The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items

Battle-Scarred -6.3%Factory New -18.6%Field-Tested +23.0%Minimal Wear +13.6%Well-Worn -13.2%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred

Inputs

Aeolian Light

1x $0.26

Creep

1x $0.27

Copperflage

2x $0.14

Poplar Thicket

2x $0.14

Gold Leaf

4x $0.17

↓

Possible Outputs

Breakthrough

10.0% $5.85

Trace Lock

10.0% $2.31

Sheet Lightning

40.0% $1.71

Glockingbird

40.0% $1.54

Max Win

$5.85 (+158.9%)

EV (ROI %)

$2.12 (-6.3%)

Win %

20.0%

Volatility

+55.9%

Cost

$2.26

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $2.26

Ask Price EV $2.12 (-6.3%)

Bid Price EV $1.92 (-15.2%)

Ask Profit $-0.14 (-6.3%)

Bid Profit $-0.34 (-15.2%)

Liquidity Gap $0.20 (+8.9%)

Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.14

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.34

Risk

Win Probability 20.0%

Loss Probability 80.0%

Best Case $5.85 (+158.9%)

Worst Case $1.54 (-31.8%)

Volatility +55.9%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%

Avg Win +$1.82

Avg Loss -$0.63

Bottom 5% Outcome $1.54 (-31.8%)

Std Dev $1.26

Avg Norm Float 0.5003

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 20m

Oldest Output Price 151h 21m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Tight

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.26 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Creep

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.27 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | Copperflage

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.14 Float: HIDDEN

MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.14 Float: HIDDEN

MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.15 Float: HIDDEN

MP5-SD | Gold Leaf

—

Field-Tested

$0.17 Float: HIDDEN

MP5-SD | Gold Leaf

—

Field-Tested

$0.18 Float: HIDDEN

MP5-SD | Gold Leaf

—

Field-Tested

$0.19 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | Copperflage

—

Minimal Wear

$0.37 Float: HIDDEN

MP5-SD | Gold Leaf

—

Minimal Wear

$0.39 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 32M 54S //TOTAL COST $2.26 //ASK PRICE EV $2.12 //BID PRICE EV $1.92 //ASK PROFIT $-0.14 (-6.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.34 (-15.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +55.9% //

Possible Outputs · 4

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.33520099999999997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
      "realistic_value": 1.5405,
      "optimistic_value": 1.53,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
      "conservative_value": 1.45,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:15.777076Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.375225,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
      "realistic_value": 1.714,
      "optimistic_value": 1.7,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
      "conservative_value": 1.58,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T03:16:00.439567Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.375225,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
      "realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 5.77,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
      "conservative_value": 4.91,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.35020999999999997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
      "realistic_value": 2.307,
      "optimistic_value": 2.3,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
      "conservative_value": 2.13,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:05.167496Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_d3698eb4c67e95738e03d831",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.26,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "511864941881349645",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:34:48.076882Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "520872141038059176",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:42:33.740227Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.14,
      "skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
      "listing_id": "525375740885161051",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:16.055737Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.14,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "521998040962871826",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:26.222132Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.15,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "519746241188787092",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:26.222132Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.17,
      "skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
      "listing_id": "659356415311487950",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:30:34.149158Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
      "listing_id": "510739041954090058",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:30:34.149158Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
      "listing_id": "514116523133772618",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:30:34.149158Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
      "listing_id": "503983642533029923",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:22.845754Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.39,
      "skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
      "listing_id": "494976443342359266",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:21.308333Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:2+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:8"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $5.37 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.57 Glockingbird 40.0% $3.55	$12.25 +186.8%	$5.25 +23.0%	60.0%	+57.9%	$4.27	—
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Breakthrough 10.0% $26.93 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $17.10 Trace Lock 10.0% $14.30 Glockingbird 40.0% $11.94	$26.93 +94.3%	$15.74 +13.6%	60.0%	+31.6%	$13.86	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Boreal Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Breakthrough 45.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 45.0% $3.20 Sheet Lightning 5.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 5.0% $1.53	$6.12 +84.8%	$4.37 +32.0%	45.0%	+49.4%	$3.31	—
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.37 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.57 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.74	$12.25 +175.2%	$5.71 +28.4%	65.0%	+63.5%	$4.45	—
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 5.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $5.37 Trace Lock 5.0% $4.57 Glockingbird 45.0% $3.74	$12.25 +197.9%	$4.94 +20.3%	55.0%	+44.9%	$4.11	—