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The Boreal Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Battle-Scarred +10.1%Factory New -17.9%Field-Tested +27.0%Minimal Wear +13.0%Well-Worn -18.1%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Poplar Thicket
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
4x $0.13
Gold Leaf
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
2x $0.18
Copperflage
XM1014 | Copperflage
1x $0.39
Shredded
MP9 | Shredded
1x $0.25
Red Tide
P250 | Red Tide
1x $0.27
Blush Pour
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
1x $0.31
↓
Possible Outputs
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
10.0% $4.82
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
10.0% $4.43
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
10.0% $2.19
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
35.0% $2.03
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
35.0% $1.62
Max Win
$4.82 (+119.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.42 (+10.1%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+51.1%
Cost
$2.20
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGE
Total Cost $2.20
Ask Price EV $2.42 (+10.1%)
Bid Price EV $2.11 (-4.1%)
Ask Profit $0.22 (+10.1%)
Bid Profit $-0.09 (-4.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.31 (+14.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.22
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.09
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $4.82 (+119.2%)
Worst Case $1.62 (-26.2%)
Volatility +51.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 35.0%
Avg Win +$2.43
Avg Loss -$0.33
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.62 (-26.2%)
Std Dev $1.12
Avg Norm Float 0.5915
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 156h 7m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Battle-Scarred
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Battle-Scarred
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Battle-Scarred
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Battle-Scarred
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 11M 26S //TOTAL COST $2.20 //ASK PRICE EV $2.42 //BID PRICE EV $2.11 //ASK PROFIT $0.22 (+10.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.09 (-4.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $4.82 //VOLATILITY +51.1% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.3963318,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
      "realistic_value": 1.6235,
      "optimistic_value": 1.62,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
      "conservative_value": 1.4,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T06:17:23.349497Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.44365499999999997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
      "realistic_value": 2.027,
      "optimistic_value": 2.02,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
      "conservative_value": 1.7,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:09:46.601021Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.44365499999999997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
      "realistic_value": 4.4345,
      "optimistic_value": 4.41,
      "output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
      "conservative_value": 3.88,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:24.676309Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.3963318,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
      "realistic_value": 4.8235,
      "optimistic_value": 4.75,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
      "conservative_value": 4.46,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:18.991486Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.35492399999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
      "realistic_value": 2.1935000000000002,
      "optimistic_value": 2.19,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
      "conservative_value": 1.9,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:37.423783Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_f31c25ff03e9e8c03e4850dc",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.13,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "521998040963537538",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:51.246007Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.15,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "493850543433082972",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:51.246007Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.16,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "502857742727571724",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:51.246007Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.17,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "515241791647875565",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:51.246007Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
      "listing_id": "519746241189414356",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:56:06.020672Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
      "listing_id": "514116523133772618",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:56:06.020672Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.39,
      "skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
      "listing_id": "505109542380985544",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:38.185173Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.25,
      "skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
      "listing_id": "516368541589681082",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MP9 | Shredded",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:42.216720Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
      "listing_id": "527627540537868440",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P250 | Red Tide",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:24.139456Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
      "listing_id": "499480042829168605",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:11:07.607433Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:3"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Boreal Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
10.0% $15.50
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
10.0% $6.64
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
35.0% $5.48
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
10.0% $5.42
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
35.0% $3.55
$15.50
+232.6%
$5.92
+27.0%
65.0%+72.1%$4.66—
The Boreal Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
10.0% $32.23
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
35.0% $16.97
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
10.0% $16.71
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
10.0% $15.06
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
35.0% $11.79
$32.23
+121.2%
$16.46
+13.0%
65.0%+39.3%$14.57—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Boreal Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
13.3% $15.50
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
13.3% $6.64
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
30.0% $5.48
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
13.3% $5.42
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
30.0% $3.55
$15.50
+211.8%
$6.38
+28.4%
70.0%+74.9%$4.97—
The Boreal Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
20.0% $15.50
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
20.0% $6.64
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
20.0% $5.48
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
20.0% $5.42
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
20.0% $3.70
$15.50
+167.2%
$7.35
+26.7%
40.0%+72.1%$5.80—
The Boreal Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
23.3% $15.50
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
23.3% $6.63
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
23.3% $5.41
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
15.0% $5.34
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
15.0% $3.81
$15.50
+148.8%
$7.80
+25.2%
46.7%+69.6%$6.23—
The Boreal Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
6.7% $15.50
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
6.7% $6.63
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
6.7% $5.41
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
40.0% $5.34
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
40.0% $3.70
$15.50
+253.0%
$5.45
+24.2%
60.0%+64.6%$4.39—
The Boreal Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
26.7% $15.50
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
26.7% $6.64
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
10.0% $5.48
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
26.7% $5.42
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
10.0% $3.55
$15.50
+130.6%
$8.25
+22.8%
26.7%+66.2%$6.72—
The Boreal Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
30.0% $15.50
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
30.0% $6.64
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
30.0% $5.42
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
5.0% $5.34
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
5.0% $3.70
$15.50
+114.1%
$8.72
+20.4%
30.0%+62.0%$7.24—
The Boreal Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Mulberry
Desert Eagle | Mulberry
3.3% $15.50
Glitched Paint
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint
3.3% $6.64
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
45.0% $5.48
Bleeding Edge
USP-S | Bleeding Edge
3.3% $5.42
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
45.0% $3.55
$15.50
+266.4%
$4.98
+17.8%
55.0%+51.9%$4.23—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Boreal Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Wintergreen
AK-47 | Wintergreen
8.0% $4.61
Tropical Breeze
USP-S | Tropical Breeze
8.0% $1.82
Coral Bloom
Glock-18 | Coral Bloom
10.0% $1.24
Red Tide
P250 | Red Tide
10.0% $1.05
Arsenic Spill
AWP | Arsenic Spill
10.0% $0.98
Blush Pour
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
10.0% $0.96
$4.61
+418.0%
$1.20
+34.8%
56.0%+110.9%$0.89—
FS

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