The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Grip Tape
1x $2.13
The Daily Deagle
1x $3.00
Copperflage
2x $0.64
Poplar Thicket
6x $0.97
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
10.0% $26.93
Sheet Lightning
40.0% $17.31
Trace Lock
10.0% $14.30
Glockingbird
40.0% $11.97
Max Win
$26.93 (+37.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$15.83 (-19.0%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+22.5%
Cost
$19.55
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.55
Ask Price EV $15.83 (-19.0%)
Bid Price EV $15.50 (-20.7%)
Ask Profit $-3.72 (-19.0%)
Bid Profit $-4.05 (-20.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.33 (+1.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.72
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.05
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+37.7%)
Worst Case $11.97 (-38.8%)
Volatility +22.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$7.38
Avg Loss -$4.95
Bottom 5% Outcome $11.97 (-38.8%)
Std Dev $4.40
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 11h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.13 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.64 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.97 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Factory New
$1.29 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.54 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.55 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$3.68 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 18M 20S //TOTAL COST $19.55 //ASK PRICE EV $15.83 //BID PRICE EV $15.50 //ASK PROFIT $-3.72 (-19.0%) //BID PROFIT $-4.05 (-20.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +22.5% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
10.0%
$26.93
+$7.38
+37.7%
$26.63
+$7.08
+36.2%
$0.30
1.1%
—
LOSS
40.0%
$17.31
-$2.24
-11.5%
$17.09
-$2.46
-12.6%
$0.22
1.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$14.30
-$5.25
-26.8%
$13.19
-$6.36
-32.5%
$1.11
7.8%
—
LOSS
40.0%
$11.97
-$7.58
-38.8%
$11.70
-$7.85
-40.2%
$0.27
2.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.04668560000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 11.967,
"optimistic_value": 11.96,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 11.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:19.633677Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.05226,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 17.306,
"optimistic_value": 17.11,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 17.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:36.487209Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.05226,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048776,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 14.302,
"optimistic_value": 14.12,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:05.804832Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d3698eb4c67e95738e03d831",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.13,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "496102343225786159",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:12.181708Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:22.173639Z"
},
{
"price": 0.64,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "492724643507492625",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:28.291504Z"
},
{
"price": 0.97,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "516368322946009778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:34.738929Z"
},
{
"price": 1.29,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "521998040962606182",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:35.082911Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "502857689862180880",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:55.609296Z"
},
{
"price": 1.54,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "527627487624113108",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:55.609296Z"
},
{
"price": 1.55,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "518620288314275428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:55.609296Z"
},
{
"price": 3.22,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "512990623223766251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:55.609296Z"
},
{
"price": 3.68,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "517493591330950090",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:55.609296Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:2+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $5.26 Trace Lock 10.0% $5.01 Glockingbird 40.0% $3.69 | $12.25 +173.3% | $5.31 +18.5% | 60.0% | +54.1% | $4.48 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 10.0% $26.93 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $17.31 Trace Lock 10.0% $14.30 Glockingbird 40.0% $11.97 | $26.93 +95.1% | $15.83 +14.7% | 60.0% | +31.9% | $13.80 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Boreal Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 5.0% $5.15 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.40 Glockingbird 5.0% $3.69 | $12.25 +93.1% | $7.93 +25.1% | 45.0% | +61.6% | $6.34 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.26 Trace Lock 15.0% $5.01 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.69 | $12.25 +167.4% | $5.72 +24.9% | 65.0% | +61.7% | $4.58 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 5.0% $26.93 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $17.31 Trace Lock 5.0% $14.30 Glockingbird 45.0% $11.97 | $26.93 +97.4% | $15.23 +11.7% | 55.0% | +27.1% | $13.64 | — |