The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Aeolian Light
2x $0.70
Copperflage
3x $0.17
Gold Leaf
2x $0.18
Poplar Thicket
3x $0.50
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
10.0% $12.25
Sheet Lightning
40.0% $5.26
Trace Lock
10.0% $4.22
Glockingbird
40.0% $3.86
Max Win
$12.25 (+161.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.30 (+12.9%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+51.2%
Cost
$4.69
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.69
Ask Price EV $5.30 (+12.9%)
Bid Price EV $4.90 (+4.6%)
Ask Profit $0.61 (+12.9%)
Bid Profit $0.21 (+4.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.39 (+8.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.61
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.21
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $12.25 (+161.1%)
Worst Case $3.86 (-17.8%)
Volatility +51.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$1.97
Avg Loss -$0.76
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.86 (-17.8%)
Std Dev $2.40
Avg Norm Float 0.1984
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 149h 34m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 29M 01S //TOTAL COST $4.69 //ASK PRICE EV $5.30 //BID PRICE EV $4.90 //ASK PROFIT $0.61 (+12.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.21 (+4.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $12.25 //VOLATILITY +51.2% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$12.25
+$7.56
+161.1%
$11.36
+$6.67
+142.2%
$0.89
7.2%
—
SMALL WIN
40.0%
$5.26
+$0.57
+12.2%
$5.07
+$0.38
+8.1%
$0.19
3.7%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$4.22
-$0.47
-10.0%
$4.16
-$0.53
-11.3%
$0.06
1.5%
—
LOSS
40.0%
$3.86
-$0.83
-17.8%
$3.31
-$1.38
-29.4%
$0.55
14.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.13292130000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 3.857,
"optimistic_value": 3.85,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 3.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:25.695127Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.1487925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 5.264,
"optimistic_value": 5.25,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 5.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:33.797580Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1487925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.14,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.138873,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.2225,
"optimistic_value": 4.17,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:52:49.525526Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d3698eb4c67e95738e03d831",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "524249840858848503",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:49.788341Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "529879340431745328",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:49.788341Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "521998040962350366",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:55.340627Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "496102290328703183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:55.787155Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "514116523133772618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:55.787155Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "519746241188606228",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:46.226993Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "499479989895403681",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:21.482705Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "520872141037740540",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:46.226993Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "509613089305639647",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:21.482705Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "509613089303443359",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:21.482705Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:2+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 10.0% $26.93 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $17.66 Trace Lock 10.0% $14.65 Glockingbird 40.0% $11.97 | $26.93 +91.1% | $16.01 +13.6% | 60.0% | +31.5% | $14.09 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.26 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.22 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.86 | $12.25 +148.9% | $6.40 +30.0% | 50.0% | +69.4% | $4.92 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 20.0% $5.19 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.29 Glockingbird 20.0% $3.87 | $12.25 +135.0% | $6.77 +30.0% | 30.0% | +69.3% | $5.21 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 15.0% $5.26 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.22 Glockingbird 15.0% $3.86 | $12.25 +121.0% | $7.13 +28.7% | 35.0% | +68.1% | $5.54 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Boreal Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 10.0% $5.26 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.22 Glockingbird 10.0% $3.86 | $12.25 +108.6% | $7.50 +27.8% | 40.0% | +66.3% | $5.87 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.26 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.29 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.87 | $12.25 +157.8% | $6.05 +27.3% | 50.0% | +66.3% | $4.75 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Boreal Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 5.0% $5.26 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.29 Glockingbird 5.0% $3.87 | $12.25 +93.1% | $7.90 +24.6% | 45.0% | +62.1% | $6.34 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.26 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.22 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.86 | $12.25 +162.8% | $5.66 +21.5% | 50.0% | +60.7% | $4.66 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 5.0% $26.93 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $17.66 Trace Lock 5.0% $14.65 Glockingbird 45.0% $11.97 | $26.93 +94.6% | $15.41 +11.4% | 55.0% | +27.3% | $13.84 | — |