The Recoil Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Destroyer
3x $0.13
Poly Mag
2x $0.13
Aeolian Light
4x $0.25
Grip Tape
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
25.0% $5.85
Trace Lock
25.0% $2.24
Crazy 8
10.0% $0.71
Vent Rush
10.0% $0.70
Dragon Tech
10.0% $0.69
Flora Carnivora
10.0% $0.69
Max Win
$5.85 (+168.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.37 (+8.7%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+96.6%
Cost
$2.18
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.18
Ask Price EV $2.37 (+8.7%)
Bid Price EV $2.07 (-5.1%)
Ask Profit $0.19 (+8.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.11 (-5.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.30 (+13.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.19
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.11
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $5.85 (+168.4%)
Worst Case $0.67 (-69.2%)
Volatility +96.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$1.86
Avg Loss -$1.49
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.67 (-69.2%)
Std Dev $2.11
Avg Norm Float 0.4406
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 141h 34m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 19M 21S //TOTAL COST $2.18 //ASK PRICE EV $2.37 //BID PRICE EV $2.07 //ASK PROFIT $0.19 (+8.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.11 (-5.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +96.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$5.85
+$3.67
+168.4%
$4.91
+$2.73
+125.2%
$0.94
16.1%
—
PAPER WIN
25.0%
$2.24
+$0.06
+2.7%
$2.14
-$0.04
-1.8%
$0.10
4.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.71
-$1.47
-67.3%
$0.57
-$1.61
-73.9%
$0.14
20.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.70
-$1.48
-67.7%
$0.61
-$1.57
-72.0%
$0.09
13.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.69
-$1.49
-68.2%
$0.62
-$1.56
-71.6%
$0.07
10.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.69
-$1.49
-68.3%
$0.66
-$1.52
-69.7%
$0.03
4.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.67
-$1.51
-69.2%
$0.61
-$1.57
-72.0%
$0.06
9.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.3304875,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.308455,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.2395,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:24:20.382207Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.44065,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 0.69,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T22:50:29.393112Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.2864225,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 0.6705,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:27:35.319243Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.308455,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 0.7034999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:32:58.063801Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.44065,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 0.7134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T22:39:07.418782Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.308455,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 0.6934999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:40:33.447440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d07b8a134f3e15d3eaf9fe0c",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "525375688036987819",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:51.681694Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "529879287550866924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:35:00.031090Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "514116636507038622",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:51.681694Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "525374890937807815",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:51.681694Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "492724538183414529",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:35:00.031090Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "526501587737062601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:06.984080Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368488724825018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:06.984080Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "508487136897723158",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:06.984080Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "493850490550151956",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:06.984080Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "500605889841196571",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:33.256443Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:5+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.51 Dragon Tech 10.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 10.0% $1.18 Downtown 10.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 10.0% $0.80 | $12.25 +218.9% | $4.69 +22.2% | 50.0% | +115.1% | $3.84 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 25.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 25.0% $14.83 Dragon Tech 10.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 10.0% $4.20 Downtown 10.0% $3.53 Flora Carnivora 10.0% $1.74 | $26.93 +164.0% | $12.00 +17.6% | 50.0% | +91.6% | $10.20 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.48 Dragon Tech 14.0% $1.32 Vent Rush 14.0% $1.12 Downtown 14.0% $1.09 Crazy 8 14.0% $0.79 | $12.25 +378.3% | $3.22 +25.7% | 30.0% | +151.5% | $2.56 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 45.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 45.0% $15.24 Dragon Tech 2.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 2.0% $4.20 Downtown 2.0% $3.53 Flora Carnivora 2.0% $1.74 | $26.93 +71.9% | $19.29 +23.2% | 45.0% | +46.8% | $15.66 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.51 Dragon Tech 8.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 8.0% $1.18 Downtown 8.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 8.0% $0.80 | $12.25 +177.7% | $5.43 +23.1% | 60.0% | +102.1% | $4.41 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.51 Dragon Tech 6.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 6.0% $1.21 Downtown 6.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 6.0% $0.80 | $12.25 +141.0% | $6.17 +21.4% | 35.0% | +88.3% | $5.08 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.51 Dragon Tech 12.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 12.0% $1.21 Downtown 12.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 12.0% $0.80 | $12.25 +274.5% | $3.96 +21.1% | 40.0% | +129.0% | $3.27 | — |