The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items

Battle-Scarred +21.7%Factory New +3.8%Field-Tested +11.8%Minimal Wear +18.2%Well-Worn +12.6%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear

Inputs

Wurst Hölle

3x $1.16

Reef Grief

4x $1.31

Royal Baroque

1x $1.44

Mint Fan

2x $3.31

↓

Possible Outputs

Midnight Laminate

35.0% $38.92

Eye of Zapems

10.0% $27.45

Sweet Little Angels

10.0% $25.66

Monster Melt

10.0% $20.06

Royal Guard

35.0% $13.38

Max Win

$38.92 (+79.5%)

EV (ROI %)

$25.62 (+18.2%)

Win %

55.0%

Volatility

+50.1%

Cost

$21.68

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $21.68

Ask Price EV $25.62 (+18.2%)

Bid Price EV $23.87 (+10.1%)

Ask Profit $3.94 (+18.2%)

Bid Profit $2.19 (+10.1%)

Liquidity Gap $1.75 (+8.1%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.94

Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.19

Risk

Win Probability 55.0%

Loss Probability 45.0%

Best Case $38.92 (+79.5%)

Worst Case $13.38 (-38.3%)

Volatility +50.1%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 35.0%

Avg Win +$12.75

Avg Loss -$6.82

Bottom 5% Outcome $13.38 (-38.3%)

Std Dev $10.85

Avg Norm Float 0.0823

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 25m

Oldest Output Price 105h 53m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Nova | Wurst Hölle

—

Minimal Wear

$1.16 Float: HIDDEN

Nova | Wurst Hölle

—

Minimal Wear

$1.17 Float: HIDDEN

Nova | Wurst Hölle

—

Minimal Wear

$1.49 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Minimal Wear

$1.31 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Minimal Wear

$1.44 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Factory New

$2.02 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Factory New

$2.04 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Factory New

$3.31 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Factory New

$3.71 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Factory New

$4.03 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 34M 32S //TOTAL COST $21.68 //ASK PRICE EV $25.62 //BID PRICE EV $23.87 //ASK PROFIT $3.94 (+18.2%) //BID PROFIT $2.19 (+10.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 55.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +50.1% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.06174,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
      "optimistic_value": 38.81,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 34.38,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.049392,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 13.378499999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 13.27,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 13.24,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:23.162668Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.069972,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
      "realistic_value": 27.4545,
      "optimistic_value": 27.43,
      "output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
      "conservative_value": 26.57,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:22.685829Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.0675024,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
      "realistic_value": 25.661,
      "optimistic_value": 25.64,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
      "conservative_value": 25.62,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.06174,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
      "realistic_value": 20.058,
      "optimistic_value": 19.89,
      "output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
      "conservative_value": 19.85,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:08.219163Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_e0797d260080cda2c2e32953",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 1.16,
      "skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
      "listing_id": "496102290329977223",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:43.027759Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.17,
      "skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
      "listing_id": "500605942755443555",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:43.027759Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
      "listing_id": "516368541588556442",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:43.027759Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "630083017718303094",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:20.885037Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.44,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "652601015909084844",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:46.655825Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.02,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "518620341243184240",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:19.354031Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.04,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "523123940969190454",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:19.354031Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "498354142900372711",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:14.470572Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.71,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "634586617400715303",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:19.354031Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.03,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "642467916641632601",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:14.470572Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $4.33 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $3.91 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.22	$6.94 +107.3%	$4.08 +21.7%	65.0%	+71.6%	$3.35	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $4.33 Monster Melt 10.0% $4.09 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $4.05 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.22	$6.93 +90.4%	$4.10 +12.6%	65.0%	+65.7%	$3.64	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $10.29 Monster Melt 10.0% $8.45 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.56	$18.08 +80.6%	$11.20 +11.8%	55.0%	+53.4%	$10.01	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $27.45 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $25.66 Monster Melt 10.0% $20.06 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.38	$38.92 +57.7%	$25.62 +3.8%	55.0%	+44.0%	$24.68	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Monster Melt 3.3% $20.06 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.38 Eye of Zapems 3.3% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 3.3% $10.29	$38.92 +93.4%	$24.90 +23.7%	45.0%	+63.5%	$20.12	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $4.33 Monster Melt 13.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $3.91 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.20	$6.94 +107.9%	$4.07 +21.9%	70.0%	+66.7%	$3.34	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Eye of Zapems 6.7% $4.33 Monster Melt 6.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $3.91 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.20	$6.94 +106.7%	$4.07 +21.2%	60.0%	+76.5%	$3.36	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Eye of Zapems 26.7% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $10.29 Monster Melt 26.7% $8.45 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.56	$18.08 +108.7%	$10.15 +17.2%	63.3%	+35.0%	$8.66	—