The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items

Battle-Scarred +21.7%Factory New +3.8%Field-Tested +11.8%Minimal Wear +18.2%Well-Worn +12.6%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested

Inputs

Wurst Hölle

1x $0.51

Pipsqueak

1x $0.86

Teal Graf

1x $0.87

Cobalt Paisley

2x $0.54

Mint Fan

2x $1.03

Reef Grief

3x $1.10

↓

Possible Outputs

Midnight Laminate

35.0% $18.08

Eye of Zapems

10.0% $10.47

Sweet Little Angels

10.0% $10.29

Monster Melt

10.0% $8.45

Royal Guard

35.0% $5.56

Max Win

$18.08 (+80.6%)

EV (ROI %)

$11.20 (+11.8%)

Win %

55.0%

Volatility

+53.4%

Cost

$10.01

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $10.01

Ask Price EV $11.20 (+11.8%)

Bid Price EV $10.00 (-0.0%)

Ask Profit $1.19 (+11.8%)

Bid Profit $-0.01 (-0.0%)

Liquidity Gap $1.19 (+11.9%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.19

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.01

Risk

Win Probability 55.0%

Loss Probability 45.0%

Best Case $18.08 (+80.6%)

Worst Case $5.56 (-44.4%)

Volatility +53.4%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 35.0%

Avg Win +$5.27

Avg Loss -$3.80

Bottom 5% Outcome $5.56 (-44.4%)

Std Dev $5.34

Avg Norm Float 0.1764

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 25m

Oldest Output Price 152h 24m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Nova | Wurst Hölle

—

Field-Tested

$0.51 Float: HIDDEN

MAC-10 | Pipsqueak

—

Field-Tested

$0.86 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

—

Minimal Wear

$0.87 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Field-Tested

$0.54 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Minimal Wear

$1.03 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Minimal Wear

$1.10 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Minimal Wear

$1.23 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Minimal Wear

$1.24 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Minimal Wear

$1.31 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Minimal Wear

$1.32 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 34M 05S //TOTAL COST $10.01 //ASK PRICE EV $11.20 //BID PRICE EV $10.00 //ASK PROFIT $1.19 (+11.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.01 (-0.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 55.0% //BEST CASE $18.08 //VOLATILITY +53.4% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.13230750000000002,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 18.0765,
      "optimistic_value": 17.94,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 15.21,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:20.243302Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.10584600000000001,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 5.5645,
      "optimistic_value": 5.54,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 5.11,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:17:03.830819Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.1499485,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
      "realistic_value": 10.470500000000001,
      "optimistic_value": 10.46,
      "output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
      "conservative_value": 10.42,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:03.909355Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.1446562,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
      "realistic_value": 10.29,
      "optimistic_value": 10.29,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
      "conservative_value": 10.28,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:04.404177Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.13230750000000002,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
      "realistic_value": 8.4475,
      "optimistic_value": 8.29,
      "output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
      "conservative_value": 8.23,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:41.734282Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_e0797d260080cda2c2e32953",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.51,
      "skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
      "listing_id": "524249840858994195",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:10.986354Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.86,
      "skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
      "listing_id": "518619491421941344",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:04:03.848394Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.87,
      "skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
      "listing_id": "516368488726379318",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:22:32.675295Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.54,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "500605942755294155",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:16.733873Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.03,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "492724643507875341",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:00.207072Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.1,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "527627540538202052",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:20.885037Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.23,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "492724643507817453",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:00.207072Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.24,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "511864941881735421",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:49.746322Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "630083017718303094",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:20.885037Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "630083017713403458",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:20.885037Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $4.33 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $3.91 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.22	$6.94 +107.3%	$4.08 +21.7%	65.0%	+71.6%	$3.35	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $27.45 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $25.66 Monster Melt 10.0% $20.06 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.38	$38.92 +79.5%	$25.62 +18.2%	55.0%	+50.1%	$21.68	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $4.33 Monster Melt 10.0% $4.09 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $4.05 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.22	$6.93 +90.4%	$4.10 +12.6%	65.0%	+65.7%	$3.64	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $27.45 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $25.66 Monster Melt 10.0% $20.06 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.38	$38.92 +57.7%	$25.62 +3.8%	55.0%	+44.0%	$24.68	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Monster Melt 3.3% $20.06 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.38 Eye of Zapems 3.3% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 3.3% $10.29	$38.92 +93.4%	$24.90 +23.7%	45.0%	+63.5%	$20.12	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $4.33 Monster Melt 13.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $3.91 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.20	$6.94 +107.9%	$4.07 +21.9%	70.0%	+66.7%	$3.34	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Eye of Zapems 6.7% $4.33 Monster Melt 6.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $3.91 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.20	$6.94 +106.7%	$4.07 +21.2%	60.0%	+76.5%	$3.36	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Eye of Zapems 26.7% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $10.29 Monster Melt 26.7% $8.45 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.56	$18.08 +108.7%	$10.15 +17.2%	63.3%	+35.0%	$8.66	—