The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Zubastick
2x $0.66
RMX
1x $0.94
Fragment
1x $1.55
Bock Blocks
2x $1.58
Earth Mandala
1x $2.24
Warm Blooded
3x $2.27
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
20.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
20.0% $24.63
Electrum
12.0% $19.50
Firebreathing
12.0% $12.97
Galigator
12.0% $11.12
Amberline
12.0% $10.21
Max Win
$26.79 (+53.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.92 (+2.7%)
Win %
52.0%
Volatility
+39.9%
Cost
$17.46
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $17.46
Ask Price EV $17.92 (+2.7%)
Bid Price EV $16.77 (-4.0%)
Ask Profit $0.46 (+2.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.69 (-4.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.16 (+6.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.46
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.69
Risk
Win Probability 52.0%
Loss Probability 48.0%
Best Case $26.79 (+53.4%)
Worst Case $9.87 (-43.5%)
Volatility +39.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$6.82
Avg Loss -$6.42
Bottom 5% Outcome $9.87 (-43.5%)
Std Dev $6.96
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 139h 8m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Factory New
$1.55 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.58 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.21 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 21S //TOTAL COST $17.46 //ASK PRICE EV $17.92 //BID PRICE EV $16.77 //ASK PROFIT $0.46 (+2.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.69 (-4.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 52.0% //BEST CASE $26.79 //VOLATILITY +39.9% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$26.79
+$9.33
+53.4%
$25.85
+$8.39
+48.1%
$0.94
3.5%
—
WIN
20.0%
$24.63
+$7.17
+41.1%
$22.28
+$4.82
+27.6%
$2.35
9.5%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$19.50
+$2.04
+11.7%
$17.32
-$0.14
-0.8%
$2.18
11.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$12.97
-$4.49
-25.7%
$11.57
-$5.89
-33.7%
$1.40
10.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$11.12
-$6.34
-36.3%
$10.67
-$6.79
-38.9%
$0.45
4.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$10.21
-$7.25
-41.5%
$10.09
-$7.37
-42.2%
$0.12
1.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$9.87
-$7.59
-43.5%
$9.85
-$7.61
-43.6%
$0.02
0.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:42.529770Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 12.967,
"optimistic_value": 12.89,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 11.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:51.443586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 11.117,
"optimistic_value": 10.83,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 10.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:03:36.124481Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 19.4975,
"optimistic_value": 19.34,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 17.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:57.497142Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 10.211,
"optimistic_value": 10.19,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 10.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:03:44.801975Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 9.8705,
"optimistic_value": 9.86,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 9.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:07:02.129748Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_fb8391ada69612bc0c26d42a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "527627435179261700",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:45:50.909217Z"
},
{
"price": 0.83,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "632334745617362111",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:45:50.909217Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "527627435179257020",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:47:30.805631Z"
},
{
"price": 1.55,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "500605889840840207",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:48:01.021536Z"
},
{
"price": 1.58,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "490472790736368303",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:09:13.752688Z"
},
{
"price": 2.21,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "502857637418052784",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:09:13.752688Z"
},
{
"price": 2.24,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "523123888072205182",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:52.986960Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472790737055183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z"
},
{
"price": 2.48,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "500605724248646447",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:6+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Amberline 12.0% $1.88 | $13.38 +170.9% | $6.57 +33.1% | 40.0% | +95.3% | $4.94 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 20.0% $7.91 Electrum 12.0% $3.09 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $2.61 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.02 Galigator 12.0% $1.98 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.40 | $7.91 +180.7% | $3.29 +16.6% | 32.0% | +80.9% | $2.82 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 20.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Electrum 12.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 12.0% $5.02 Amberline 12.0% $3.27 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $3.22 | $26.79 +123.2% | $12.89 +7.4% | 40.0% | +83.4% | $12.00 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Amberline 14.0% $1.89 | $13.38 +217.1% | $5.57 +31.9% | 30.0% | +105.7% | $4.22 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $7.57 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $2.61 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Amberline 16.0% $1.88 | $7.57 +193.4% | $3.06 +18.7% | 52.0% | +62.3% | $2.58 | — |