The Gamma Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified MW ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Limelight
2x $3.22
Amberline
4x $3.52
Urban Sovereign
4x $3.64
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
26.7% $126.41
Desolate Space
6.7% $71.39
Bloodsport
6.7% $53.46
Imperial Dragon
6.7% $28.30
Kintsugi
26.7% $23.08
Deathgaze
26.7% $21.31
Max Win
$126.41 (+154.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$55.76 (+12.4%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+90.2%
Cost
$49.59
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $49.59
Ask Price EV $55.76 (+12.4%)
Bid Price EV $48.40 (-2.4%)
Ask Profit $6.17 (+12.4%)
Bid Profit $-1.19 (-2.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $7.36 (+14.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$6.17
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.19
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $126.41 (+154.9%)
Worst Case $21.31 (-57.0%)
Volatility +90.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$55.49
Avg Loss -$26.71
Bottom 5% Outcome $21.31 (-57.0%)
Std Dev $44.71
Avg Norm Float 0.1487
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 145h 39m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Limelight
—
Field-Tested
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Limelight
—
Minimal Wear
$4.10 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$3.52 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.64 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$4.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.41 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$7.53 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 31M 00S //TOTAL COST $49.59 //ASK PRICE EV $55.76 //BID PRICE EV $48.40 //ASK PROFIT $6.17 (+12.4%) //BID PROFIT $-1.19 (-2.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $126.41 //VOLATILITY +90.2% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
26.7%
$126.41
+$76.82
+154.9%
$112.39
+$62.80
+126.6%
$14.02
11.1%
—
WIN
6.7%
$71.39
+$21.80
+44.0%
$58.82
+$9.23
+18.6%
$12.57
17.6%
—
PAPER WIN THIN BID
6.7%
$53.46
+$3.87
+7.8%
$32.29
-$17.30
-34.9%
$21.17
39.6%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$28.30
-$21.29
-42.9%
$25.12
-$24.47
-49.3%
$3.18
11.3%
—
NUKE
26.7%
$23.08
-$26.51
-53.5%
$20.66
-$28.93
-58.3%
$2.42
10.5%
—
NUKE
26.7%
$21.31
-$28.28
-57.0%
$19.38
-$30.21
-60.9%
$1.93
9.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-13|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.14865,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 126.41149999999999,
"optimistic_value": 124,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 112.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.452841Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.14865,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 23.082,
"optimistic_value": 22.9,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 20.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:52.783024Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.14865,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 21.3125,
"optimistic_value": 20.56,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 19.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:57.136134Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.14865,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ca4eb6f53d0e",
"realistic_value": 71.393,
"optimistic_value": 70.63,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Desolate Space",
"conservative_value": 58.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:22:38.223805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4eb6f53d0e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.0936495,
"output_skin_id": "skin-76967e1c919f",
"realistic_value": 28.304499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.88,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Imperial Dragon",
"conservative_value": 25.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:43.450928Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-76967e1c919f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.06689250000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9a2cefa49e12",
"realistic_value": 53.459,
"optimistic_value": 49.28,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Bloodsport",
"conservative_value": 32.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T19:59:16.670308Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a2cefa49e12.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_e8e748376caaf56915a3939a",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 3.22,
"skin_id": "skin-33872c48a8e5",
"listing_id": "490471993859566059",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Limelight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33872c48a8e5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:52:52.991647Z"
},
{
"price": 4.1,
"skin_id": "skin-33872c48a8e5",
"listing_id": "526501587737041901",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Limelight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33872c48a8e5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:52:52.339769Z"
},
{
"price": 3.52,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "497228024527485521",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:05.598022Z"
},
{
"price": 3.64,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "498354037510570279",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:51.873215Z"
},
{
"price": 4.67,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "508487023588144070",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:05.598022Z"
},
{
"price": 4.72,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "501731789730735413",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:56.729750Z"
},
{
"price": 5.38,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605837398261191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:56.729750Z"
},
{
"price": 6.4,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "519746188259003948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:13.519522Z"
},
{
"price": 6.41,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "528753387757823085",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:13.519522Z"
},
{
"price": 7.53,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "514116636505408218",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:56.729750Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-13:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Desolate Space 6.7% $180.75 Kintsugi 26.7% $64.80 Deathgaze 26.7% $58.69 Imperial Dragon 6.7% $58.29 Bloodsport 6.7% $53.46 | $290.04 +191.0% | $129.78 +30.2% | 33.3% | +101.5% | $99.66 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $63.86 Desolate Space 6.7% $46.08 Bloodsport 6.7% $16.81 Imperial Dragon 6.7% $15.78 Kintsugi 26.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 26.7% $11.72 | $63.86 +156.5% | $28.77 +15.5% | 33.3% | +91.2% | $24.90 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $290.04 Desolate Space 3.3% $180.75 Kintsugi 30.0% $64.80 Deathgaze 30.0% $60.53 Imperial Dragon 3.3% $58.29 Bloodsport 3.3% $53.46 | $290.04 +187.2% | $134.36 +33.0% | 33.3% | +103.1% | $100.99 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Desolate Space 10.0% $180.75 Kintsugi 23.3% $64.80 Deathgaze 23.3% $60.53 Imperial Dragon 10.0% $58.29 Bloodsport 10.0% $53.46 | $290.04 +190.7% | $126.17 +26.5% | 33.3% | +97.4% | $99.76 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Desolate Space 13.3% $180.75 Kintsugi 20.0% $64.80 Deathgaze 20.0% $60.53 Imperial Dragon 13.3% $58.29 Bloodsport 13.3% $53.46 | $290.04 +190.3% | $122.08 +22.2% | 33.3% | +93.3% | $99.92 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $290.04 Desolate Space 16.7% $180.75 Kintsugi 16.7% $64.80 Deathgaze 16.7% $58.69 Imperial Dragon 16.7% $58.29 Bloodsport 16.7% $53.46 | $290.04 +184.2% | $117.67 +15.3% | 33.3% | +87.3% | $102.07 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $290.04 Desolate Space 20.0% $180.75 Kintsugi 13.3% $64.80 Deathgaze 13.3% $60.53 Imperial Dragon 20.0% $58.29 Bloodsport 20.0% $53.46 | $290.04 +182.3% | $113.88 +10.9% | 33.3% | +81.9% | $102.73 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  18.0% $51.27 Reboot  2.0% $31.83 Firebreathing  18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Aristocrat  2.0% $15.36 Limelight 2.0% $14.68 | $51.27 +153.6% | $25.15 +24.4% | 38.0% | +59.1% | $20.22 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Wasteland Rebel  10.0% $191.80 Mecha Industries  10.0% $153.85 Queen's Gambit  40.0% $141.08 Fully Tuned  40.0% $105.54 | $191.80 +77.3% | $133.21 +23.2% | 60.0% | +24.8% | $108.15 | — |