The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Wurst Hölle

3x $1.16
Reef Grief

4x $1.31
Royal Baroque

1x $1.44
Mint Fan

2x $3.31
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate

35.0% $38.92
Eye of Zapems

10.0% $27.45
Sweet Little Angels

10.0% $25.66
Monster Melt

10.0% $20.06
Royal Guard

35.0% $13.38
Max Win
$38.92 (+79.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$25.62 (+18.2%)
Win %
55.0%
Volatility
+50.1%
Cost
$21.68
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $21.68
Ask Price EV $25.62 (+18.2%)
Bid Price EV $23.87 (+10.1%)
Ask Profit $3.94 (+18.2%)
Bid Profit $2.19 (+10.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.75 (+8.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.94
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.19
Risk
Win Probability 55.0%
Loss Probability 45.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+79.5%)
Worst Case $13.38 (-38.3%)
Volatility +50.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 35.0%
Avg Win +$12.75
Avg Loss -$6.82
Bottom 5% Outcome $13.38 (-38.3%)
Std Dev $10.85
Avg Norm Float 0.0823
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 105h 53m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear

$1.16 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear

$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear

$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear

$1.31 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear

$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New

$2.02 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New

$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Factory New

$3.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New

$3.71 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Factory New

$4.03 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 34M 32S //TOTAL COST $21.68 //ASK PRICE EV $25.62 //BID PRICE EV $23.87 //ASK PROFIT $3.94 (+18.2%) //BID PROFIT $2.19 (+10.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 55.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +50.1% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated

BIG WIN
35.0%
$38.92
+$17.24
+79.5%
$34.38
+$12.70
+58.6%
$4.54
11.7%
—

WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$27.45
+$5.77
+26.6%
$26.57
+$4.89
+22.6%
$0.88
3.2%
—

Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Factory New | ƒ 0.0675024
The Overpass 2024 Collection
WIN
10.0%
$25.66
+$3.98
+18.4%
$25.62
+$3.94
+18.2%
$0.04
0.2%
—

LOSS
10.0%
$20.06
-$1.62
-7.5%
$19.85
-$1.83
-8.4%
$0.21
1.0%
—

LOSS
35.0%
$13.38
-$8.30
-38.3%
$13.24
-$8.44
-38.9%
$0.14
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.06174,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.049392,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.378499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 13.27,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:23.162668Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.069972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 27.4545,
"optimistic_value": 27.43,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 26.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:22.685829Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0675024,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 25.661,
"optimistic_value": 25.64,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06174,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 20.058,
"optimistic_value": 19.89,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 19.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:08.219163Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_e0797d260080cda2c2e32953",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.16,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "496102290329977223",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:43.027759Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "500605942755443555",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:43.027759Z"
},
{
"price": 1.49,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "516368541588556442",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:43.027759Z"
},
{
"price": 1.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "630083017718303094",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:20.885037Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:46.655825Z"
},
{
"price": 2.02,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "518620341243184240",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:19.354031Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "523123940969190454",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:19.354031Z"
},
{
"price": 3.31,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "498354142900372711",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:14.470572Z"
},
{
"price": 3.71,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "634586617400715303",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:19.354031Z"
},
{
"price": 4.03,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "642467916641632601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:14.470572Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate ![]() 35.0% $6.94 Eye of Zapems ![]() 10.0% $4.33 Monster Melt ![]() 10.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels ![]() 10.0% $3.91 Royal Guard ![]() 35.0% $1.22 | $6.94 +107.3% | $4.08 +21.7% | 65.0% | +71.6% | $3.35 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate ![]() 35.0% $6.93 Eye of Zapems ![]() 10.0% $4.33 Monster Melt ![]() 10.0% $4.09 Sweet Little Angels ![]() 10.0% $4.05 Royal Guard ![]() 35.0% $1.22 | $6.93 +90.4% | $4.10 +12.6% | 65.0% | +65.7% | $3.64 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate ![]() 35.0% $18.08 Eye of Zapems ![]() 10.0% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels ![]() 10.0% $10.29 Monster Melt ![]() 10.0% $8.45 Royal Guard ![]() 35.0% $5.56 | $18.08 +80.6% | $11.20 +11.8% | 55.0% | +53.4% | $10.01 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Midnight Laminate ![]() 35.0% $38.92 Eye of Zapems ![]() 10.0% $27.45 Sweet Little Angels ![]() 10.0% $25.66 Monster Melt ![]() 10.0% $20.06 Royal Guard ![]() 35.0% $13.38 | $38.92 +57.7% | $25.62 +3.8% | 55.0% | +44.0% | $24.68 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate ![]() 45.0% $38.92 Monster Melt ![]() 3.3% $20.06 Royal Guard ![]() 45.0% $13.38 Eye of Zapems ![]() 3.3% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels ![]() 3.3% $10.29 | $38.92 +93.4% | $24.90 +23.7% | 45.0% | +63.5% | $20.12 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate ![]() 30.0% $6.94 Eye of Zapems ![]() 13.3% $4.33 Monster Melt ![]() 13.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels ![]() 13.3% $3.91 Royal Guard ![]() 30.0% $1.20 | $6.94 +107.9% | $4.07 +21.9% | 70.0% | +66.7% | $3.34 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate ![]() 40.0% $6.94 Eye of Zapems ![]() 6.7% $4.33 Monster Melt ![]() 6.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels ![]() 6.7% $3.91 Royal Guard ![]() 40.0% $1.20 | $6.94 +106.7% | $4.07 +21.2% | 60.0% | +76.5% | $3.36 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate ![]() 10.0% $18.08 Eye of Zapems ![]() 26.7% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels ![]() 26.7% $10.29 Monster Melt ![]() 26.7% $8.45 Royal Guard ![]() 10.0% $5.56 | $18.08 +108.7% | $10.15 +17.2% | 63.3% | +35.0% | $8.66 | — |