The Recoil Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Roadblock
2x $0.31
Meow 36
1x $0.47
Winterized
1x $0.61
Destroyer
1x $2.01
Grip Tape
3x $0.87
Aeolian Light
1x $0.94
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
25.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
25.0% $14.83
Dragon Tech
10.0% $4.38
Vent Rush
10.0% $4.20
Downtown
10.0% $3.53
Flora Carnivora
10.0% $1.74
Max Win
$26.93 (+164.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$12.00 (+17.6%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+97.0%
Cost
$10.20
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $10.20
Ask Price EV $12.00 (+17.6%)
Bid Price EV $11.48 (+12.5%)
Ask Profit $1.80 (+17.6%)
Bid Profit $1.28 (+12.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.52 (+5.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.80
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.28
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+164.0%)
Worst Case $1.72 (-83.1%)
Volatility +97.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$10.68
Avg Loss -$7.09
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.72 (-83.1%)
Std Dev $9.89
Avg Norm Float 0.0933
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 3h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Meow 36
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$2.01 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.99 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 19M 21S //TOTAL COST $10.20 //ASK PRICE EV $12.00 //BID PRICE EV $11.48 //ASK PROFIT $1.80 (+17.6%) //BID PROFIT $1.28 (+12.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +97.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$26.93
+$16.73
+164.0%
$26.63
+$16.43
+161.1%
$0.30
1.1%
—
WIN
25.0%
$14.83
+$4.63
+45.4%
$13.15
+$2.95
+28.9%
$1.68
11.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.38
-$5.82
-57.1%
$4.37
-$5.83
-57.2%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.20
-$6.00
-58.8%
$4.19
-$6.01
-58.9%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.53
-$6.67
-65.4%
$3.52
-$6.68
-65.5%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.74
-$8.46
-82.9%
$1.61
-$8.59
-84.2%
$0.13
7.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.72
-$8.48
-83.1%
$1.63
-$8.57
-84.0%
$0.09
5.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.0699675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.065303,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 14.8345,
"optimistic_value": 14.81,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:21.518147Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09329,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 1.7435,
"optimistic_value": 1.74,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 1.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:38:51.337439Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0606385,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 3.53,
"optimistic_value": 3.53,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 3.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:18.037593Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.065303,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 4.2,
"optimistic_value": 4.2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 4.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:18:56.941960Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09329,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 1.72,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:10:30.319693Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.065303,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 4.38,
"optimistic_value": 4.38,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 4.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:58.902330Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d07b8a134f3e15d3eaf9fe0c",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "518620235869857460",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:51:28.875924Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "525375522203724595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:51:28.875924Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-14669f15615e",
"listing_id": "651475115893292082",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Meow 36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-14669f15615e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:24.611838Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "518620288313023888",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:09.908459Z"
},
{
"price": 2.01,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "635712445338920863",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:22.165417Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "506235337025136948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:32.641458Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620288313427412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:33.949346Z"
},
{
"price": 0.99,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "652600943945535924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:32.641458Z"
},
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "507361289453312365",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.777284Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "520872088106613300",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:46.808216Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:5+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.51 Dragon Tech 10.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 10.0% $1.18 Downtown 10.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 10.0% $0.80 | $12.25 +218.9% | $4.69 +22.2% | 50.0% | +115.1% | $3.84 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 25.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.24 Crazy 8 10.0% $0.71 Vent Rush 10.0% $0.70 Dragon Tech 10.0% $0.69 Flora Carnivora 10.0% $0.69 | $5.85 +168.4% | $2.37 +8.7% | 50.0% | +93.4% | $2.18 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.48 Dragon Tech 14.0% $1.32 Vent Rush 14.0% $1.12 Downtown 14.0% $1.09 Crazy 8 14.0% $0.79 | $12.25 +378.3% | $3.22 +25.7% | 30.0% | +151.5% | $2.56 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 45.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 45.0% $15.24 Dragon Tech 2.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 2.0% $4.20 Downtown 2.0% $3.53 Flora Carnivora 2.0% $1.74 | $26.93 +71.9% | $19.29 +23.2% | 45.0% | +46.8% | $15.66 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.51 Dragon Tech 8.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 8.0% $1.18 Downtown 8.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 8.0% $0.80 | $12.25 +177.7% | $5.43 +23.1% | 60.0% | +102.1% | $4.41 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.51 Dragon Tech 6.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 6.0% $1.21 Downtown 6.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 6.0% $0.80 | $12.25 +141.0% | $6.17 +21.4% | 35.0% | +88.3% | $5.08 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.51 Dragon Tech 12.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 12.0% $1.21 Downtown 12.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 12.0% $0.80 | $12.25 +274.5% | $3.96 +21.1% | 40.0% | +129.0% | $3.27 | — |