The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Tom Cat
1x $0.29
Fraise Crane
4x $0.34
Sky Mandala
1x $0.40
Earth Mandala
3x $0.52
Warm Blooded
1x $0.54
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
45.0% $7.92
Sleeping Potion
45.0% $2.67
Fever Dream
2.0% $2.56
Apocalypto
2.0% $0.81
Acid Etched
2.0% $0.81
Enforcer
2.0% $0.81
Max Win
$7.92 (+69.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.88 (+4.7%)
Win %
45.0%
Volatility
+59.9%
Cost
$4.66
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $4.66
Ask Price EV $4.88 (+4.7%)
Bid Price EV $4.29 (-8.0%)
Ask Profit $0.22 (+4.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.37 (-8.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.59 (+12.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.22
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.37
Risk
Win Probability 45.0%
Loss Probability 55.0%
Best Case $7.92 (+69.9%)
Worst Case $0.79 (-83.1%)
Volatility +59.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 55.0%
Avg Win +$3.26
Avg Loss -$2.26
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.81 (-82.6%)
Std Dev $2.79
Avg Norm Float 0.5311
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 138h 6m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.53 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 52M 42S //TOTAL COST $4.66 //ASK PRICE EV $4.88 //BID PRICE EV $4.29 //ASK PROFIT $0.22 (+4.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.37 (-8.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 45.0% //BEST CASE $7.92 //VOLATILITY +59.9% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
45.0%
$7.92
+$3.26
+69.9%
$7.05
+$2.39
+51.3%
$0.87
10.9%
—
NUKE
45.0%
$2.67
-$1.99
-42.7%
$2.25
-$2.41
-51.7%
$0.42
15.7%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$2.56
-$2.10
-45.0%
$2.27
-$2.39
-51.3%
$0.29
11.4%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$0.81
-$3.85
-82.5%
$0.71
-$3.95
-84.8%
$0.10
12.7%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$0.81
-$3.85
-82.6%
$0.70
-$3.96
-85.0%
$0.11
13.6%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$0.81
-$3.85
-82.6%
$0.71
-$3.95
-84.8%
$0.10
12.3%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$0.79
-$3.87
-83.1%
$0.77
-$3.89
-83.5%
$0.02
2.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.37177,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.916,
"optimistic_value": 7.86,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 7.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:51:45.985066Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.37177,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.6705,
"optimistic_value": 2.66,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:07:49.733520Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.5311,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 0.81,
"optimistic_value": 0.81,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:28.995374Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.5311,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 0.81,
"optimistic_value": 0.81,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:06:31.858606Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.5311,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 0.787,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 0.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:07:49.300440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.382392,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 2.5635,
"optimistic_value": 2.56,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 2.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:14:52.108595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.5311,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 0.8135,
"optimistic_value": 0.81,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T15:27:18.500898Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f63e43fbd589b40ba0bb946e",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "524249787960872331",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:52:21.096389Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "528753387757079829",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:57:11.546669Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "501731789729082221",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:57:11.546669Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "508487189339587610",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:00:29.200122Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "501731789729807801",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:46.978030Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "525375688036586059",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:46.978030Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "517494336189226390",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:38.787133Z"
},
{
"price": 0.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "506235337026096348",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:38.787133Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "494976390476381946",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:30.651385Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "518620288313571268",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:38.787133Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:1+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $12.87 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 10.0% $1.28 Apocalypto 10.0% $1.04 Acid Etched 10.0% $1.01 Enforcer 10.0% $1.00 | $12.87 +151.3% | $6.70 +30.9% | 50.0% | +104.6% | $5.12 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.87 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 6.0% $1.28 Apocalypto 6.0% $1.04 Acid Etched 6.0% $1.01 Enforcer 6.0% $1.00 | $13.87 +94.0% | $9.31 +30.2% | 70.0% | +70.9% | $7.15 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $12.87 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 8.0% $1.28 Apocalypto 8.0% $1.04 Acid Etched 8.0% $1.01 Enforcer 8.0% $1.00 | $12.87 +104.5% | $7.83 +24.4% | 60.0% | +82.5% | $6.29 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.97 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $11.82 Fever Dream 12.0% $2.99 Apocalypto 12.0% $1.04 Acid Etched 12.0% $1.01 Enforcer 12.0% $1.00 | $13.97 +184.4% | $5.99 +22.0% | 40.0% | +110.6% | $4.91 | — |