The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Prototype
2x $0.47
Tom Cat
1x $0.50
Blue Ply
2x $1.06
Wurst Hölle
1x $1.49
Metallic Squeezer
2x $2.25
Teal Graf
2x $4.11
↓
Possible Outputs
Acid Etched
10.0% $34.68
Eye of Zapems
16.7% $26.90
Sweet Little Angels
16.7% $25.66
Monster Melt
16.7% $20.37
Enforcer
10.0% $9.50
Darkwing
10.0% $9.41
Max Win
$34.68 (+72.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$19.31 (-4.0%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+44.8%
Cost
$20.11
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $20.11
Ask Price EV $19.31 (-4.0%)
Bid Price EV $18.71 (-7.0%)
Ask Profit $-0.80 (-4.0%)
Bid Profit $-1.40 (-7.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.60 (+3.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.80
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.40
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $34.68 (+72.4%)
Worst Case $8.57 (-57.4%)
Volatility +44.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$5.93
Avg Loss -$10.90
Bottom 5% Outcome $8.57 (-57.4%)
Std Dev $9.00
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 149h 27m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply
—
Minimal Wear
$1.06 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply
—
Minimal Wear
$1.09 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Factory New
$1.81 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Factory New
$2.25 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Factory New
$2.68 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Factory New
$4.11 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Factory New
$4.65 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 57M 43S //TOTAL COST $20.11 //ASK PRICE EV $19.31 //BID PRICE EV $18.71 //ASK PROFIT $-0.80 (-4.0%) //BID PROFIT $-1.40 (-7.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $34.68 //VOLATILITY +44.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$34.68
+$14.56
+72.4%
$32.11
+$12.00
+59.7%
$2.56
7.4%
—
WIN
16.7%
$26.90
+$6.79
+33.8%
$26.57
+$6.46
+32.1%
$0.33
1.2%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Factory New | ƒ 0.0573754
The Overpass 2024 Collection
WIN
16.7%
$25.66
+$5.55
+27.6%
$25.62
+$5.51
+27.4%
$0.04
0.2%
—
PAPER WIN
16.7%
$20.37
+$0.26
+1.3%
$19.85
-$0.26
-1.3%
$0.52
2.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$9.50
-$10.61
-52.7%
$8.94
-$11.17
-55.5%
$0.56
5.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$9.41
-$10.70
-53.2%
$9.24
-$10.87
-54.1%
$0.17
1.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$9.34
-$10.77
-53.6%
$8.74
-$11.37
-56.5%
$0.60
6.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$8.57
-$11.54
-57.4%
$7.96
-$12.15
-60.4%
$0.61
7.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.0594745,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 26.901999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.58,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 26.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:16:57.345488Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.0573754,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 25.661,
"optimistic_value": 25.64,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.0524775,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 20.3745,
"optimistic_value": 20.35,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 19.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:23.539782Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 34.675,
"optimistic_value": 34.5,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 32.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:31.771580Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 9.503,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 8.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:19.737132Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 9.4085,
"optimistic_value": 9.37,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 9.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:16:45.120254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.050378400000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 8.574,
"optimistic_value": 8.56,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 7.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:21:54.674476Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 9.3375,
"optimistic_value": 9.25,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 8.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:02.954499Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d818b5bedf1f48d4f8f74108",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "492723793448175861",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:00.457657Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "669488905360173675",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:48.538183Z"
},
{
"price": 1.06,
"skin_id": "skin-5293f56bb6b8",
"listing_id": "523123091059693018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5293f56bb6b8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:17.537391Z"
},
{
"price": 1.09,
"skin_id": "skin-5293f56bb6b8",
"listing_id": "505109489447933888",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5293f56bb6b8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:17.537391Z"
},
{
"price": 1.81,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "490472738292643731",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:34:59.442037Z"
},
{
"price": 1.49,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "625579418033580202",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:20:20.771417Z"
},
{
"price": 2.25,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "496102343225386739",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:48.812052Z"
},
{
"price": 2.68,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "523123888072619974",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:48.812052Z"
},
{
"price": 4.11,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "505109542379527328",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:46.486607Z"
},
{
"price": 4.65,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "505109542379550332",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:46.486607Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:5+collection-set-overpass-2024:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.29 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.78 Fever Dream 10.0% $3.06 Acid Etched 10.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 10.0% $1.00 | $10.47 +127.1% | $5.62 +21.9% | 50.0% | +81.5% | $4.61 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.29 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.78 Fever Dream 10.0% $3.06 Acid Etched 10.0% $2.38 Darkwing 10.0% $2.29 | $10.47 +87.6% | $6.08 +8.9% | 50.0% | +59.7% | $5.58 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.29 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.78 Fever Dream 8.0% $3.06 Acid Etched 8.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 8.0% $1.00 | $10.47 +99.4% | $6.47 +23.1% | 60.0% | +68.4% | $5.25 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 23.3% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $10.29 Monster Melt 23.3% $8.78 Fever Dream 6.0% $3.06 Acid Etched 6.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 6.0% $1.00 | $10.47 +75.7% | $7.31 +22.7% | 70.0% | +55.0% | $5.96 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.29 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.17 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.78 Fever Dream 12.0% $3.05 Acid Etched 12.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 12.0% $1.00 | $10.29 +154.1% | $4.73 +16.9% | 40.0% | +92.1% | $4.05 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×8+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crakow!  10.0% $47.63 Dragon Snore  10.0% $33.28 Phantom Disruptor  26.7% $8.87 Justice  26.7% $8.21 Disco Tech  26.7% $8.10 | $47.63 +257.3% | $14.81 +11.1% | 20.0% | +99.2% | $13.33 | — |