The Fever Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4

Restricted → Classified FT 10 items

Factory New +24.7%Field-Tested +6.6%Minimal Wear -1.0%Well-Worn -30.7%

Contract

Restricted → Classified Field-Tested

Inputs

Wave Breaker

3x $0.60

Rising Sun

3x $0.66

Whiteout

4x $4.02

↓

Possible Outputs

Hellish

20.0% $64.09

Latte Rush

20.0% $41.81

Shinobu

20.0% $7.29

Searing Rage

20.0% $6.87

K.O. Factory

20.0% $6.47

Max Win

$64.09 (+170.0%)

EV (ROI %)

$25.31 (+6.6%)

Win %

40.0%

Volatility

+99.6%

Cost

$23.74

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $23.74

Ask Price EV $25.31 (+6.6%)

Bid Price EV $23.88 (+0.6%)

Ask Profit $1.57 (+6.6%)

Bid Profit $0.14 (+0.6%)

Liquidity Gap $1.42 (+6.0%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.57

Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.14

Risk

Win Probability 40.0%

Loss Probability 60.0%

Best Case $64.09 (+170.0%)

Worst Case $6.47 (-72.7%)

Volatility +99.6%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%

Avg Win +$29.21

Avg Loss -$16.86

Bottom 5% Outcome $6.47 (-72.7%)

Std Dev $23.65

Avg Norm Float 0.3794

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 22m

Oldest Output Price 151h 23m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P90 | Wave Breaker

—

Well-Worn

$0.60 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Wave Breaker

—

Well-Worn

$0.63 Float: HIDDEN

Nova | Rising Sun

—

Well-Worn

$0.66 Float: HIDDEN

Nova | Rising Sun

—

Well-Worn

$0.69 Float: HIDDEN

Nova | Rising Sun

—

Well-Worn

$0.70 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Wave Breaker

—

Field-Tested

$0.78 Float: HIDDEN

Tec-9 | Whiteout

—

Battle-Scarred

$4.02 Float: HIDDEN

Tec-9 | Whiteout

—

Well-Worn

$5.20 Float: HIDDEN

Tec-9 | Whiteout

—

Well-Worn

$5.22 Float: HIDDEN

Tec-9 | Whiteout

—

Well-Worn

$5.24 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 13M 14S //TOTAL COST $23.74 //ASK PRICE EV $25.31 //BID PRICE EV $23.88 //ASK PROFIT $1.57 (+6.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.14 (+0.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $64.09 //VOLATILITY +99.6% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Restricted|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Restricted|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.3794,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-e7d48237eb0f",
      "realistic_value": 64.08749999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 64.07,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Hellish",
      "conservative_value": 58.73,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Hellish (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:59:54.419332Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e7d48237eb0f.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.3794,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9836cfa060f6",
      "realistic_value": 41.812000000000005,
      "optimistic_value": 41.7,
      "output_full_name": "MP9 | Latte Rush",
      "conservative_value": 40.82,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Latte Rush (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:18:56.590646Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9836cfa060f6.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.3794,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-4c2e3face5fd",
      "realistic_value": 6.8715,
      "optimistic_value": 6.7,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Searing Rage",
      "conservative_value": 6.64,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Searing Rage (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:58:33.550086Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4c2e3face5fd.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.3794,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a7838b4ba71f",
      "realistic_value": 7.2875,
      "optimistic_value": 7.27,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Shinobu",
      "conservative_value": 6.9,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Shinobu (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:02:51.258503Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7838b4ba71f.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
      "output_float": 0.3794,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-5a6a2858b51d",
      "realistic_value": 6.472,
      "optimistic_value": 6.36,
      "output_full_name": "UMP-45 | K.O. Factory",
      "conservative_value": 6.32,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:57:59.815794Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a6a2858b51d.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_d401c8629d0d4f0f8da0af7b",
  "input_rarity": "Restricted",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.6,
      "skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
      "listing_id": "510739041954328018",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:05:28.110617Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.63,
      "skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
      "listing_id": "518620341243342640",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:05:28.110617Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.66,
      "skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
      "listing_id": "520872141038305344",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:46.515598Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.69,
      "skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
      "listing_id": "501731842661307389",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:46.515598Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.7,
      "skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
      "listing_id": "514116741797283090",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:46.515598Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.78,
      "skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
      "listing_id": "497228137696117301",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:11:11.680636Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.02,
      "skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "listing_id": "493850543432460388",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:02:32.501817Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.2,
      "skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "listing_id": "492724643507571681",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:05:39.849143Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.22,
      "skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "listing_id": "517494441498298858",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:05:39.849143Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.24,
      "skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "listing_id": "493850543432321104",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:05:39.849143Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Classified",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:6+collection-set-train-2025:4"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Fever Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 20.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 20.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 20.0% $50.78 Shinobu 20.0% $49.39 K.O. Factory 20.0% $34.29	$597.10 +262.9%	$205.20 +24.7%	40.0%	+132.9%	$164.52	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Fever Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 25.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 16.7% $50.78 Shinobu 16.7% $49.39 K.O. Factory 16.7% $34.39	$597.10 +209.4%	$245.31 +27.1%	50.0%	+117.8%	$192.99	—
The Fever Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 30.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 30.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 13.3% $50.78 Shinobu 13.3% $49.39 K.O. Factory 13.3% $34.29	$597.10 +163.3%	$285.39 +25.9%	60.0%	+100.9%	$226.74	—
The Fever Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 15.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 15.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 23.3% $50.78 Shinobu 23.3% $49.39 K.O. Factory 23.3% $34.29	$597.10 +348.4%	$165.10 +24.0%	30.0%	+151.4%	$133.16	—
The Fever Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 35.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 10.0% $50.78 Shinobu 10.0% $49.39 K.O. Factory 10.0% $34.39	$597.10 +127.4%	$325.50 +23.9%	70.0%	+85.0%	$262.62	—
The Fever Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear	Hellish 5.0% $138.17 Latte Rush 5.0% $122.85 Shinobu 30.0% $13.66 Searing Rage 30.0% $11.88 K.O. Factory 30.0% $9.69	$138.17 +607.9%	$23.62 +21.0%	10.0%	+183.1%	$19.52	—
The Fever Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 40.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 6.7% $50.78 Shinobu 6.7% $49.39 K.O. Factory 6.7% $34.29	$597.10 +96.3%	$365.58 +20.2%	40.0%	+69.0%	$304.17	—
The Fever Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested	Hellish 10.0% $64.09 Latte Rush 10.0% $41.26 Searing Rage 26.7% $7.26 Shinobu 26.7% $6.95 K.O. Factory 26.7% $6.52	$64.09 +358.1%	$16.06 +14.8%	20.0%	+135.9%	$13.99	—
The Fever Collection ×1+The Train 2025 Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 45.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 45.0% $294.44 Searing Rage 3.3% $50.78 Shinobu 3.3% $49.39 K.O. Factory 3.3% $34.29	$597.10 +69.0%	$405.68 +14.8%	45.0%	+53.0%	$353.37	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Fever Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Whiteout 16.7% $9.68 Charged Up 16.7% $7.44 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Rising Sun 10.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 10.0% $0.77 Control 10.0% $0.77	$9.68 +183.9%	$4.42 +29.6%	50.0%	+98.7%	$3.41	—