The Glove Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Black Sand
1x $3.45
Warm Blooded
5x $2.27
Earth Mandala
3x $2.30
Sky Mandala
1x $3.96
↓
Possible Outputs
Flashback
2.0% $119.03
Royal Consorts
2.0% $44.55
Cyrex
2.0% $34.05
Exothermic
45.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
45.0% $24.63
Stinger
2.0% $19.50
Max Win
$119.03 (+311.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$27.84 (-3.9%)
Win %
6.0%
Volatility
+46.5%
Cost
$28.96
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $28.96
Ask Price EV $27.84 (-3.9%)
Bid Price EV $26.14 (-9.7%)
Ask Profit $-1.12 (-3.9%)
Bid Profit $-2.82 (-9.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.70 (+5.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.12
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.82
Risk
Win Probability 6.0%
Loss Probability 94.0%
Best Case $119.03 (+311.0%)
Worst Case $17.92 (-38.1%)
Volatility +46.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 4.0%
Avg Win +$36.92
Avg Loss -$3.55
Bottom 5% Outcome $24.63 (-15.0%)
Std Dev $13.46
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 27m
Oldest Output Price 143h 33m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Black Sand
—
Minimal Wear
$3.45 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$4.02 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 34M 47S //TOTAL COST $28.96 //ASK PRICE EV $27.84 //BID PRICE EV $26.14 //ASK PROFIT $-1.12 (-3.9%) //BID PROFIT $-2.82 (-9.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 6.0% //BEST CASE $119.03 //VOLATILITY +46.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$119.03
+$90.07
+311.0%
$109.91
+$80.95
+279.5%
$9.12
7.7%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$44.55
+$15.59
+53.8%
$41.59
+$12.63
+43.6%
$2.96
6.6%
—
WIN
2.0%
$34.05
+$5.09
+17.6%
$33.35
+$4.39
+15.2%
$0.70
2.1%
—
LOSS
45.0%
$26.79
-$2.17
-7.5%
$25.96
-$3.00
-10.4%
$0.83
3.1%
—
LOSS
45.0%
$24.63
-$4.33
-15.0%
$22.28
-$6.68
-23.1%
$2.35
9.5%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$19.50
-$9.46
-32.7%
$19.06
-$9.90
-34.2%
$0.44
2.3%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$17.92
-$11.04
-38.1%
$17.55
-$11.41
-39.4%
$0.37
2.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-15|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-15"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.048894999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:27.397267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.048894999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-54963e630d31",
"realistic_value": 44.551500000000004,
"optimistic_value": 44.31,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts",
"conservative_value": 41.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-15",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Glove Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:46:31.541057Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-54963e630d31.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.048894999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-00b8673938d7",
"realistic_value": 19.503,
"optimistic_value": 19.09,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Stinger",
"conservative_value": 19.06,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-15",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Glove Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Stinger (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:37.984442Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-00b8673938d7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3795f6827a11",
"realistic_value": 119.032,
"optimistic_value": 118.57,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Flashback",
"conservative_value": 109.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-15",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Glove Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:51:44.772567Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3795f6827a11.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.020954999999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b935cdf1da4b",
"realistic_value": 17.919,
"optimistic_value": 17.66,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Gila",
"conservative_value": 17.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-15",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Glove Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Gila (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:31.340976Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b935cdf1da4b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0384175,
"output_skin_id": "skin-95653cc7fb0e",
"realistic_value": 34.054,
"optimistic_value": 34.04,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Cyrex",
"conservative_value": 33.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-15",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Glove Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Cyrex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:49:56.407117Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-95653cc7fb0e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d58c4e3e77ad6369624409f5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 3.45,
"skin_id": "skin-2c0ae1658110",
"listing_id": "517494388633380082",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-15",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Black Sand",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c0ae1658110.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:28.298149Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "529879287550357884",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.386193Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985191545",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:15.962603Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "516368488725166478",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:15.962603Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.386193Z"
},
{
"price": 2.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "496102290329375051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:15.962603Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.386193Z"
},
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109323870001060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.386193Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "501731789729270537",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:16.221223Z"
},
{
"price": 4.02,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "526500790836642953",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.386193Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-15:1+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Glove Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Stinger 2.0% $6.77 Gila 2.0% $6.29 Cyrex 2.0% $5.91 Royal Consorts 2.0% $4.95 Flashback 2.0% $4.92 | $9.85 +116.5% | $5.97 +31.3% | 55.0% | +57.4% | $4.55 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Glove Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Stinger 4.0% $6.77 Gila 4.0% $6.29 Cyrex 4.0% $5.91 Royal Consorts 4.0% $4.95 Flashback 4.0% $4.92 | $9.85 +104.8% | $5.95 +23.7% | 60.0% | +51.7% | $4.81 | — |
The Glove Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Stinger 6.0% $6.77 Gila 6.0% $6.29 Cyrex 6.0% $5.91 Royal Consorts 6.0% $4.95 Flashback 6.0% $4.92 | $9.85 +93.5% | $5.94 +16.7% | 53.0% | +46.2% | $5.09 | — |
The Glove Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Gila 8.0% $17.92 Exothermic 30.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Stinger 8.0% $8.24 Cyrex 8.0% $7.04 Royal Consorts 8.0% $6.23 | $17.92 +75.8% | $11.35 +11.4% | 68.0% | +30.9% | $10.19 | — |
The Glove Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Gila 10.0% $17.92 Exothermic 25.0% $13.90 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Stinger 10.0% $8.24 Cyrex 10.0% $7.04 Royal Consorts 10.0% $6.23 | $17.92 +74.1% | $10.95 +6.5% | 60.0% | +33.2% | $10.29 | — |