The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Creep
2x $0.27
Copperflage
5x $0.14
Poplar Thicket
1x $0.15
Gold Leaf
2x $0.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
10.0% $5.85
Trace Lock
10.0% $2.39
Sheet Lightning
40.0% $1.71
Glockingbird
40.0% $1.52
Max Win
$5.85 (+149.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.12 (-9.9%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+54.0%
Cost
$2.35
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.35
Ask Price EV $2.12 (-9.9%)
Bid Price EV $1.92 (-18.5%)
Ask Profit $-0.23 (-9.9%)
Bid Profit $-0.43 (-18.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.20 (+8.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.23
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.43
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $5.85 (+149.0%)
Worst Case $1.52 (-35.3%)
Volatility +54.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$1.77
Avg Loss -$0.73
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.52 (-35.3%)
Std Dev $1.27
Avg Norm Float 0.4427
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 150h 11m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 18M 46S //TOTAL COST $2.35 //ASK PRICE EV $2.12 //BID PRICE EV $1.92 //ASK PROFIT $-0.23 (-9.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.43 (-18.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +54.0% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$5.85
+$3.50
+149.0%
$4.91
+$2.56
+108.9%
$0.94
16.1%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$2.39
+$0.04
+1.8%
$2.13
-$0.22
-9.4%
$0.26
10.9%
—
LOSS
40.0%
$1.71
-$0.64
-27.1%
$1.58
-$0.77
-32.8%
$0.13
7.8%
—
LOSS
40.0%
$1.52
-$0.83
-35.3%
$1.45
-$0.90
-38.3%
$0.07
4.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.2966224,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 1.521,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 1.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:29:04.053888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.33204,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 1.714,
"optimistic_value": 1.7,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 1.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T03:16:00.439567Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.33204,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.30990399999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.3915,
"optimistic_value": 2.36,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:14.489741Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d3698eb4c67e95738e03d831",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "525375740885697199",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:19.177282Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "514116688950863706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:19.177282Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "525375740885161051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:49.203375Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "519746241188787092",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:16:53.673638Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "510739041953966722",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:19:16.419032Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "521998040962350366",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:19:16.419032Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "510739041954090058",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:19:38.395404Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "514116523133772618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:19:38.395404Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "494976443342176350",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:28.291504Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "519746241188606228",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:28.291504Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:2+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $5.26 Trace Lock 10.0% $5.01 Glockingbird 40.0% $3.69 | $12.25 +173.3% | $5.31 +18.5% | 60.0% | +54.1% | $4.48 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 10.0% $26.93 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $17.31 Trace Lock 10.0% $14.30 Glockingbird 40.0% $11.97 | $26.93 +95.1% | $15.83 +14.7% | 60.0% | +31.9% | $13.80 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Boreal Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 5.0% $5.15 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.40 Glockingbird 5.0% $3.69 | $12.25 +93.1% | $7.93 +25.1% | 45.0% | +61.6% | $6.34 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.26 Trace Lock 15.0% $5.01 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.69 | $12.25 +167.4% | $5.72 +24.9% | 65.0% | +61.7% | $4.58 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 5.0% $26.93 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $17.31 Trace Lock 5.0% $14.30 Glockingbird 45.0% $11.97 | $26.93 +97.4% | $15.23 +11.7% | 55.0% | +27.1% | $13.64 | — |