The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Fragment
1x $0.24
Zubastick
1x $0.32
Fusion
2x $0.43
RMX
1x $0.47
Bock Blocks
1x $0.50
Earth Mandala
3x $0.52
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
20.0% $13.87
Sleeping Potion
20.0% $11.82
Electrum
12.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
12.0% $2.79
Galigator
12.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
12.0% $1.79
Max Win
$13.87 (+170.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.65 (+29.9%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+100.4%
Cost
$5.12
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.12
Ask Price EV $6.65 (+29.9%)
Bid Price EV $5.84 (+14.1%)
Ask Profit $1.53 (+29.9%)
Bid Profit $0.72 (+14.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.81 (+15.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.53
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.72
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $13.87 (+170.9%)
Worst Case $1.74 (-66.0%)
Volatility +100.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$7.72
Avg Loss -$2.60
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.74 (-66.0%)
Std Dev $5.14
Avg Norm Float 0.2140
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 138h 3m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Field-Tested
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 44M 58S //TOTAL COST $5.12 //ASK PRICE EV $6.65 //BID PRICE EV $5.84 //ASK PROFIT $1.53 (+29.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.72 (+14.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $13.87 //VOLATILITY +100.4% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$13.87
+$8.75
+170.9%
$12.96
+$7.84
+153.1%
$0.91
6.5%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$11.82
+$6.70
+130.9%
$9.69
+$4.57
+89.3%
$2.13
18.0%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$4.11
-$1.01
-19.7%
$3.61
-$1.51
-29.5%
$0.50
12.2%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.79
-$2.33
-45.6%
$2.32
-$2.80
-54.7%
$0.47
16.8%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.19
-$2.93
-57.3%
$1.74
-$3.38
-66.0%
$0.45
20.4%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.79
-$3.33
-65.0%
$1.63
-$3.49
-68.2%
$0.16
9.0%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.74
-$3.38
-66.0%
$1.63
-$3.49
-68.2%
$0.11
6.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.14976499999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.868,
"optimistic_value": 13.84,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:02:57.917225Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.14976499999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 11.8215,
"optimistic_value": 11.79,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.21395,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.21395,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.21395,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.21395,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.7409999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:55:01.915007Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.21395,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.7915,
"optimistic_value": 1.76,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:03:27.615532Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_fb8391ada69612bc0c26d42a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "528753387757060533",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:34.841623Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "521997988014573054",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:48:56.745744Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "524249787961048587",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:00:16.222190Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "493850490549685288",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:00:16.222190Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "499479989895439429",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:55:10.750816Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "502857689862079180",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:38.752329Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "517494336189226390",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:38.787133Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "494976390476381946",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:30.651385Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "518620288313571268",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:38.787133Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "499479989895637069",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:38.787133Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:6+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 20.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Electrum 12.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 12.0% $5.02 Galigator 12.0% $3.37 Amberline 12.0% $3.27 | $26.79 +125.7% | $12.92 +8.8% | 40.0% | +84.1% | $11.87 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 20.0% $7.95 Electrum 12.0% $3.09 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $2.67 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.02 Galigator 12.0% $1.98 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.54 | $7.95 +154.9% | $3.32 +6.5% | 20.0% | +72.9% | $3.12 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Exothermic 20.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Electrum 12.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 12.0% $12.97 Galigator 12.0% $11.12 Amberline 12.0% $10.18 | $26.79 +51.6% | $17.92 +1.4% | 52.0% | +36.1% | $17.67 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Electrum 6.0% $2.61 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.14 Firebreathing 6.0% $1.83 Galigator 6.0% $1.63 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.39 | $9.85 +179.8% | $4.72 +34.0% | 35.0% | +104.6% | $3.52 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Electrum 2.0% $2.61 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.13 Firebreathing 2.0% $1.83 Galigator 2.0% $1.63 Urban Sovereign 2.0% $1.39 | $9.85 +135.1% | $5.57 +32.8% | 45.0% | +91.5% | $4.19 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.87 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Amberline 8.0% $1.96 | $13.87 +106.7% | $8.73 +30.2% | 60.0% | +70.6% | $6.71 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $13.87 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $1.79 | $13.87 +216.6% | $5.62 +28.3% | 30.0% | +104.9% | $4.38 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $12.87 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Amberline 10.0% $1.96 | $12.87 +119.6% | $7.45 +27.2% | 50.0% | +78.5% | $5.86 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $12.87 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Amberline 16.0% $1.96 | $12.87 +236.8% | $4.52 +18.3% | 36.0% | +100.5% | $3.82 | — |