The Boreal Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Copperflage
2x $0.64
Poplar Thicket
5x $0.97
Blush Pour
1x $1.53
Shredded
2x $1.84
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
10.0% $32.23
Sheet Lightning
35.0% $16.97
Glitched Paint
10.0% $16.71
Bleeding Edge
10.0% $15.06
Glockingbird
35.0% $11.77
Max Win
$32.23 (+59.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$16.46 (-18.7%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+28.3%
Cost
$20.25
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $20.25
Ask Price EV $16.46 (-18.7%)
Bid Price EV $16.27 (-19.7%)
Ask Profit $-3.79 (-18.7%)
Bid Profit $-3.98 (-19.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.19 (+1.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.79
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.98
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $32.23 (+59.2%)
Worst Case $11.77 (-41.9%)
Volatility +28.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 45.0%
Avg Win +$11.98
Avg Loss -$5.54
Bottom 5% Outcome $11.77 (-41.9%)
Std Dev $5.73
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 1h 42m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.64 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.97 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Factory New
$1.29 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.55 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$3.68 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.84 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$3.35 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 19M 35S //TOTAL COST $20.25 //ASK PRICE EV $16.46 //BID PRICE EV $16.27 //ASK PROFIT $-3.79 (-18.7%) //BID PROFIT $-3.98 (-19.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $32.23 //VOLATILITY +28.3% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$32.23
+$11.98
+59.2%
$31.18
+$10.93
+54.0%
$1.05
3.3%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$16.97
-$3.28
-16.2%
$16.88
-$3.37
-16.6%
$0.09
0.5%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$16.71
-$3.54
-17.5%
$16.69
-$3.56
-17.6%
$0.02
0.1%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$15.06
-$5.19
-25.6%
$14.75
-$5.50
-27.2%
$0.31
2.0%
—
NUKE
35.0%
$11.77
-$8.48
-41.9%
$11.70
-$8.55
-42.2%
$0.07
0.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.046839700000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 11.772,
"optimistic_value": 11.73,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 11.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:37.745701Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.0524325,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 16.97,
"optimistic_value": 16.9,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 16.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:59:37.615372Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0524325,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 32.231500000000004,
"optimistic_value": 31.92,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:29.613242Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.046839700000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 16.707,
"optimistic_value": 16.7,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:06.118401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041946,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 15.0565,
"optimistic_value": 14.99,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 14.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:40.190500Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f31c25ff03e9e8c03e4850dc",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.64,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "492724643507492625",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:41.415338Z"
},
{
"price": 0.97,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "516368322946009778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:18:12.522339Z"
},
{
"price": 1.29,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "524249840859649611",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:03.529330Z"
},
{
"price": 1.55,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "518620288314275428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:52.059171Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "659356415310796570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:52.059171Z"
},
{
"price": 3.22,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "512990623223766251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:52.059171Z"
},
{
"price": 3.68,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "517493591330950090",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:52.059171Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:33.326714Z"
},
{
"price": 1.84,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "511864941882786657",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:45.271873Z"
},
{
"price": 3.35,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "524249840859892755",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:45.271873Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.45 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.28 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.82 | $15.50 +236.9% | $5.96 +29.6% | 65.0% | +72.0% | $4.60 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 10.0% $32.23 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $16.97 Glitched Paint 10.0% $16.71 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $15.06 Glockingbird 35.0% $11.77 | $32.23 +120.0% | $16.46 +12.3% | 65.0% | +39.1% | $14.65 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.50 Glitched Paint 13.3% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.45 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.28 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.82 | $15.50 +214.4% | $6.43 +30.5% | 70.0% | +74.7% | $4.93 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.50 Glitched Paint 6.7% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.45 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $5.33 Glockingbird 40.0% $3.82 | $15.50 +262.9% | $5.51 +29.0% | 60.0% | +65.9% | $4.27 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.45 Sheet Lightning 20.0% $5.33 Glockingbird 20.0% $3.82 | $15.50 +170.5% | $7.39 +28.9% | 40.0% | +72.7% | $5.73 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.50 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.44 Sheet Lightning 15.0% $5.33 Glockingbird 15.0% $3.86 | $15.50 +148.0% | $7.85 +25.6% | 46.7% | +69.0% | $6.25 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.50 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.45 Sheet Lightning 10.0% $5.28 Glockingbird 10.0% $3.82 | $15.50 +130.3% | $8.32 +23.6% | 53.3% | +65.6% | $6.73 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.45 Sheet Lightning 5.0% $5.33 Glockingbird 5.0% $3.82 | $15.50 +114.1% | $8.79 +21.4% | 30.0% | +61.5% | $7.24 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 3.3% $15.50 Glitched Paint 3.3% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $5.45 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $5.28 Glockingbird 45.0% $3.81 | $15.50 +272.5% | $5.02 +20.6% | 55.0% | +50.8% | $4.16 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen  8.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze  8.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom  10.0% $1.23 Red Tide  10.0% $1.05 Arsenic Spill  10.0% $0.98 Blush Pour 10.0% $0.95 | $4.61 +418.0% | $1.20 +34.6% | 56.0% | +111.0% | $0.89 | — |