The Fever Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4
Restricted → Classified FN 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Inputs
Wave Breaker
2x $10.01
Tosai
1x $15.66
Serpent Strike
1x $16.48
Control
2x $17.03
Whiteout
3x $13.99
Derailment
1x $14.88
↓
Possible Outputs
Hellish
20.0% $597.10
Latte Rush
20.0% $294.44
Searing Rage
20.0% $50.78
Shinobu
20.0% $49.17
K.O. Factory
20.0% $34.39
Max Win
$597.10 (+279.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$205.18 (+30.5%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+139.0%
Cost
$157.26
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $157.26
Ask Price EV $205.18 (+30.5%)
Bid Price EV $183.03 (+16.4%)
Ask Profit $47.92 (+30.5%)
Bid Profit $25.77 (+16.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $22.15 (+14.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$47.92
Bid Slippage Buffer +$25.77
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $597.10 (+279.7%)
Worst Case $34.39 (-78.1%)
Volatility +139.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$288.51
Avg Loss -$112.48
Bottom 5% Outcome $34.39 (-78.1%)
Std Dev $218.59
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 150h 20m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Wave Breaker
—
Factory New
$10.01 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Wave Breaker
—
Factory New
$12.65 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Tosai
—
Factory New
$15.66 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike
—
Factory New
$16.48 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Control
—
Factory New
$17.03 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Control
—
Factory New
$17.72 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Whiteout
—
Field-Tested
$13.99 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Derailment
—
Minimal Wear
$14.88 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Whiteout
—
Field-Tested
$18.75 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Whiteout
—
Field-Tested
$20.09 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 05M 35S //TOTAL COST $157.26 //ASK PRICE EV $205.18 //BID PRICE EV $183.03 //ASK PROFIT $47.92 (+30.5%) //BID PROFIT $25.77 (+16.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $597.10 //VOLATILITY +139.0% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$597.10
+$439.84
+279.7%
$524.10
+$366.84
+233.3%
$73.00
12.2%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$294.44
+$137.18
+87.2%
$258.53
+$101.27
+64.4%
$35.91
12.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$50.78
-$106.48
-67.7%
$49.80
-$107.46
-68.3%
$0.98
1.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$49.17
-$108.09
-68.7%
$48.66
-$108.60
-69.1%
$0.51
1.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$34.39
-$122.87
-78.1%
$34.06
-$123.20
-78.3%
$0.33
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Restricted|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Restricted|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e7d48237eb0f",
"realistic_value": 597.102,
"optimistic_value": 554.78,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Hellish",
"conservative_value": 524.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Hellish (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:32.488398Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e7d48237eb0f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9836cfa060f6",
"realistic_value": 294.4405,
"optimistic_value": 294.43,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Latte Rush",
"conservative_value": 258.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Latte Rush (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:56:36.220092Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9836cfa060f6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4c2e3face5fd",
"realistic_value": 50.784,
"optimistic_value": 50.63,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Searing Rage",
"conservative_value": 49.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Searing Rage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:52:06.931953Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4c2e3face5fd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a7838b4ba71f",
"realistic_value": 49.174499999999995,
"optimistic_value": 48.73,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Shinobu",
"conservative_value": 48.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Shinobu (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:50:04.723658Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7838b4ba71f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5a6a2858b51d",
"realistic_value": 34.3915,
"optimistic_value": 34.29,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | K.O. Factory",
"conservative_value": 34.06,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:36.374918Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a6a2858b51d.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d401c8629d0d4f0f8da0af7b",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 10.01,
"skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"listing_id": "500605837399059455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:46.859801Z"
},
{
"price": 12.65,
"skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"listing_id": "514116636505230954",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:46.859801Z"
},
{
"price": 15.66,
"skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"listing_id": "626703343141672576",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:26.653551Z"
},
{
"price": 16.48,
"skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"listing_id": "516367691473977914",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:55:11.997448Z"
},
{
"price": 17.03,
"skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"listing_id": "503983589620452295",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Control",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:55.343395Z"
},
{
"price": 17.72,
"skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"listing_id": "643593816526497757",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Control",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:55.343395Z"
},
{
"price": 13.99,
"skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"listing_id": "492724590626550033",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:53.533258Z"
},
{
"price": 14.88,
"skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"listing_id": "515242588555243825",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:39.728353Z"
},
{
"price": 18.75,
"skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"listing_id": "502857742726213048",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:53.533258Z"
},
{
"price": 20.09,
"skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"listing_id": "502857689863234600",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:53.533258Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:6+collection-set-train-2025:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Hellish 20.0% $64.09 Latte Rush 20.0% $41.40 Searing Rage 20.0% $6.99 Shinobu 20.0% $6.82 K.O. Factory 20.0% $6.60 | $64.09 +178.4% | $25.18 +9.4% | 40.0% | +102.6% | $23.02 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish 25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 25.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 16.7% $50.78 Shinobu 16.7% $49.17 K.O. Factory 16.7% $34.39 | $597.10 +208.8% | $245.28 +26.8% | 50.0% | +117.6% | $193.38 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish 30.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 30.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 13.3% $50.78 Shinobu 13.3% $49.17 K.O. Factory 13.3% $34.39 | $597.10 +163.1% | $285.38 +25.7% | 60.0% | +100.8% | $226.97 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish 35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 35.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 10.0% $50.78 Shinobu 10.0% $49.17 K.O. Factory 10.0% $34.39 | $597.10 +127.4% | $325.47 +23.9% | 70.0% | +85.0% | $262.62 | — |
The Fever Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish 15.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 15.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 23.3% $50.78 Shinobu 23.3% $49.17 K.O. Factory 23.3% $34.39 | $597.10 +337.6% | $165.08 +21.0% | 30.0% | +147.8% | $136.45 | — |
The Fever Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Hellish 10.0% $138.17 Latte Rush 10.0% $122.85 Shinobu 26.7% $13.66 Searing Rage 26.7% $12.04 K.O. Factory 26.7% $9.69 | $138.17 +363.1% | $35.54 +19.1% | 20.0% | +159.6% | $29.84 | — |
The Fever Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish 40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 40.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 6.7% $50.78 Shinobu 6.7% $49.17 K.O. Factory 6.7% $34.39 | $597.10 +93.5% | $365.57 +18.5% | 40.0% | +68.0% | $308.53 | — |
The Fever Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Hellish 5.0% $138.17 Latte Rush 5.0% $122.85 Shinobu 30.0% $13.66 Searing Rage 30.0% $12.04 K.O. Factory 30.0% $9.69 | $138.17 +568.8% | $23.67 +14.6% | 10.0% | +172.9% | $20.66 | — |
The Fever Collection ×1+The Train 2025 Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish 45.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 45.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 3.3% $50.78 Shinobu 3.3% $49.17 K.O. Factory 3.3% $34.39 | $597.10 +67.2% | $405.67 +13.6% | 45.0% | +52.5% | $357.07 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up  16.7% $7.46 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Rising Sun  10.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 10.0% $0.77 Control 10.0% $0.77 | $9.67 +175.6% | $4.42 +26.0% | 50.0% | +95.9% | $3.51 | — |