The Genesis Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Red Wing
3x $0.69
Broken Record
2x $1.38
Wurst Hölle
3x $1.17
Teal Graf
1x $2.34
Metallic Squeezer
1x $2.68
↓
Possible Outputs
Eye of Zapems
16.7% $26.95
Sweet Little Angels
16.7% $25.66
Monster Melt
16.7% $20.38
Liquidation
10.0% $19.42
Cat Fight
10.0% $6.50
Angel Eyes
10.0% $6.27
Max Win
$26.95 (+55.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$16.61 (-4.2%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+50.8%
Cost
$17.34
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $17.34
Ask Price EV $16.61 (-4.2%)
Bid Price EV $16.10 (-7.1%)
Ask Profit $-0.73 (-4.2%)
Bid Profit $-1.24 (-7.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.50 (+2.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.73
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.24
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $26.95 (+55.4%)
Worst Case $6.09 (-64.9%)
Volatility +50.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$6.17
Avg Loss -$11.09
Bottom 5% Outcome $6.09 (-64.9%)
Std Dev $8.81
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 13m
Oldest Output Price 146h 12m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Minimal Wear
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Factory New
$1.38 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$1.39 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$1.45 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Factory New
$2.41 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Factory New
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Factory New
$2.68 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 42M 46S //TOTAL COST $17.34 //ASK PRICE EV $16.61 //BID PRICE EV $16.10 //ASK PROFIT $-0.73 (-4.2%) //BID PROFIT $-1.24 (-7.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $26.95 //VOLATILITY +50.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.7%
$26.95
+$9.61
+55.4%
$26.65
+$9.31
+53.7%
$0.30
1.1%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Factory New | ƒ 0.057318
The Overpass 2024 Collection
WIN
16.7%
$25.66
+$8.32
+48.0%
$25.62
+$8.28
+47.8%
$0.04
0.2%
—
WIN
16.7%
$20.38
+$3.04
+17.5%
$19.85
+$2.51
+14.5%
$0.53
2.6%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$19.42
+$2.08
+12.0%
$16.07
-$1.27
-7.3%
$3.35
17.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$6.50
-$10.84
-62.5%
$6.35
-$10.99
-63.4%
$0.15
2.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$6.27
-$11.07
-63.8%
$6.21
-$11.13
-64.2%
$0.06
1.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$6.14
-$11.20
-64.6%
$6.12
-$11.22
-64.7%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$6.09
-$11.25
-64.9%
$6.07
-$11.27
-65.0%
$0.02
0.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.059415,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 26.947499999999998,
"optimistic_value": 26.65,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 26.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:33.413073Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.057318,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 25.661,
"optimistic_value": 25.64,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.052425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 20.381,
"optimistic_value": 20.36,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 19.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:09:55.650264Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 6.27,
"optimistic_value": 6.27,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:30.905401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 19.4155,
"optimistic_value": 19.37,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 16.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:11:14.220331Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 6.5005,
"optimistic_value": 6.49,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 6.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:30.912075Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 6.09,
"optimistic_value": 6.09,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 6.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:27.040221Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 6.1370000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:03.899389Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f6c1631ecfe458f5c1a25bc3",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "519745391330807492",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:22:55.529209Z"
},
{
"price": 1.38,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "511864836540599481",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:22:10.344975Z"
},
{
"price": 1.39,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "507361289453364277",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:22:14.158857Z"
},
{
"price": 1.45,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "498354089953558939",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:22:14.158857Z"
},
{
"price": 2.41,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "521997988014612582",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:22:10.344975Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "523123888072288378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:44.675450Z"
},
{
"price": 1.49,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "625579418033580202",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:44.675450Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "524249787960700827",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:25.044453Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "494975741580158130",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:44.675450Z"
},
{
"price": 2.68,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "523123888072619974",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:20:14.594051Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:5+collection-set-overpass-2024:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.29 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.69 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Continuum 10.0% $1.09 | $10.49 +126.6% | $5.74 +24.0% | 50.0% | +78.6% | $4.63 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.29 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.69 Liquidation 10.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 10.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 10.0% $2.13 | $10.49 +85.0% | $6.52 +15.1% | 60.0% | +54.7% | $5.67 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Monster Melt 16.7% $4.28 Eye of Zapems 16.7% $4.05 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $4.04 Liquidation 10.0% $2.49 Cat Fight 10.0% $0.96 Continuum 10.0% $0.93 | $4.28 +65.8% | $2.67 +3.4% | 50.0% | +49.9% | $2.58 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.29 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.69 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.13 Continuum 8.0% $1.08 | $10.49 +98.7% | $6.56 +24.2% | 60.0% | +65.8% | $5.28 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 23.3% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $10.29 Monster Melt 23.3% $8.69 Liquidation 6.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 6.0% $1.13 Continuum 6.0% $1.09 | $10.49 +76.6% | $7.37 +24.1% | 70.0% | +53.3% | $5.94 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.29 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.69 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Continuum 12.0% $1.09 | $10.49 +155.2% | $4.92 +19.8% | 40.0% | +89.2% | $4.11 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 10.0% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $10.29 Monster Melt 10.0% $8.69 Liquidation 14.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 14.0% $2.26 Angel Eyes 14.0% $2.13 | $10.49 +134.7% | $5.20 +16.4% | 44.0% | +70.7% | $4.47 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 6.7% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $10.29 Monster Melt 6.7% $8.69 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 16.0% $2.13 | $10.49 +168.3% | $4.55 +16.3% | 36.0% | +76.8% | $3.91 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Crakow!  10.0% $103.76 Dragon Snore  10.0% $77.71 Ice Coaled  26.7% $24.72 Smoking Kills  26.7% $18.88 Mirror Mosaic  26.7% $17.05 | $103.76 +254.1% | $34.32 +17.1% | 20.0% | +98.8% | $29.30 | — |