The Gamma Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified FN ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Limelight
1x $5.10
Chopper
1x $10.35
Urban Sovereign
7x $4.75
Galigator
1x $9.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
26.7% $290.04
Desolate Space
6.7% $180.75
Kintsugi
26.7% $64.80
Deathgaze
26.7% $61.47
Imperial Dragon
6.7% $58.29
Bloodsport
6.7% $53.46
Max Win
$290.04 (+195.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$130.52 (+32.9%)
Win %
33.3%
Volatility
+102.5%
Cost
$98.18
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $98.18
Ask Price EV $130.52 (+32.9%)
Bid Price EV $105.66 (+7.6%)
Ask Profit $32.34 (+32.9%)
Bid Profit $7.48 (+7.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $24.86 (+25.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$32.34
Bid Slippage Buffer +$7.48
Risk
Win Probability 33.3%
Loss Probability 66.7%
Best Case $290.04 (+195.4%)
Worst Case $53.46 (-45.6%)
Volatility +102.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 66.7%
Avg Win +$170.01
Avg Loss -$36.50
Bottom 5% Outcome $53.46 (-45.6%)
Std Dev $100.60
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 144h 39m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Limelight
—
Minimal Wear
$5.10 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Chopper
—
Factory New
$10.35 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.75 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.90 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$7.53 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$9.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.50 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$16.99 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$17.66 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 39M 08S //TOTAL COST $98.18 //ASK PRICE EV $130.52 //BID PRICE EV $105.66 //ASK PROFIT $32.34 (+32.9%) //BID PROFIT $7.48 (+7.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 33.3% //BEST CASE $290.04 //VOLATILITY +102.5% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$290.04
+$191.86
+195.4%
$229.11
+$130.93
+133.4%
$60.93
21.0%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$180.75
+$82.57
+84.1%
$144.98
+$46.80
+47.7%
$35.77
19.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$64.80
-$33.38
-34.0%
$55.11
-$43.07
-43.9%
$9.69
15.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$61.47
-$36.71
-37.4%
$55.38
-$42.80
-43.6%
$6.09
9.9%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$58.29
-$39.89
-40.6%
$49.19
-$48.99
-49.9%
$9.10
15.6%
—
NUKE THIN BID
6.7%
$53.46
-$44.72
-45.6%
$32.29
-$65.89
-67.1%
$21.17
39.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-13|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 290.0445,
"optimistic_value": 279.45,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 229.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:40.031809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 64.802,
"optimistic_value": 64.2,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 55.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:25.824993Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 61.465999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 59.66,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 55.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:36:18.187367Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.06976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ca4eb6f53d0e",
"realistic_value": 180.75,
"optimistic_value": 167.87,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Desolate Space",
"conservative_value": 144.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:22:26.450747Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4eb6f53d0e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.0439488,
"output_skin_id": "skin-76967e1c919f",
"realistic_value": 58.2935,
"optimistic_value": 57.59,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Imperial Dragon",
"conservative_value": 49.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:36:17.954421Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-76967e1c919f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.031392,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9a2cefa49e12",
"realistic_value": 53.459,
"optimistic_value": 49.28,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Bloodsport",
"conservative_value": 32.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T19:59:16.670308Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a2cefa49e12.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_e8e748376caaf56915a3939a",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 5.1,
"skin_id": "skin-33872c48a8e5",
"listing_id": "520871291130131160",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Limelight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33872c48a8e5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:43:13.582260Z"
},
{
"price": 10.35,
"skin_id": "skin-31a18fdabe59",
"listing_id": "501730992864064433",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Chopper",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-31a18fdabe59.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:21.331652Z"
},
{
"price": 4.75,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "521997988014719718",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:32.394071Z"
},
{
"price": 5.4,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506235337025176368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:32.394071Z"
},
{
"price": 5.9,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "490472790737683059",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:32.394071Z"
},
{
"price": 7.53,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "514116636505408218",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:32.394071Z"
},
{
"price": 9,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "496102237883506139",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:31.203536Z"
},
{
"price": 15.5,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "496101493270757831",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:37.432665Z"
},
{
"price": 16.99,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "523123091079375442",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:37.432665Z"
},
{
"price": 17.66,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506234592361187964",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:37.432665Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-13:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $126.41 Desolate Space 6.7% $71.39 Bloodsport 6.7% $53.46 Imperial Dragon 6.7% $28.30 Kintsugi 26.7% $23.08 Deathgaze 26.7% $21.75 | $126.41 +176.3% | $55.88 +22.1% | 40.0% | +97.5% | $45.75 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $63.86 Desolate Space 6.7% $46.08 Bloodsport 6.7% $16.81 Imperial Dragon 6.7% $15.84 Kintsugi 26.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 26.7% $11.72 | $63.86 +148.8% | $28.78 +12.1% | 33.3% | +88.5% | $25.67 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $290.04 Desolate Space 3.3% $180.75 Kintsugi 30.0% $64.80 Deathgaze 30.0% $61.47 Imperial Dragon 3.3% $58.29 Bloodsport 3.3% $53.46 | $290.04 +187.2% | $134.64 +33.3% | 33.3% | +102.9% | $100.99 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Desolate Space 10.0% $180.75 Kintsugi 23.3% $64.80 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 Imperial Dragon 10.0% $58.29 Bloodsport 10.0% $53.46 | $290.04 +188.6% | $126.39 +25.7% | 33.3% | +96.5% | $100.51 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Desolate Space 13.3% $180.75 Kintsugi 20.0% $64.80 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 Imperial Dragon 13.3% $58.29 Bloodsport 13.3% $53.46 | $290.04 +188.1% | $122.26 +21.5% | 33.3% | +92.5% | $100.66 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $290.04 Desolate Space 16.7% $180.75 Kintsugi 16.7% $64.80 Deathgaze 16.7% $61.47 Imperial Dragon 16.7% $58.29 Bloodsport 16.7% $53.46 | $290.04 +184.2% | $118.14 +15.7% | 33.3% | +87.0% | $102.07 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $290.04 Desolate Space 20.0% $180.75 Kintsugi 13.3% $64.80 Deathgaze 13.3% $61.47 Imperial Dragon 20.0% $58.29 Bloodsport 20.0% $53.46 | $290.04 +180.3% | $114.01 +10.2% | 33.3% | +81.3% | $103.47 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  18.0% $51.27 Reboot  2.0% $31.83 Firebreathing  18.0% $31.66 Amberline  18.0% $18.87 Aristocrat  2.0% $15.36 Limelight 2.0% $14.68 | $51.27 +148.8% | $25.14 +22.0% | 38.0% | +58.0% | $20.61 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Wasteland Rebel  5.0% $191.80 Mecha Industries  5.0% $153.85 Queen's Gambit  45.0% $141.08 Fully Tuned  45.0% $105.54 | $191.80 +79.9% | $128.26 +20.3% | 55.0% | +21.8% | $106.59 | — |