The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Bone Forged
1x $0.30
Fraise Crane
4x $0.34
Earth Mandala
2x $0.43
Warm Blooded
2x $0.51
Sky Mandala
1x $0.60
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
45.0% $7.62
Sleeping Potion
45.0% $2.66
Fever Dream
2.0% $1.28
Apocalypto
2.0% $0.83
Darkwing
2.0% $0.81
Enforcer
2.0% $0.80
Max Win
$7.62 (+62.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.72 (+0.6%)
Win %
45.0%
Volatility
+57.0%
Cost
$4.69
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $4.69
Ask Price EV $4.72 (+0.6%)
Bid Price EV $4.31 (-8.1%)
Ask Profit $0.03 (+0.6%)
Bid Profit $-0.38 (-8.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.41 (+8.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.03
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.38
Risk
Win Probability 45.0%
Loss Probability 55.0%
Best Case $7.62 (+62.4%)
Worst Case $0.78 (-83.4%)
Volatility +57.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 55.0%
Avg Win +$2.93
Avg Loss -$2.35
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.81 (-82.7%)
Std Dev $2.67
Avg Norm Float 0.4485
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 12m
Oldest Output Price 139h 1m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Bone Forged
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 57M 26S //TOTAL COST $4.69 //ASK PRICE EV $4.72 //BID PRICE EV $4.31 //ASK PROFIT $0.03 (+0.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.38 (-8.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 45.0% //BEST CASE $7.62 //VOLATILITY +57.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
45.0%
$7.62
+$2.93
+62.4%
$7.15
+$2.46
+52.5%
$0.47
6.1%
—
NUKE
45.0%
$2.66
-$2.03
-43.2%
$2.25
-$2.44
-52.0%
$0.41
15.5%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$1.28
-$3.41
-72.6%
$1.18
-$3.51
-74.8%
$0.10
8.1%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$0.83
-$3.86
-82.3%
$0.69
-$4.00
-85.3%
$0.14
16.9%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$0.81
-$3.88
-82.7%
$0.74
-$3.95
-84.2%
$0.07
9.0%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$0.80
-$3.89
-82.9%
$0.71
-$3.98
-84.9%
$0.09
11.3%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$0.78
-$3.91
-83.4%
$0.70
-$3.99
-85.1%
$0.08
10.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.313978,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.617,
"optimistic_value": 7.47,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 7.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:41.074809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.313978,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.6635,
"optimistic_value": 2.66,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:57.950743Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.44854,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 0.7775000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:16:50.699893Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.44854,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 0.8,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:50:29.245174Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.44854,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 0.8135,
"optimistic_value": 0.81,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T06:50:42.656562Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.3229488,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 1.284,
"optimistic_value": 1.27,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 1.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:15.583125Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.44854,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 0.8305,
"optimistic_value": 0.82,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:06.390088Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f63e43fbd589b40ba0bb946e",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-3c54e05cbb62",
"listing_id": "524249787961211487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3c54e05cbb62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:03:47.340903Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "498353924438373895",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:11:31.372348Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "501731789729082221",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:11:31.372348Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "508487189339806562",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:40.177285Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "523123888072173646",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:00.906408Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "492724590626197773",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:40.177285Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "503983589619183691",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:15.230095Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "494976390476381946",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:15.230095Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "505109489448503948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:07.973449Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "518620288313571268",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:00.906408Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:1+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Fever Dream 2.0% $2.56 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.13 Apocalypto 2.0% $0.81 Acid Etched 2.0% $0.81 Enforcer 2.0% $0.81 | $9.85 +138.5% | $5.51 +33.3% | 45.0% | +94.2% | $4.13 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 8.0% $1.28 Apocalypto 8.0% $1.04 Acid Etched 8.0% $1.01 Enforcer 8.0% $1.00 | $13.38 +122.7% | $7.99 +32.9% | 60.0% | +88.7% | $6.01 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.26 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 10.0% $3.18 Apocalypto 10.0% $1.04 Acid Etched 10.0% $1.01 Darkwing 10.0% $0.97 | $13.26 +152.0% | $6.99 +32.8% | 50.0% | +100.3% | $5.26 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Fever Dream 4.0% $2.56 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.13 Apocalypto 4.0% $0.81 Acid Etched 4.0% $0.81 Enforcer 4.0% $0.81 | $9.85 +153.2% | $5.02 +29.1% | 40.0% | +99.7% | $3.89 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 6.0% $1.28 Apocalypto 6.0% $1.04 Acid Etched 6.0% $1.01 Enforcer 6.0% $1.00 | $13.38 +88.8% | $9.14 +28.9% | 70.0% | +69.7% | $7.09 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.26 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 12.0% $3.18 Apocalypto 12.0% $1.04 Acid Etched 12.0% $1.01 Darkwing 12.0% $0.97 | $13.26 +185.1% | $5.88 +26.4% | 40.0% | +112.5% | $4.65 | — |