The Recoil Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Meow 36
1x $0.47
Winterized
1x $0.61
Destroyer
3x $1.86
Aeolian Light
1x $0.94
Grip Tape
2x $0.99
Creep
1x $1.43
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
25.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
25.0% $14.83
Crazy 8
10.0% $10.95
Flora Carnivora
10.0% $10.55
Dragon Tech
10.0% $4.38
Vent Rush
10.0% $4.20
Max Win
$26.93 (+73.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$13.80 (-10.9%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+55.5%
Cost
$15.49
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $15.49
Ask Price EV $13.80 (-10.9%)
Bid Price EV $13.27 (-14.3%)
Ask Profit $-1.69 (-10.9%)
Bid Profit $-2.22 (-14.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.53 (+3.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.69
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.22
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+73.8%)
Worst Case $3.53 (-77.2%)
Volatility +55.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$11.44
Avg Loss -$6.06
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.53 (-77.2%)
Std Dev $8.59
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 3h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
FAMAS | Meow 36
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$2.01 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.99 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 18M 59S //TOTAL COST $15.49 //ASK PRICE EV $13.80 //BID PRICE EV $13.27 //ASK PROFIT $-1.69 (-10.9%) //BID PROFIT $-2.22 (-14.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +55.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$26.93
+$11.44
+73.8%
$26.63
+$11.14
+71.9%
$0.30
1.1%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$14.83
-$0.66
-4.2%
$13.15
-$2.34
-15.1%
$1.68
11.4%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$10.95
-$4.54
-29.3%
$10.89
-$4.60
-29.7%
$0.06
0.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$10.55
-$4.94
-31.9%
$10.30
-$5.19
-33.5%
$0.25
2.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.38
-$11.11
-71.7%
$4.37
-$11.12
-71.8%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.20
-$11.29
-72.9%
$4.19
-$11.30
-73.0%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.53
-$11.96
-77.2%
$3.52
-$11.97
-77.3%
$0.01
0.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.05235,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.04886,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 14.8345,
"optimistic_value": 14.81,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:21.518147Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0698,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 10.5525,
"optimistic_value": 10.5,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 10.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:02.984249Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.04537,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 3.53,
"optimistic_value": 3.53,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 3.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:18.037593Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.04886,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 4.2,
"optimistic_value": 4.2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 4.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:18:56.941960Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0698,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 10.949,
"optimistic_value": 10.9,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 10.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:53:53.223648Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.04886,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 4.38,
"optimistic_value": 4.38,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 4.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:58.902330Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d07b8a134f3e15d3eaf9fe0c",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-14669f15615e",
"listing_id": "651475115893292082",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Meow 36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-14669f15615e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:24.611838Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "518620288313023888",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:09.908459Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "630083017705289418",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:22.165417Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "596305411434979669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:22.165417Z"
},
{
"price": 2.01,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "635712445338920863",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:22.165417Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620288313427412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:33.949346Z"
},
{
"price": 0.99,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "652600943945535924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:32.641458Z"
},
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "507361289453312365",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.777284Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "520872088106613300",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:46.808216Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:59.999027Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:5+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.51 Dragon Tech 10.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 10.0% $1.18 Downtown 10.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 10.0% $0.80 | $12.25 +218.9% | $4.69 +22.2% | 50.0% | +115.1% | $3.84 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 25.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 25.0% $14.83 Dragon Tech 10.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 10.0% $4.20 Downtown 10.0% $3.53 Flora Carnivora 10.0% $1.74 | $26.93 +164.0% | $12.00 +17.6% | 50.0% | +91.6% | $10.20 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 25.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.24 Crazy 8 10.0% $0.71 Vent Rush 10.0% $0.70 Dragon Tech 10.0% $0.69 Flora Carnivora 10.0% $0.69 | $5.85 +168.4% | $2.37 +8.7% | 50.0% | +93.4% | $2.18 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.48 Dragon Tech 14.0% $1.32 Vent Rush 14.0% $1.12 Downtown 14.0% $1.09 Crazy 8 14.0% $0.79 | $12.25 +378.3% | $3.22 +25.7% | 30.0% | +151.5% | $2.56 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 45.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 45.0% $15.24 Dragon Tech 2.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 2.0% $4.20 Downtown 2.0% $3.53 Flora Carnivora 2.0% $1.74 | $26.93 +71.9% | $19.29 +23.2% | 45.0% | +46.8% | $15.66 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.51 Dragon Tech 8.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 8.0% $1.18 Downtown 8.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 8.0% $0.80 | $12.25 +177.7% | $5.43 +23.1% | 60.0% | +102.1% | $4.41 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.51 Dragon Tech 6.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 6.0% $1.21 Downtown 6.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 6.0% $0.80 | $12.25 +141.0% | $6.17 +21.4% | 35.0% | +88.3% | $5.08 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.51 Dragon Tech 12.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 12.0% $1.21 Downtown 12.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 12.0% $0.80 | $12.25 +274.5% | $3.96 +21.1% | 40.0% | +129.0% | $3.27 | — |