The Italy Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Gunsmoke
1x $0.29
Stained
1x $0.32
CaliCamo
1x $0.54
Mustard Gas
2x $0.14
Tiger Tear
2x $0.15
Leafhopper
2x $0.16
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
14.0% $4.61
Tropical Breeze
14.0% $3.67
Candy Apple
10.0% $3.63
Anodized Navy
10.0% $2.48
Full Stop
10.0% $1.53
Gold Leaf
14.0% $1.52
Max Win
$4.61 (+102.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.38 (+4.6%)
Win %
48.0%
Volatility
+60.9%
Cost
$2.28
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.28
Ask Price EV $2.38 (+4.6%)
Bid Price EV $2.25 (-1.5%)
Ask Profit $0.10 (+4.6%)
Bid Profit $-0.03 (-1.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.14 (+6.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.10
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.03
Risk
Win Probability 48.0%
Loss Probability 52.0%
Best Case $4.61 (+102.2%)
Worst Case $0.49 (-78.5%)
Volatility +60.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 52.0%
Avg Win +$1.41
Avg Loss -$1.10
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.49 (-78.5%)
Std Dev $1.39
Avg Norm Float 0.1156
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 152h 32m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Gunsmoke
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Stained
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | CaliCamo
—
Factory New
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 19M 44S //TOTAL COST $2.28 //ASK PRICE EV $2.38 //BID PRICE EV $2.25 //ASK PROFIT $0.10 (+4.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.03 (-1.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 48.0% //BEST CASE $4.61 //VOLATILITY +60.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
14.0%
$4.61
+$2.33
+102.2%
$3.81
+$1.53
+67.1%
$0.80
17.4%
—
BIG WIN
14.0%
$3.67
+$1.39
+61.0%
$3.64
+$1.36
+59.6%
$0.03
0.8%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$3.63
+$1.35
+59.4%
$3.60
+$1.32
+57.9%
$0.03
0.9%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$2.48
+$0.20
+8.6%
$2.47
+$0.19
+8.3%
$0.01
0.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$1.53
-$0.75
-32.9%
$1.51
-$0.77
-33.8%
$0.02
1.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$1.52
-$0.76
-33.5%
$1.49
-$0.79
-34.6%
$0.03
1.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$1.29
-$0.99
-43.4%
$1.28
-$1.00
-43.9%
$0.01
0.8%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.49
-$1.79
-78.5%
$0.41
-$1.87
-82.0%
$0.08
16.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-italy|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0866775,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 4.61,
"optimistic_value": 4.61,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 3.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:23.769730Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.07858760000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 0.49,
"optimistic_value": 0.49,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 0.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:58.866933Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.069342,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.517,
"optimistic_value": 1.51,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:23.192490Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06356350000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.069342,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.29,
"optimistic_value": 1.29,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:36.320077Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.034671,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4e5b581684d4",
"realistic_value": 3.6335,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:41:52.882116Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4e5b581684d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.009245600000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-16044409b9f9",
"realistic_value": 2.4770000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.47,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 2.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:50:04.764312Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-16044409b9f9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.069342,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5399c334e3b4",
"realistic_value": 1.53,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop",
"conservative_value": 1.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:27.528399Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5399c334e3b4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_dc69439353fa2a35c7aff0a0",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-4876ba10c2c4",
"listing_id": "502857742727008900",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4876ba10c2c4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:50:18.492564Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-c4a250807703",
"listing_id": "500605942755677123",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Stained (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Stained",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c4a250807703.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:55:41.102528Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-f186f29dda0c",
"listing_id": "493850543432266312",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | CaliCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f186f29dda0c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:53:10.261583Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "527627540537583392",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:47.083296Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "512990623225420919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:12:21.440901Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "527627322006725396",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:12:21.440901Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "503983423971210091",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:52.639583Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "515242423037531833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:49:18.111429Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "515242423032787825",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:47.083296Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "521997988015820706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:52.639583Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-italy:3+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 10.0% $3.63 Anodized Navy 10.0% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 14.0% $0.49 Gold Leaf 14.0% $0.39 | $4.61 +227.0% | $1.72 +21.9% | 48.0% | +101.6% | $1.41 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 3.3% $3.63 Anodized Navy 3.3% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 18.0% $0.48 Gold Leaf 18.0% $0.39 | $4.61 +277.9% | $1.60 +31.0% | 42.7% | +124.0% | $1.22 | — |
The Italy Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 6.7% $3.63 Anodized Navy 6.7% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 16.0% $0.49 Gold Leaf 16.0% $0.39 | $4.61 +251.9% | $1.66 +26.7% | 45.3% | +112.6% | $1.31 | — |
The Italy Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 13.3% $3.63 Anodized Navy 13.3% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 12.0% $0.49 Gold Leaf 12.0% $0.39 | $4.61 +205.3% | $1.78 +17.8% | 50.7% | +91.7% | $1.51 | — |
The Italy Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 16.7% $3.63 Anodized Navy 16.7% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 10.0% $0.49 Gold Leaf 10.0% $0.39 | $4.61 +177.7% | $1.84 +10.7% | 53.3% | +80.0% | $1.66 | — |