The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Tom Cat
1x $0.50
Sky Mandala
2x $2.07
Warm Blooded
7x $2.27
↓
Possible Outputs
Acid Etched
2.0% $34.68
Exothermic
45.0% $26.65
Sleeping Potion
45.0% $24.63
Enforcer
2.0% $9.50
Darkwing
2.0% $9.49
Apocalypto
2.0% $9.31
Max Win
$34.68 (+26.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$24.50 (-10.9%)
Win %
2.0%
Volatility
+17.5%
Cost
$27.50
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $27.50
Ask Price EV $24.50 (-10.9%)
Bid Price EV $23.00 (-16.4%)
Ask Profit $-3.00 (-10.9%)
Bid Profit $-4.50 (-16.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.50 (+5.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.00
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.50
Risk
Win Probability 2.0%
Loss Probability 98.0%
Best Case $34.68 (+26.1%)
Worst Case $8.26 (-70.0%)
Volatility +17.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 8.0%
Avg Win +$7.17
Avg Loss -$3.21
Bottom 5% Outcome $9.49 (-65.5%)
Std Dev $4.80
Avg Norm Float 0.0694
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 139h 4m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$2.07 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.59 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.84 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$4.02 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 56M 52S //TOTAL COST $27.50 //ASK PRICE EV $24.50 //BID PRICE EV $23.00 //ASK PROFIT $-3.00 (-10.9%) //BID PROFIT $-4.50 (-16.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 2.0% //BEST CASE $34.68 //VOLATILITY +17.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$34.68
+$7.17
+26.1%
$32.11
+$4.61
+16.8%
$2.56
7.4%
—
LOSS
45.0%
$26.65
-$0.85
-3.1%
$25.85
-$1.65
-6.0%
$0.80
3.0%
—
LOSS
45.0%
$24.63
-$2.87
-10.4%
$22.28
-$5.22
-19.0%
$2.35
9.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$9.50
-$18.00
-65.4%
$8.94
-$18.56
-67.5%
$0.56
5.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$9.49
-$18.01
-65.5%
$9.24
-$18.26
-66.4%
$0.25
2.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$9.31
-$18.19
-66.1%
$8.74
-$18.76
-68.2%
$0.57
6.1%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$8.26
-$19.24
-70.0%
$7.96
-$19.54
-71.1%
$0.30
3.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.048608,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.6525,
"optimistic_value": 26.6,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:42.529770Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.048608,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06944,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 34.675,
"optimistic_value": 34.5,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 32.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:31.771580Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06944,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 9.503,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 8.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:56:20.937060Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06944,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 9.487,
"optimistic_value": 9.48,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 9.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:33:13.561634Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0499968,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 8.261,
"optimistic_value": 8.1,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 7.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:18.830213Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06944,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 9.311,
"optimistic_value": 9.22,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 8.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:25.232791Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f63e43fbd589b40ba0bb946e",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "669488905360173675",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:41.052334Z"
},
{
"price": 2.07,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "516367691480150330",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:29.524614Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472790737055183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z"
},
{
"price": 2.48,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "500605724248646447",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z"
},
{
"price": 2.59,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "518620235868493708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z"
},
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109323870001060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z"
},
{
"price": 3.84,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "516368322944655998",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "501731789729270537",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:58.289082Z"
},
{
"price": 4.02,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "526500790836642953",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:1+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Fever Dream 2.0% $2.56 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.13 Apocalypto 2.0% $0.81 Acid Etched 2.0% $0.81 Enforcer 2.0% $0.81 | $9.85 +138.5% | $5.51 +33.3% | 45.0% | +94.2% | $4.13 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 45.0% $7.62 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.66 Fever Dream 2.0% $1.28 Apocalypto 2.0% $0.83 Darkwing 2.0% $0.81 Enforcer 2.0% $0.80 | $7.62 +62.4% | $4.72 +0.6% | 45.0% | +55.7% | $4.69 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 8.0% $1.28 Apocalypto 8.0% $1.04 Acid Etched 8.0% $1.01 Enforcer 8.0% $1.00 | $13.38 +122.7% | $7.99 +32.9% | 60.0% | +88.7% | $6.01 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.26 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 10.0% $3.18 Apocalypto 10.0% $1.04 Acid Etched 10.0% $1.01 Darkwing 10.0% $0.97 | $13.26 +152.0% | $6.99 +32.8% | 50.0% | +100.3% | $5.26 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Fever Dream 4.0% $2.56 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.13 Apocalypto 4.0% $0.81 Acid Etched 4.0% $0.81 Enforcer 4.0% $0.81 | $9.85 +153.2% | $5.02 +29.1% | 40.0% | +99.7% | $3.89 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.38 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 6.0% $1.28 Apocalypto 6.0% $1.04 Acid Etched 6.0% $1.01 Enforcer 6.0% $1.00 | $13.38 +88.8% | $9.14 +28.9% | 70.0% | +69.7% | $7.09 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.26 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 12.0% $3.18 Apocalypto 12.0% $1.04 Acid Etched 12.0% $1.01 Darkwing 12.0% $0.97 | $13.26 +185.1% | $5.88 +26.4% | 40.0% | +112.5% | $4.65 | — |