The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items

Battle-Scarred +21.7%Factory New +3.8%Field-Tested +11.8%Minimal Wear +18.2%Well-Worn +12.6%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn

Inputs

Teal Graf

2x $0.40

Pipsqueak

1x $0.43

Yeti Camo

2x $0.23

Cobalt Paisley

1x $0.34

Royal Baroque

2x $0.37

Reef Grief

1x $0.41

↓

Possible Outputs

Midnight Laminate

35.0% $6.93

Eye of Zapems

10.0% $4.33

Monster Melt

10.0% $4.09

Sweet Little Angels

10.0% $4.05

Royal Guard

35.0% $1.22

Max Win

$6.93 (+90.4%)

EV (ROI %)

$4.10 (+12.6%)

Win %

65.0%

Volatility

+65.7%

Cost

$3.64

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $3.64

Ask Price EV $4.10 (+12.6%)

Bid Price EV $3.53 (-3.0%)

Ask Profit $0.46 (+12.6%)

Bid Profit $-0.11 (-3.0%)

Liquidity Gap $0.57 (+15.5%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.46

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.11

Risk

Win Probability 65.0%

Loss Probability 35.0%

Best Case $6.93 (+90.4%)

Worst Case $1.22 (-66.6%)

Volatility +65.7%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 35.0%

Avg Win +$2.01

Avg Loss -$2.42

Bottom 5% Outcome $1.22 (-66.6%)

Std Dev $2.39

Avg Norm Float 0.4482

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 25m

Oldest Output Price 153h 22m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

—

Field-Tested

$0.40 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

—

Field-Tested

$0.41 Float: HIDDEN

MAC-10 | Pipsqueak

—

Field-Tested

$0.43 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.23 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.24 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Well-Worn

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Field-Tested

$0.37 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Field-Tested

$0.39 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Field-Tested

$0.41 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Field-Tested

$0.42 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 34M 32S //TOTAL COST $3.64 //ASK PRICE EV $4.10 //BID PRICE EV $3.53 //ASK PROFIT $0.46 (+12.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.11 (-3.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 65.0% //BEST CASE $6.93 //VOLATILITY +65.7% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.33615,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 6.931,
      "optimistic_value": 6.84,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 5.76,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.26892,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 1.2155,
      "optimistic_value": 1.17,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 1.07,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:24:47.554510Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.38097,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
      "realistic_value": 4.3335,
      "optimistic_value": 4.19,
      "output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
      "conservative_value": 3.48,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:19:07.725357Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.36752399999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
      "realistic_value": 4.0475,
      "optimistic_value": 4.03,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
      "conservative_value": 4,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:10.939677Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.33615,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
      "realistic_value": 4.085,
      "optimistic_value": 4.05,
      "output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
      "conservative_value": 3.94,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:13.401903Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_e0797d260080cda2c2e32953",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
      "listing_id": "503983589619426907",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:04.991034Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
      "listing_id": "491598638254867202",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:04.991034Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.43,
      "skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
      "listing_id": "503982792739302367",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:04:03.848394Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.23,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "520872141037862616",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:28.088990Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.24,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "492724643507505009",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:28.088990Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "493850490550033732",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:28.424494Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "496102343226352475",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:11:24.794372Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.39,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "509613142168149267",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:11:24.794372Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "511864941882265233",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:44.019953Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.42,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "509613142168155963",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:56.983177Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $4.33 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $3.91 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.22	$6.94 +107.3%	$4.08 +21.7%	65.0%	+71.6%	$3.35	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $27.45 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $25.66 Monster Melt 10.0% $20.06 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.38	$38.92 +79.5%	$25.62 +18.2%	55.0%	+50.1%	$21.68	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $10.29 Monster Melt 10.0% $8.45 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.56	$18.08 +80.6%	$11.20 +11.8%	55.0%	+53.4%	$10.01	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $27.45 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $25.66 Monster Melt 10.0% $20.06 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.38	$38.92 +57.7%	$25.62 +3.8%	55.0%	+44.0%	$24.68	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Monster Melt 3.3% $20.06 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.38 Eye of Zapems 3.3% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 3.3% $10.29	$38.92 +93.4%	$24.90 +23.7%	45.0%	+63.5%	$20.12	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $4.33 Monster Melt 13.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $3.91 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.20	$6.94 +107.9%	$4.07 +21.9%	70.0%	+66.7%	$3.34	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Eye of Zapems 6.7% $4.33 Monster Melt 6.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $3.91 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.20	$6.94 +106.7%	$4.07 +21.2%	60.0%	+76.5%	$3.36	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Eye of Zapems 26.7% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $10.29 Monster Melt 26.7% $8.45 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.56	$18.08 +108.7%	$10.15 +17.2%	63.3%	+35.0%	$8.66	—