The Boreal Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Gold Leaf
3x $0.19
Copperflage
2x $0.43
Poplar Thicket
2x $0.50
Shredded
1x $0.37
Red Tide
1x $0.38
Blush Pour
1x $0.95
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
10.0% $15.50
Glitched Paint
10.0% $6.78
Bleeding Edge
10.0% $5.40
Sheet Lightning
35.0% $5.30
Glockingbird
35.0% $3.82
Max Win
$15.50 (+227.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.96 (+26.0%)
Win %
65.0%
Volatility
+69.9%
Cost
$4.73
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.73
Ask Price EV $5.96 (+26.0%)
Bid Price EV $5.52 (+16.7%)
Ask Profit $1.23 (+26.0%)
Bid Profit $0.79 (+16.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.44 (+9.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.23
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.79
Risk
Win Probability 65.0%
Loss Probability 35.0%
Best Case $15.50 (+227.6%)
Worst Case $3.82 (-19.1%)
Volatility +69.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$2.38
Avg Loss -$0.91
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.82 (-19.1%)
Std Dev $3.31
Avg Norm Float 0.1981
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 40m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 18M 42S //TOTAL COST $4.73 //ASK PRICE EV $5.96 //BID PRICE EV $5.52 //ASK PROFIT $1.23 (+26.0%) //BID PROFIT $0.79 (+16.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 65.0% //BEST CASE $15.50 //VOLATILITY +69.9% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$15.50
+$10.77
+227.6%
$14.49
+$9.76
+206.3%
$1.01
6.5%
—
WIN
10.0%
$6.78
+$2.05
+43.4%
$6.18
+$1.45
+30.7%
$0.60
8.9%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$5.40
+$0.67
+14.2%
$5.20
+$0.47
+9.9%
$0.20
3.8%
—
SMALL WIN
35.0%
$5.30
+$0.57
+12.0%
$5.07
+$0.34
+7.2%
$0.23
4.3%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$3.82
-$0.91
-19.1%
$3.31
-$1.42
-30.0%
$0.51
13.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.13269350000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 3.8245,
"optimistic_value": 3.8,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 3.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:15:50.967947Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.1485375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 5.296,
"optimistic_value": 5.24,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 5.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:10:02.082611Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1485375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.4975,
"optimistic_value": 15.27,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:30.576620Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.13269350000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 6.784000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 6.7,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:38.749637Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.11882999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.403,
"optimistic_value": 5.34,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:34.717497Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f31c25ff03e9e8c03e4850dc",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "514116523133772618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:13:50.085790Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "521998040963188914",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:10:18.872120Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "528753440605141785",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:10:18.872120Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "512990789045074739",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:34.042957Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "493850543432786188",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:02:04.345812Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "520872141037740540",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:34.042957Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "509613089305639647",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:02:04.345812Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "511864941882372873",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:34.901463Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "491598743581017674",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:42.036045Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "517494441498753898",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:29.367068Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 10.0% $32.23 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $16.97 Glitched Paint 10.0% $16.71 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $15.33 Glockingbird 35.0% $11.89 | $32.23 +122.1% | $16.53 +13.9% | 65.0% | +39.2% | $14.51 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.50 Glitched Paint 16.7% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.44 Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.30 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.82 | $15.50 +191.9% | $6.90 +30.0% | 50.0% | +74.6% | $5.31 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.41 Sheet Lightning 15.0% $5.33 Glockingbird 15.0% $3.85 | $15.94 +157.5% | $7.94 +28.3% | 46.7% | +72.7% | $6.19 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.50 Glitched Paint 13.3% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.40 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.30 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.82 | $15.50 +204.5% | $6.43 +26.3% | 70.0% | +72.3% | $5.09 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.50 Glitched Paint 6.7% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.40 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $5.30 Glockingbird 40.0% $3.82 | $15.50 +252.2% | $5.49 +24.9% | 60.0% | +63.9% | $4.40 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.40 Sheet Lightning 20.0% $5.30 Glockingbird 20.0% $3.82 | $15.50 +162.7% | $7.36 +24.8% | 40.0% | +70.8% | $5.90 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 3.3% $15.50 Glitched Paint 3.3% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $5.44 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $5.33 Glockingbird 45.0% $3.82 | $15.50 +272.5% | $5.04 +21.2% | 55.0% | +50.7% | $4.16 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.50 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.40 Sheet Lightning 10.0% $5.30 Glockingbird 10.0% $3.82 | $15.50 +125.6% | $8.29 +20.7% | 26.7% | +64.4% | $6.87 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.78 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.40 Sheet Lightning 5.0% $5.30 Glockingbird 5.0% $3.82 | $15.50 +105.8% | $8.76 +16.4% | 30.0% | +59.4% | $7.53 | — |