The Italy Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
CaliCamo
1x $0.14
Boreal Forest
2x $0.18
Marsh
2x $0.07
Leafhopper
3x $0.08
Tiger Tear
2x $0.15
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
14.0% $4.61
Candy Apple
10.0% $3.63
Anodized Navy
10.0% $2.48
Tropical Breeze
14.0% $1.82
Poplar Thicket
14.0% $0.48
Gold Leaf
14.0% $0.40
Max Win
$4.61 (+227.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.72 (+21.9%)
Win %
48.0%
Volatility
+112.2%
Cost
$1.41
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.41
Ask Price EV $1.72 (+21.9%)
Bid Price EV $1.57 (+11.1%)
Ask Profit $0.31 (+21.9%)
Bid Profit $0.16 (+11.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.15 (+10.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.31
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.16
Risk
Win Probability 48.0%
Loss Probability 52.0%
Best Case $4.61 (+227.0%)
Worst Case $0.30 (-78.7%)
Volatility +112.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 52.0%
Avg Win +$1.74
Avg Loss -$1.01
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.30 (-78.7%)
Std Dev $1.58
Avg Norm Float 0.2000
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 151h 40m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | CaliCamo
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 27M 49S //TOTAL COST $1.41 //ASK PRICE EV $1.72 //BID PRICE EV $1.57 //ASK PROFIT $0.31 (+21.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.16 (+11.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 48.0% //BEST CASE $4.61 //VOLATILITY +112.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$4.61
+$3.20
+227.0%
$3.81
+$2.40
+170.2%
$0.80
17.4%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$3.63
+$2.22
+157.7%
$3.60
+$2.19
+155.3%
$0.03
0.9%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$2.48
+$1.07
+75.7%
$2.47
+$1.06
+75.2%
$0.01
0.3%
—
WIN
14.0%
$1.82
+$0.41
+29.1%
$1.70
+$0.29
+20.6%
$0.12
6.6%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.48
-$0.93
-66.0%
$0.41
-$1.00
-70.9%
$0.07
14.6%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.40
-$1.01
-71.4%
$0.38
-$1.03
-73.0%
$0.02
5.8%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.38
-$1.03
-72.8%
$0.35
-$1.06
-75.2%
$0.03
8.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.30
-$1.11
-78.7%
$0.29
-$1.12
-79.4%
$0.01
3.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-italy|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1499925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 4.61,
"optimistic_value": 4.61,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 3.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:23.769730Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1359932,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 0.48,
"optimistic_value": 0.48,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 0.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:21.311019Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.11999399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 0.4035,
"optimistic_value": 0.4,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:02:40.078583Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.10999450000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 1.821,
"optimistic_value": 1.73,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.839903Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.11999399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 0.384,
"optimistic_value": 0.37,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 0.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:58:03.894165Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.059996999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4e5b581684d4",
"realistic_value": 3.6335,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:41:52.882116Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4e5b581684d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0159992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-16044409b9f9",
"realistic_value": 2.4770000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.47,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 2.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:50:04.764312Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-16044409b9f9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.11999399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5399c334e3b4",
"realistic_value": 0.3,
"optimistic_value": 0.3,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop",
"conservative_value": 0.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:48:49.299340Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5399c334e3b4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_dc69439353fa2a35c7aff0a0",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-f186f29dda0c",
"listing_id": "527627540537796008",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | CaliCamo (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | CaliCamo",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f186f29dda0c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:21.936588Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-7c750505c0aa",
"listing_id": "518620288314587440",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7c750505c0aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:09:39.972954Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-7c750505c0aa",
"listing_id": "492723793458710541",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7c750505c0aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:09:39.972954Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "527627487624253760",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:11:23.116903Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "502856892559649080",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:11:23.116903Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "519746135814788696",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:05:38.669220Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "512990623225420919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:20:44.003827Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "527627322006725396",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:20:44.003827Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "512990623227020543",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:14:12.300341Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "521997988015820706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:14:12.300341Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-italy:3+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $3.67 Candy Apple 10.0% $3.63 Anodized Navy 10.0% $2.48 Gold Leaf 14.0% $1.57 Full Stop 10.0% $1.53 | $4.61 +107.7% | $2.39 +7.7% | 48.0% | +50.2% | $2.22 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 6.7% $3.63 Anodized Navy 6.7% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 16.0% $0.49 Gold Leaf 16.0% $0.39 | $4.61 +251.9% | $1.66 +26.7% | 45.3% | +112.6% | $1.31 | — |
The Italy Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 13.3% $3.63 Anodized Navy 13.3% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 12.0% $0.49 Gold Leaf 12.0% $0.39 | $4.61 +203.3% | $1.78 +17.0% | 50.7% | +91.1% | $1.52 | — |
The Italy Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 16.7% $3.63 Anodized Navy 16.7% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 10.0% $0.49 Gold Leaf 10.0% $0.40 | $4.61 +177.7% | $1.84 +10.8% | 53.3% | +79.9% | $1.66 | — |