The Boreal Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Poplar Thicket
3x $0.15
Gold Leaf
2x $0.18
Copperflage
2x $0.42
Red Tide
1x $0.27
Blush Pour
2x $0.32
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
10.0% $4.87
Glitched Paint
10.0% $3.00
Bleeding Edge
10.0% $2.16
Sheet Lightning
35.0% $1.71
Glockingbird
35.0% $1.47
Max Win
$4.87 (+85.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.12 (-19.5%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+38.7%
Cost
$2.63
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.63
Ask Price EV $2.12 (-19.5%)
Bid Price EV $1.96 (-25.3%)
Ask Profit $-0.51 (-19.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.67 (-25.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.15 (+5.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.51
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.67
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $4.87 (+85.1%)
Worst Case $1.47 (-44.1%)
Volatility +38.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$1.30
Avg Loss -$0.97
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.47 (-44.1%)
Std Dev $1.02
Avg Norm Float 0.4490
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 60h 1m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 14M 11S //TOTAL COST $2.63 //ASK PRICE EV $2.12 //BID PRICE EV $1.96 //ASK PROFIT $-0.51 (-19.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.67 (-25.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $4.87 //VOLATILITY +38.7% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$4.87
+$2.24
+85.1%
$4.33
+$1.70
+64.6%
$0.54
11.1%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$3.00
+$0.37
+14.1%
$2.80
+$0.17
+6.5%
$0.20
6.7%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$2.16
-$0.47
-18.0%
$1.90
-$0.73
-27.8%
$0.26
11.9%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$1.71
-$0.92
-34.8%
$1.58
-$1.05
-39.9%
$0.13
7.8%
—
NUKE
35.0%
$1.47
-$1.16
-44.1%
$1.45
-$1.18
-44.9%
$0.02
1.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.30083000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 1.4705,
"optimistic_value": 1.46,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 1.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:48.621136Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.33675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 1.714,
"optimistic_value": 1.7,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 1.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T03:16:00.439567Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.33675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 4.8685,
"optimistic_value": 4.83,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 4.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:38.791136Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.30083000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 3,
"optimistic_value": 3,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 2.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:53:13.858260Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.2694,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.1575,
"optimistic_value": 2.14,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:53:04.612538Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f31c25ff03e9e8c03e4850dc",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "493850543433082972",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:00:13.393525Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "502857742727571724",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:00:13.393525Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "515241791647875565",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:00:13.393525Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "491598638253896138",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:02:50.731103Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "514116523133772618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:02:50.731103Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "507361342334648329",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:53:01.781594Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "512990789045074739",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:53:01.781594Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "527627540537868440",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:52:56.073287Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "490472843633744067",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:53:17.977969Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "506235442368498516",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:53:17.977969Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.45 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.28 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.82 | $15.50 +236.9% | $5.96 +29.6% | 65.0% | +72.0% | $4.60 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 10.0% $32.23 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $16.97 Glitched Paint 10.0% $16.71 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $15.06 Glockingbird 35.0% $11.77 | $32.23 +120.0% | $16.46 +12.3% | 65.0% | +39.1% | $14.65 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.50 Glitched Paint 13.3% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.45 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.28 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.82 | $15.50 +214.4% | $6.43 +30.5% | 70.0% | +74.7% | $4.93 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.50 Glitched Paint 6.7% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.45 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $5.33 Glockingbird 40.0% $3.82 | $15.50 +262.9% | $5.51 +29.0% | 60.0% | +65.9% | $4.27 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.45 Sheet Lightning 20.0% $5.33 Glockingbird 20.0% $3.82 | $15.50 +170.5% | $7.39 +28.9% | 40.0% | +72.7% | $5.73 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.50 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.44 Sheet Lightning 15.0% $5.33 Glockingbird 15.0% $3.86 | $15.50 +148.0% | $7.85 +25.6% | 46.7% | +69.0% | $6.25 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.50 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.45 Sheet Lightning 10.0% $5.28 Glockingbird 10.0% $3.82 | $15.50 +130.3% | $8.32 +23.6% | 53.3% | +65.6% | $6.73 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.45 Sheet Lightning 5.0% $5.33 Glockingbird 5.0% $3.82 | $15.50 +114.1% | $8.79 +21.4% | 30.0% | +61.5% | $7.24 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 3.3% $15.50 Glitched Paint 3.3% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $5.45 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $5.28 Glockingbird 45.0% $3.81 | $15.50 +272.5% | $5.02 +20.6% | 55.0% | +50.8% | $4.16 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen  8.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze  8.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom  10.0% $1.23 Red Tide 10.0% $1.05 Arsenic Spill  10.0% $0.98 Blush Pour 10.0% $0.95 | $4.61 +418.0% | $1.20 +34.6% | 56.0% | +111.0% | $0.89 | — |