The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma 2 Collection ×1
Restricted → Classified FN ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Urban Sovereign
8x $4.72
Galigator
1x $9.00
Heat
1x $5.90
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
30.0% $290.04
Eco
3.3% $203.43
Kintsugi
30.0% $65.51
Djinn
3.3% $64.25
Deathgaze
30.0% $61.47
Monkey Business
3.3% $18.89
Max Win
$290.04 (+182.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$134.66 (+31.1%)
Win %
33.3%
Volatility
+102.3%
Cost
$102.73
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $102.73
Ask Price EV $134.66 (+31.1%)
Bid Price EV $110.38 (+7.4%)
Ask Profit $31.93 (+31.1%)
Bid Profit $7.65 (+7.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $24.28 (+23.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$31.93
Bid Slippage Buffer +$7.65
Risk
Win Probability 33.3%
Loss Probability 66.7%
Best Case $290.04 (+182.3%)
Worst Case $18.89 (-81.6%)
Volatility +102.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 66.7%
Avg Win +$178.65
Avg Loss -$41.44
Bottom 5% Outcome $61.47 (-40.2%)
Std Dev $105.14
Avg Norm Float 0.0666
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 2m
Oldest Output Price 142h 37m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.75 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$7.53 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$9.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.50 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$16.99 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$17.66 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Heat
—
Minimal Wear
$5.90 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 11M 51S //TOTAL COST $102.73 //ASK PRICE EV $134.66 //BID PRICE EV $110.38 //ASK PROFIT $31.93 (+31.1%) //BID PROFIT $7.65 (+7.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 33.3% //BEST CASE $290.04 //VOLATILITY +102.3% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$290.04
+$187.31
+182.3%
$229.11
+$126.38
+123.0%
$60.93
21.0%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
3.3%
$203.43
+$100.70
+98.0%
$181.85
+$79.12
+77.0%
$21.58
10.6%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$65.51
-$37.22
-36.2%
$55.11
-$47.62
-46.4%
$10.40
15.9%
—
LOSS
3.3%
$64.25
-$38.48
-37.5%
$55.68
-$47.05
-45.8%
$8.57
13.3%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$61.47
-$41.26
-40.2%
$55.38
-$47.35
-46.1%
$6.09
9.9%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$18.89
-$83.84
-81.6%
$17.45
-$85.28
-83.0%
$1.44
7.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-7|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-7"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06659,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 290.0445,
"optimistic_value": 279.45,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 229.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:40.031809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06659,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 65.5065,
"optimistic_value": 64.74,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 55.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:31:37.335337Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06659,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 61.465999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 59.66,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 55.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:31:44.183758Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06659,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4fa9c490db80",
"realistic_value": 64.24849999999999,
"optimistic_value": 64,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Djinn",
"conservative_value": 55.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-7",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Djinn (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:28.189413Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4fa9c490db80.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.15327200000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b2a5203033ee",
"realistic_value": 18.894,
"optimistic_value": 18.25,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Monkey Business",
"conservative_value": 17.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-7",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:44:14.186939Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b2a5203033ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1499425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5224ccf55371",
"realistic_value": 203.4315,
"optimistic_value": 194.51,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Eco",
"conservative_value": 181.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-7",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Eco (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:53.315280Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5224ccf55371.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ee8a12f62246083526b6655e",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 4.72,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605889840023871",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:31.788881Z"
},
{
"price": 4.75,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "521997988014719718",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:31.788881Z"
},
{
"price": 5.38,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605837398261191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:31.788881Z"
},
{
"price": 7.53,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "514116636505408218",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:31.788881Z"
},
{
"price": 9,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "496102237883506139",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:29.954532Z"
},
{
"price": 15.3,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "518619491430346084",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:34.463324Z"
},
{
"price": 15.5,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "496101493270757831",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:34.463324Z"
},
{
"price": 16.99,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "523123091079375442",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:34.463324Z"
},
{
"price": 17.66,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506234592361187964",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:34.463324Z"
},
{
"price": 5.9,
"skin_id": "skin-fadb57cf0d51",
"listing_id": "494976390476742846",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-7",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Heat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fadb57cf0d51.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:51.126253Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-37:9+collection-set-community-7:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma 2 Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $63.86 Eco 3.3% $23.04 Djinn 3.3% $18.92 Monkey Business 3.3% $17.62 Kintsugi 30.0% $12.65 Deathgaze 30.0% $11.91 | $63.86 +155.9% | $28.51 +14.3% | 30.0% | +93.2% | $24.95 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma 2 Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $126.41 Eco 3.3% $30.82 Djinn 3.3% $25.56 Kintsugi 30.0% $23.12 Deathgaze 30.0% $21.23 Monkey Business 3.3% $18.89 | $126.41 +162.8% | $53.74 +11.7% | 30.0% | +99.0% | $48.11 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Chroma 2 Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Eco 6.7% $203.43 Kintsugi 26.7% $65.51 Djinn 6.7% $64.25 Deathgaze 26.7% $61.47 Monkey Business 6.7% $18.89 | $290.04 +186.6% | $130.31 +28.8% | 33.3% | +102.0% | $101.20 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Chroma 2 Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Eco 10.0% $203.43 Monkey Business 10.0% $104.94 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Djinn 10.0% $64.25 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 | $290.04 +175.1% | $134.57 +27.6% | 33.3% | +90.3% | $105.44 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Chroma 2 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Eco 13.3% $203.43 Monkey Business 13.3% $104.94 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Djinn 13.3% $64.25 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 | $290.04 +173.3% | $133.09 +25.4% | 33.3% | +85.7% | $106.12 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Chroma 2 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $290.04 Eco 16.7% $203.43 Monkey Business 16.7% $104.94 Kintsugi 16.7% $65.51 Djinn 16.7% $64.25 Deathgaze 16.7% $61.47 | $290.04 +165.9% | $131.61 +20.6% | 33.3% | +79.2% | $109.09 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Chroma 2 Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $290.04 Eco 20.0% $203.43 Monkey Business 20.0% $104.94 Kintsugi 13.3% $65.51 Djinn 20.0% $64.25 Deathgaze 13.3% $61.47 | $290.04 +149.9% | $130.13 +12.1% | 33.3% | +70.3% | $116.07 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Chroma 2 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing  16.0% $31.66 Heat 5.0% $26.99 Amberline  16.0% $18.87 Worm God  5.0% $14.95 Galigator 16.0% $14.51 | $51.27 +155.0% | $23.55 +17.1% | 37.0% | +61.8% | $20.11 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Chroma 2 Collection ×1 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Hyper Beast  5.0% $879.07 Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 Neon Rider  5.0% $207.45 | $879.07 +63.1% | $652.09 +21.0% | 50.0% | +37.8% | $539.04 | — |