The Recoil Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Poly Mag
1x $0.15
Winterized
2x $0.18
Destroyer
1x $0.25
Roadblock
1x $0.29
Grip Tape
1x $0.34
Aeolian Light
3x $0.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
25.0% $12.25
Trace Lock
25.0% $4.51
Dragon Tech
10.0% $1.30
Vent Rush
10.0% $1.12
Downtown
10.0% $1.09
Crazy 8
10.0% $0.78
Max Win
$12.25 (+233.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.69 (+27.8%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+125.1%
Cost
$3.67
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.67
Ask Price EV $4.69 (+27.8%)
Bid Price EV $4.33 (+17.9%)
Ask Profit $1.02 (+27.8%)
Bid Profit $0.66 (+17.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.36 (+9.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.02
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.66
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $12.25 (+233.7%)
Worst Case $0.74 (-79.9%)
Volatility +125.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$4.71
Avg Loss -$2.66
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.74 (-79.9%)
Std Dev $4.59
Avg Norm Float 0.1995
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 140h 54m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 18M 42S //TOTAL COST $3.67 //ASK PRICE EV $4.69 //BID PRICE EV $4.33 //ASK PROFIT $1.02 (+27.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.66 (+17.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $12.25 //VOLATILITY +125.1% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$12.25
+$8.58
+233.7%
$11.36
+$7.69
+209.5%
$0.89
7.2%
—
WIN
25.0%
$4.51
+$0.84
+22.9%
$4.10
+$0.43
+11.7%
$0.41
9.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.30
-$2.37
-64.6%
$1.12
-$2.55
-69.5%
$0.18
13.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.12
-$2.55
-69.4%
$1.08
-$2.59
-70.6%
$0.04
3.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.09
-$2.58
-70.2%
$1.03
-$2.64
-71.9%
$0.06
5.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.78
-$2.89
-78.7%
$0.70
-$2.97
-80.9%
$0.08
10.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.74
-$2.93
-79.9%
$0.69
-$2.98
-81.2%
$0.05
6.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.14965499999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.14,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.139678,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.5089999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 4.46,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:43.836405Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19954,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 0.7375,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:59.328649Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.129701,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 1.0935000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.09,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 1.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:39.479950Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.139678,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 1.124,
"optimistic_value": 1.11,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 1.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:40.924998Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19954,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 0.7805,
"optimistic_value": 0.77,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:44.707957Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.139678,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 1.2975,
"optimistic_value": 1.28,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:54:09.721042Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d07b8a134f3e15d3eaf9fe0c",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "492724538183414529",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:43:36.642365Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "510738823411159930",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:04.173140Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "509613089304682875",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:04.092162Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "499479989895563665",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:59.960123Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "492724538183456433",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:38.460331Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "500605889841196571",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:42.494799Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "498354089953069411",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:40.140144Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "524249787961717575",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:45.054480Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368488725516146",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:28.913662Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "492724590626126853",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:28.913662Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:5+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 25.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 25.0% $15.24 Dragon Tech 10.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 10.0% $4.20 Downtown 10.0% $3.53 Flora Carnivora 10.0% $1.75 | $26.93 +164.0% | $12.10 +18.6% | 50.0% | +91.8% | $10.20 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 25.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.17 Crazy 8 10.0% $0.71 Vent Rush 10.0% $0.70 Flora Carnivora 10.0% $0.69 Downtown 10.0% $0.69 | $5.85 +169.6% | $2.35 +8.3% | 25.0% | +94.0% | $2.17 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.51 Dragon Tech 8.0% $1.30 Vent Rush 8.0% $1.12 Downtown 8.0% $1.09 Crazy 8 8.0% $0.78 | $12.25 +188.1% | $5.43 +27.7% | 60.0% | +105.9% | $4.25 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.51 Dragon Tech 6.0% $1.30 Vent Rush 6.0% $1.12 Downtown 6.0% $1.09 Crazy 8 6.0% $0.79 | $12.25 +152.5% | $6.17 +27.1% | 35.0% | +92.5% | $4.85 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.51 Dragon Tech 12.0% $1.32 Vent Rush 12.0% $1.12 Downtown 12.0% $1.09 Crazy 8 12.0% $0.79 | $12.25 +292.5% | $3.96 +26.9% | 40.0% | +135.2% | $3.12 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.45 Dragon Tech 4.0% $1.32 Vent Rush 4.0% $1.12 Downtown 4.0% $1.09 Flora Carnivora 4.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +120.6% | $6.88 +24.0% | 40.0% | +79.1% | $5.55 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.57 Dragon Tech 2.0% $1.25 Vent Rush 2.0% $1.12 Downtown 2.0% $1.09 Flora Carnivora 2.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +96.9% | $7.66 +23.2% | 45.0% | +66.8% | $6.22 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.57 Dragon Tech 14.0% $1.32 Vent Rush 14.0% $1.12 Downtown 14.0% $1.09 Flora Carnivora 14.0% $0.77 | $12.25 +367.4% | $3.22 +23.1% | 30.0% | +148.2% | $2.62 | — |