2.82 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Exothermic 20.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Electrum 12.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 12.0% $12.97 Galigator 12.0% $11.12 Amberline 12.0% $10.21 | $26.79 +53.4% | $17.92 +2.7% | 52.0% | +36.5% | $17.46 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Amberline 14.0% $1.89 | $13.38 +217.1% | $5.57 +31.9% | 30.0% | +105.7% | $4.22 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $7.57 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $2.61 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Amberline 16.0% $1.88 | $7.57 +193.4% | $3.06 +18.7% | 52.0% | +62.3% | $2.58 | — |