The Glove Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Black Sand
1x $0.62
Fraise Crane
1x $0.37
Sky Mandala
3x $0.39
Warm Blooded
4x $0.47
Earth Mandala
1x $0.48
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
45.0% $7.31
Gila
2.0% $6.64
Stinger
2.0% $6.03
Cyrex
2.0% $5.91
Royal Consorts
2.0% $5.54
Flashback
2.0% $5.46
Max Win
$7.31 (+10.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.95 (-25.3%)
Win %
47.0%
Volatility
+35.9%
Cost
$6.62
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.62
Ask Price EV $4.95 (-25.3%)
Bid Price EV $4.73 (-28.5%)
Ask Profit $-1.67 (-25.3%)
Bid Profit $-1.89 (-28.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.21 (+3.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.67
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.89
Risk
Win Probability 47.0%
Loss Probability 53.0%
Best Case $7.31 (+10.5%)
Worst Case $2.36 (-64.3%)
Volatility +35.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 45.0%
Avg Win +$0.66
Avg Loss -$3.75
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.36 (-64.3%)
Std Dev $2.37
Avg Norm Float 0.4497
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 109h 37m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Black Sand
—
Well-Worn
$0.62 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.08 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.26 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 05S //TOTAL COST $6.62 //ASK PRICE EV $4.95 //BID PRICE EV $4.73 //ASK PROFIT $-1.67 (-25.3%) //BID PROFIT $-1.89 (-28.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 47.0% //BEST CASE $7.31 //VOLATILITY +35.9% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
SMALL WIN
45.0%
$7.31
+$0.69
+10.5%
$7.05
+$0.43
+6.5%
$0.26
3.6%
—
PAPER WIN
2.0%
$6.64
+$0.01
+0.2%
$5.49
-$1.13
-17.1%
$1.14
17.3%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$6.03
-$0.59
-8.9%
$5.49
-$1.13
-17.1%
$0.54
9.0%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$5.91
-$0.71
-10.7%
$5.88
-$0.74
-11.2%
$0.03
0.6%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$5.54
-$1.08
-16.4%
$5.13
-$1.49
-22.5%
$0.41
7.4%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$5.46
-$1.16
-17.6%
$5.34
-$1.28
-19.3%
$0.12
2.1%
—
NUKE
45.0%
$2.36
-$4.26
-64.3%
$2.25
-$4.37
-66.0%
$0.11
4.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-15|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-15"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.314811,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.3135,
"optimistic_value": 7.24,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 7.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:03:08.217724Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.314811,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.3615,
"optimistic_value": 2.26,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:38.646800Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.44973,
"output_skin_id": "skin-54963e630d31",
"realistic_value": 5.5375,
"optimistic_value": 5.52,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts",
"conservative_value": 5.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-15",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Glove Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T15:33:51.800935Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-54963e630d31.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.314811,
"output_skin_id": "skin-00b8673938d7",
"realistic_value": 6.0315,
"optimistic_value": 6,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Stinger",
"conservative_value": 5.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-15",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Glove Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Stinger (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:13.620551Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-00b8673938d7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.44973,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3795f6827a11",
"realistic_value": 5.457,
"optimistic_value": 5.45,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Flashback",
"conservative_value": 5.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-15",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Glove Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:40.202637Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3795f6827a11.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.134919,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b935cdf1da4b",
"realistic_value": 6.635,
"optimistic_value": 6.6,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Gila",
"conservative_value": 5.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-15",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Glove Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Gila (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T14:42:19.172082Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b935cdf1da4b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.24735150000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-95653cc7fb0e",
"realistic_value": 5.9135,
"optimistic_value": 5.91,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Cyrex",
"conservative_value": 5.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-15",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Glove Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T13:52:00.118193Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-95653cc7fb0e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d58c4e3e77ad6369624409f5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.62,
"skin_id": "skin-2c0ae1658110",
"listing_id": "507361289453329069",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-15",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Galil AR | Black Sand",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c0ae1658110.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:43.739293Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "523123888071490906",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:20.939582Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "500605889840186159",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:12.826284Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "508487189339587610",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:12.826284Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "520872088106943564",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:28.988837Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985363085",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:38.160374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "494976390476927238",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:29.403025Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "520872088106733504",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.972481Z"
},
{
"price": 1.08,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "508487136895989362",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.972481Z"
},
{
"price": 1.26,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "510738823413937978",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.972481Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-15:1+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Glove Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Stinger 2.0% $6.77 Gila 2.0% $6.29 Cyrex 2.0% $5.91 Royal Consorts 2.0% $4.95 Flashback 2.0% $4.92 | $9.85 +116.5% | $5.97 +31.3% | 55.0% | +57.4% | $4.55 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Glove Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Stinger 4.0% $6.77 Gila 4.0% $6.29 Cyrex 4.0% $5.91 Royal Consorts 4.0% $4.95 Flashback 4.0% $4.92 | $9.85 +104.8% | $5.95 +23.7% | 60.0% | +51.7% | $4.81 | — |
The Glove Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Stinger 6.0% $6.77 Gila 6.0% $6.29 Cyrex 6.0% $5.91 Royal Consorts 6.0% $4.95 Flashback 6.0% $4.92 | $9.85 +93.5% | $5.94 +16.7% | 53.0% | +46.2% | $5.09 | — |
The Glove Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Gila 8.0% $17.92 Exothermic 30.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Stinger 8.0% $8.24 Cyrex 8.0% $7.04 Royal Consorts 8.0% $6.23 | $17.92 +75.8% | $11.35 +11.4% | 68.0% | +30.9% | $10.19 | — |
The Glove Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Gila 10.0% $17.92 Exothermic 25.0% $13.90 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Stinger 10.0% $8.24 Cyrex 10.0% $7.04 Royal Consorts 10.0% $6.23 | $17.92 +74.1% | $10.95 +6.5% | 60.0% | +33.2% | $10.29 | — |