The Italy Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Gunsmoke
1x $0.29
Stained
1x $0.32
CaliCamo
1x $0.69
Leafhopper
1x $0.18
Garter-9
1x $0.21
Tiger Tear
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
14.0% $10.66
Tropical Breeze
14.0% $3.67
Candy Apple
10.0% $3.63
Anodized Navy
10.0% $2.48
Poplar Thicket
14.0% $1.54
Full Stop
10.0% $1.53
Max Win
$10.66 (+91.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.38 (-39.3%)
Win %
14.0%
Volatility
+55.1%
Cost
$5.57
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.57
Ask Price EV $3.38 (-39.3%)
Bid Price EV $3.24 (-41.8%)
Ask Profit $-2.19 (-39.3%)
Bid Profit $-2.33 (-41.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.14 (+2.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.19
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.33
Risk
Win Probability 14.0%
Loss Probability 86.0%
Best Case $10.66 (+91.4%)
Worst Case $1.29 (-76.8%)
Volatility +55.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 86.0%
Avg Win +$5.09
Avg Loss -$3.38
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.29 (-76.8%)
Std Dev $3.07
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 26m
Oldest Output Price 152h 31m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Gunsmoke
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Stained
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | CaliCamo
—
Factory New
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$1.20 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 19M 36S //TOTAL COST $5.57 //ASK PRICE EV $3.38 //BID PRICE EV $3.24 //ASK PROFIT $-2.19 (-39.3%) //BID PROFIT $-2.33 (-41.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 14.0% //BEST CASE $10.66 //VOLATILITY +55.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
14.0%
$10.66
+$5.09
+91.4%
$9.81
+$4.24
+76.1%
$0.85
8.0%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$3.67
-$1.90
-34.1%
$3.64
-$1.93
-34.6%
$0.03
0.8%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$3.63
-$1.94
-34.8%
$3.60
-$1.97
-35.4%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.48
-$3.09
-55.5%
$2.47
-$3.10
-55.7%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.54
-$4.03
-72.4%
$1.52
-$4.05
-72.7%
$0.02
1.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.53
-$4.04
-72.5%
$1.51
-$4.06
-72.9%
$0.02
1.3%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.52
-$4.05
-72.8%
$1.49
-$4.08
-73.2%
$0.03
1.8%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.29
-$4.28
-76.8%
$1.28
-$4.29
-77.0%
$0.01
0.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-italy|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.052379999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 10.66,
"optimistic_value": 10.66,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 9.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:10.267254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.047491200000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 1.54,
"optimistic_value": 1.54,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:55:27.423679Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041904,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.517,
"optimistic_value": 1.51,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:23.192490Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.038412,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041904,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.29,
"optimistic_value": 1.29,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:36.320077Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.020952,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4e5b581684d4",
"realistic_value": 3.6335,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:41:52.882116Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4e5b581684d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0055872,
"output_skin_id": "skin-16044409b9f9",
"realistic_value": 2.4770000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.47,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 2.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:50:04.764312Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-16044409b9f9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041904,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5399c334e3b4",
"realistic_value": 1.53,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop",
"conservative_value": 1.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:27.528399Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5399c334e3b4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_dc69439353fa2a35c7aff0a0",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-4876ba10c2c4",
"listing_id": "502857742727008900",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4876ba10c2c4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:50:18.492564Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-c4a250807703",
"listing_id": "500605942755677123",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Stained (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Stained",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c4a250807703.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:55:41.102528Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-f186f29dda0c",
"listing_id": "657104615563769652",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | CaliCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f186f29dda0c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:53:10.261583Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "521997988015820706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:52.639583Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "492724643507774613",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:56:00.430663Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "529879340432661708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:50:33.359335Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "503983642533256579",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:48.797707Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "502857689861815552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:51.493377Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "490472625091045239",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:48.797707Z"
},
{
"price": 1.2,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "490472625090884103",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:48.797707Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-italy:3+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 10.0% $3.63 Anodized Navy 10.0% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 14.0% $0.49 Gold Leaf 14.0% $0.39 | $4.61 +227.0% | $1.72 +21.9% | 48.0% | +101.6% | $1.41 | — |
The Italy Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $3.67 Candy Apple 10.0% $3.63 Anodized Navy 10.0% $2.48 Full Stop 10.0% $1.53 Gold Leaf 14.0% $1.52 | $4.61 +102.2% | $2.38 +4.6% | 48.0% | +49.2% | $2.28 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 3.3% $3.63 Anodized Navy 3.3% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 18.0% $0.48 Gold Leaf 18.0% $0.39 | $4.61 +277.9% | $1.60 +31.0% | 42.7% | +124.0% | $1.22 | — |
The Italy Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 6.7% $3.63 Anodized Navy 6.7% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 16.0% $0.49 Gold Leaf 16.0% $0.39 | $4.61 +251.9% | $1.66 +26.7% | 45.3% | +112.6% | $1.31 | — |
The Italy Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 13.3% $3.63 Anodized Navy 13.3% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 12.0% $0.49 Gold Leaf 12.0% $0.39 | $4.61 +205.3% | $1.78 +17.8% | 50.7% | +91.7% | $1.51 | — |
The Italy Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 16.7% $3.63 Anodized Navy 16.7% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 10.0% $0.49 Gold Leaf 10.0% $0.39 | $4.61 +177.7% | $1.84 +10.7% | 53.3% | +80.0% | $1.66 | — |