The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items

Battle-Scarred +21.5%Factory New +3.3%Field-Tested +8.9%Minimal Wear +18.2%Well-Worn +8.1%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred

Inputs

Wurst Hölle

1x $0.31

Teal Graf

2x $0.40

Yeti Camo

3x $0.23

Cobalt Paisley

2x $0.32

Reef Grief

1x $0.37

Mint Fan

1x $0.42

↓

Possible Outputs

Midnight Laminate

35.0% $6.94

Eye of Zapems

10.0% $4.33

Monster Melt

10.0% $3.97

Sweet Little Angels

10.0% $3.91

Royal Guard

35.0% $1.23

Max Win

$6.94 (+106.7%)

EV (ROI %)

$4.08 (+21.5%)

Win %

65.0%

Volatility

+71.2%

Cost

$3.36

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $3.36

Ask Price EV $4.08 (+21.5%)

Bid Price EV $3.52 (+4.7%)

Ask Profit $0.72 (+21.5%)

Bid Profit $0.16 (+4.7%)

Liquidity Gap $0.57 (+16.8%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.72

Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.16

Risk

Win Probability 65.0%

Loss Probability 35.0%

Best Case $6.94 (+106.7%)

Worst Case $1.23 (-63.3%)

Volatility +71.2%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 35.0%

Avg Win +$2.26

Avg Loss -$2.13

Bottom 5% Outcome $1.23 (-63.3%)

Std Dev $2.39

Avg Norm Float 0.5233

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 19m

Oldest Output Price 152h 45m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Nova | Wurst Hölle

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.31 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

—

Field-Tested

$0.40 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

—

Field-Tested

$0.41 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.23 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.24 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Well-Worn

$0.32 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.32 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Well-Worn

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Field-Tested

$0.37 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Field-Tested

$0.42 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 46M 54S //TOTAL COST $3.36 //ASK PRICE EV $4.08 //BID PRICE EV $3.52 //ASK PROFIT $0.72 (+21.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.16 (+4.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 65.0% //BEST CASE $6.94 //VOLATILITY +71.2% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.39246,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 6.9435,
      "optimistic_value": 6.8,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 6.03,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:56:54.599031Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.31396799999999997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 1.2315,
      "optimistic_value": 1.2,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 1.08,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:33.648775Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.44478799999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
      "realistic_value": 4.3335,
      "optimistic_value": 4.19,
      "output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
      "conservative_value": 3.48,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:19:07.725357Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.42908959999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
      "realistic_value": 3.9145,
      "optimistic_value": 3.75,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
      "conservative_value": 3.33,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:29:34.452388Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.39246,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
      "realistic_value": 3.9675000000000002,
      "optimistic_value": 3.95,
      "output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
      "conservative_value": 3.48,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T14:41:55.011379Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_e0797d260080cda2c2e32953",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
      "listing_id": "526501640650943609",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:48.291192Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
      "listing_id": "503983589619426907",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:11.919788Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
      "listing_id": "491598638254867202",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:11.919788Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.23,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "520872141037862616",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:33.695059Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.24,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "492724643507505009",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:33.695059Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "518620341243236260",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:51.655768Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "492724538182088361",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:33.695059Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "493850490550033732",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:51.655768Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "501731842661762285",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:31.881912Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.42,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "509613142168155963",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:58.897882Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $26.89 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $25.66 Monster Melt 10.0% $20.38 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.48	$38.92 +79.5%	$25.63 +18.2%	55.0%	+49.8%	$21.68	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $10.29 Monster Melt 10.0% $8.45 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.47	$18.08 +76.4%	$11.16 +8.9%	55.0%	+52.5%	$10.25	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $4.33 Monster Melt 10.0% $4.09 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $4.07 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.23	$6.93 +82.4%	$4.11 +8.1%	65.0%	+62.8%	$3.80	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $26.89 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $25.66 Monster Melt 10.0% $20.38 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.48	$38.92 +56.8%	$25.63 +3.3%	55.0%	+43.5%	$24.82	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Monster Melt 3.3% $20.18 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.46 Eye of Zapems 3.3% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 3.3% $10.29	$38.92 +95.2%	$24.94 +25.1%	48.3%	+63.9%	$19.94	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $4.33 Monster Melt 13.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $3.91 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.23	$6.94 +108.5%	$4.08 +22.5%	70.0%	+66.6%	$3.33	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Eye of Zapems 6.7% $4.33 Monster Melt 6.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $3.91 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.23	$6.94 +107.3%	$4.08 +21.9%	60.0%	+76.3%	$3.35	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Eye of Zapems 30.0% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 30.0% $10.29 Monster Melt 30.0% $8.45 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.47	$18.08 +112.7%	$9.94 +16.9%	65.0%	+26.6%	$8.50	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Eye of Zapems 26.7% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $10.29 Monster Melt 26.7% $8.45 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.47	$18.08 +108.3%	$10.14 +16.9%	63.3%	+35.1%	$8.68	—