The Fever Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4

Restricted → Classified MW 10 items

Factory New +24.7%Field-Tested +6.6%Minimal Wear -1.0%Well-Worn -30.7%

Contract

Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear

Inputs

Wave Breaker

2x $1.58

Rising Sun

3x $1.77

Tosai

1x $1.80

Charged Up

2x $7.60

Derailment

2x $14.87

↓

Possible Outputs

Hellish

20.0% $138.17

Latte Rush

20.0% $122.85

Shinobu

20.0% $13.66

Searing Rage

20.0% $11.71

K.O. Factory

20.0% $9.87

Max Win

$138.17 (+130.8%)

EV (ROI %)

$59.25 (-1.0%)

Win %

40.0%

Volatility

+97.6%

Cost

$59.86

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $59.86

Ask Price EV $59.25 (-1.0%)

Bid Price EV $55.34 (-7.5%)

Ask Profit $-0.61 (-1.0%)

Bid Profit $-4.52 (-7.5%)

Liquidity Gap $3.91 (+6.5%)

Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.61

Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.52

Risk

Win Probability 40.0%

Loss Probability 60.0%

Best Case $138.17 (+130.8%)

Worst Case $9.87 (-83.5%)

Volatility +97.6%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%

Avg Win +$70.65

Avg Loss -$48.11

Bottom 5% Outcome $9.87 (-83.5%)

Std Dev $58.40

Avg Norm Float 0.1499

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 18m

Oldest Output Price 43h 47m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P90 | Wave Breaker

—

Minimal Wear

$1.58 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Wave Breaker

—

Minimal Wear

$1.64 Float: HIDDEN

Nova | Rising Sun

—

Minimal Wear

$1.77 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Tosai

—

Minimal Wear

$1.80 Float: HIDDEN

Nova | Rising Sun

—

Minimal Wear

$2.19 Float: HIDDEN

Nova | Rising Sun

—

Minimal Wear

$2.83 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

—

Field-Tested

$7.60 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

—

Field-Tested

$10.70 Float: HIDDEN

MAC-10 | Derailment

—

Minimal Wear

$14.87 Float: HIDDEN

MAC-10 | Derailment

—

Minimal Wear

$14.88 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 13M 13S //TOTAL COST $59.86 //ASK PRICE EV $59.25 //BID PRICE EV $55.34 //ASK PROFIT $-0.61 (-1.0%) //BID PROFIT $-4.52 (-7.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $138.17 //VOLATILITY +97.6% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Restricted|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Restricted|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.14992,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-e7d48237eb0f",
      "realistic_value": 138.1745,
      "optimistic_value": 134.51,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Hellish",
      "conservative_value": 128.66,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Hellish (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T16:35:55.105656Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e7d48237eb0f.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.14992,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9836cfa060f6",
      "realistic_value": 122.8545,
      "optimistic_value": 120.66,
      "output_full_name": "MP9 | Latte Rush",
      "conservative_value": 114.51,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T07:44:34.492918Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9836cfa060f6.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.14992,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-4c2e3face5fd",
      "realistic_value": 11.7125,
      "optimistic_value": 11.52,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Searing Rage",
      "conservative_value": 11.1,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:47.254204Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4c2e3face5fd.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.14992,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a7838b4ba71f",
      "realistic_value": 13.6635,
      "optimistic_value": 13.59,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Shinobu",
      "conservative_value": 12.78,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T17:49:22.444184Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7838b4ba71f.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.14992,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-5a6a2858b51d",
      "realistic_value": 9.867999999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 9.7,
      "output_full_name": "UMP-45 | K.O. Factory",
      "conservative_value": 9.67,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:20.847531Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a6a2858b51d.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_d401c8629d0d4f0f8da0af7b",
  "input_rarity": "Restricted",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 1.58,
      "skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
      "listing_id": "503983642533082915",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:04:59.502513Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.64,
      "skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
      "listing_id": "491598743580616670",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:04:59.502513Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.77,
      "skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
      "listing_id": "508487242222317062",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:10.316601Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.8,
      "skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
      "listing_id": "517494336190411078",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:47.215876Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
      "listing_id": "516367691485041578",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:10.316601Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.83,
      "skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
      "listing_id": "517493591328840346",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:10.316601Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 7.6,
      "skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "listing_id": "508487242221829046",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:11.795154Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 10.7,
      "skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "listing_id": "493850543432341336",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:11.795154Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 14.87,
      "skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "listing_id": "518620288314526672",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:35.055034Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 14.88,
      "skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "listing_id": "515242588555243825",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:35.055034Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Classified",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:6+collection-set-train-2025:4"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Fever Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 20.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 20.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 20.0% $50.78 Shinobu 20.0% $49.39 K.O. Factory 20.0% $34.29	$597.10 +262.9%	$205.20 +24.7%	40.0%	+132.9%	$164.52	—
The Fever Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested	Hellish 20.0% $64.09 Latte Rush 20.0% $41.81 Shinobu 20.0% $7.29 Searing Rage 20.0% $6.87 K.O. Factory 20.0% $6.47	$64.09 +170.0%	$25.31 +6.6%	40.0%	+99.6%	$23.74	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Fever Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 25.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 16.7% $50.78 Shinobu 16.7% $49.39 K.O. Factory 16.7% $34.39	$597.10 +209.4%	$245.31 +27.1%	50.0%	+117.8%	$192.99	—
The Fever Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 30.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 30.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 13.3% $50.78 Shinobu 13.3% $49.39 K.O. Factory 13.3% $34.29	$597.10 +163.3%	$285.39 +25.9%	60.0%	+100.9%	$226.74	—
The Fever Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 15.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 15.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 23.3% $50.78 Shinobu 23.3% $49.39 K.O. Factory 23.3% $34.29	$597.10 +348.4%	$165.10 +24.0%	30.0%	+151.4%	$133.16	—
The Fever Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 35.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 10.0% $50.78 Shinobu 10.0% $49.39 K.O. Factory 10.0% $34.39	$597.10 +127.4%	$325.50 +23.9%	70.0%	+85.0%	$262.62	—
The Fever Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear	Hellish 5.0% $138.17 Latte Rush 5.0% $122.85 Shinobu 30.0% $13.66 Searing Rage 30.0% $11.88 K.O. Factory 30.0% $9.69	$138.17 +607.9%	$23.62 +21.0%	10.0%	+183.1%	$19.52	—
The Fever Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 40.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 6.7% $50.78 Shinobu 6.7% $49.39 K.O. Factory 6.7% $34.29	$597.10 +96.3%	$365.58 +20.2%	40.0%	+69.0%	$304.17	—
The Fever Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested	Hellish 10.0% $64.09 Latte Rush 10.0% $41.26 Searing Rage 26.7% $7.26 Shinobu 26.7% $6.95 K.O. Factory 26.7% $6.52	$64.09 +358.1%	$16.06 +14.8%	20.0%	+135.9%	$13.99	—
The Fever Collection ×1+The Train 2025 Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 45.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 45.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 3.3% $50.78 Shinobu 3.3% $49.39 K.O. Factory 3.3% $34.29	$597.10 +69.0%	$405.68 +14.8%	45.0%	+53.0%	$353.37	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Fever Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Whiteout 16.7% $9.68 Charged Up 16.7% $7.44 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Rising Sun 10.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 10.0% $0.77 Control 10.0% $0.77	$9.68 +183.9%	$4.42 +29.6%	50.0%	+98.7%	$3.41	—